Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025

I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft. Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play. The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2. They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season. Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs. Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG. Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too. I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range. If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early. Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under. Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays. Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings. If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.

Note: hard rock had 9.5, and that is meaningful from 8.5 so be sure to get that one if you can I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft. Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play. The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2. They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season. Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs. Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG. Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too. I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range. If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early. Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under. Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays. Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings. If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.

I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft. Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play. The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2. They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season. Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs. Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG. Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too. I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range. If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early. Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under. Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays. Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings. If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/IlEcwUOFiYb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb