NFL Week 11 features a 15-game slate, which has only the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints enjoying a bye week.
For my Week 11 picks, we have under predictions, a moneyline bet, and several rushing and receiving yards props for players like Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy and Rico Dowdle, plus anytime touchdown props for Woody Marks and Trey McBride, among others. I also have a spread pick for Sunday Night Football between the Lions and Eagles — plus an MVP futures prediction tied to that NFC showdown.
Let's get to my NFL Week 11 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 11 Predictions
Chiefs vs Broncos Under Mineshafts
I took the Chiefs–Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft.
Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels, posting a -0.31 EPA per play.
The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets,Giants, or any number of others en route to 8-2.
They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards per play on a 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season.
Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs.
Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year. Just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games these past two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27 for a mere 32.0 PPG.
Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams also rank in the top five in both the first-half and the second-half under.
I still like Under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: Under 37.5 at +248 and Under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range.
If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early.
Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first-quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under.
Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays.
Play the first quarter Under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings.
If we hit that one, we'll be well set up for our full-game unders too.
Pick: Chiefs at Broncos Mineshaft Under 37.5/33.5 & 1Q Mineshaft
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Bengals vs Steelers Props
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell, especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh, too, with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game Over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. However, with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10-yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Warren & Kenneth Gainwell Props
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Panthers vs Falcons Player Props: Rico Dowdle Escalator
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones, with no bye week, to face another game, entering with a rest-and-travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked third in DVOA on defense in the first five games of the season, but dropped to 14th since, and they're in the bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks in the top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and running backs' TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is particularly bad against inside runs, ranking dead last in EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily in its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third-most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up Rico Dowdle for a huge game.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed in the previous four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average in the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
Pick: Rico Dowdle 140+ Rushing Yards (+600) + Escalator
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Texans vs Titans Anytime TD Pick
I really wanted to back Houston in this game. I trust the Texans defense against Cam Ward and the awful Titans, even after the bye.
The issue is that there are so many Texans injuries, chief among them C.J. Stroud, and the last seven meetings between these division rivals have seen just 35 PPG. That makes it challenging to touch a spread of around a touchdown.
I do think the Texans score, though.
Houston's offensive struggles are no secret — but they haven't come against every team.
In four games against opponents ranked in the top half of the league by Defensive DVOA, the Texans average 15.5 PPG, failing to crack 20 points yet on the season. But in their other five games against bottom-half defenses, Houston leaps all the way to 28.4 PPG.
There's no question which of those Tennessee is. The Titans rank 25th on the season and are probably worse than that with injuries and transactions at this point.
So if Houston does score on this defense, with whatever bodies are out there, who will it be?
Probably Woody Marks.
Marks is the clear bell cow now in Houston, taking over for Nick Chubb, and he's already scored four touchdowns this season.
No team allows more touchdowns to opposing RBs than the Titans. In fact, Tennessee has allowed every opposing RB1 to find the endzone this season, outside of just one game.
We're getting a discount price on an Anytime TD for Marks at +150 (BetMGM) because of the lack of faith in Houston. Bet on Woody Marks scoring a touchdown, and place a portion of your bet on two touchdowns at +1100 (FanDuel).
Pick: Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+150)
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49ers vs Cardinals Anytime Touchdown Prediction
San Francisco may finally have the injury edge in a game.
It looks like Brock Purdy should return at last, and maybe Ricky Pearsall as well, while Arizona is missing all sorts of bodies.
Will Johnson and Walter Nolan are doubts in defense, Kyler Murray is out, and the weapons on offense are down to practice squad guys, with Marvin Harrison and Zay Jones out, along with Arizona's top three running backs.
About the only guy left is TE Trey McBride, and he's been an absolute superstar of late, finding incredible chemistry with Brissett.
In four games together, McBride has 32 catches for 328 yards and five scores. He has at least one touchdown in every Brissett game, and these last four games would pace to an all-time tight end season: 135 catches for 1,400 yards and 21 TDs.
McBride should get plenty of opportunities with so many teammates out, and the 49ers defense is ripe for the picking. It's been especially poor over the middle and against the slot, and it has allowed three TDs to tight ends in just the last two games.
I looked at all of the McBride lines to invest, but his upside is mostly already priced in at receptions and yards.
Touchdowns are more unreliable, but Arizona should score on this defense, and McBride is easily its most likely TD threat. Bet on an Anytime TD at +120 (Fanatics), a gift price with a plus in front of it for a guy this hot.
In my Extra Point this week, I recommended McBride too as the season leader for receiving touchdowns at +8000 (Caesars).
Davante Adams leads with nine, a clear favorite with his red zone abilities, but he's playing with an oblique injury. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Dallas Goedert are ahead of McBride's six TDs, so if he keeps up this scoring pace with Brissett, he should be in the mix.
Pick: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+120)
Ravens vs Browns Player Props: Jerry Jeudy
This game looks pretty ugly.
On a weekend full of blustery weather, this one could get the worst of it — low 40s and winds in the 20s, with a low total and an ugly game expected.
These longtime rivals have split the season series six of the last seven years, so don't be surprised if Cleveland's stout defense helps the Browns hang around more than you think. If you disagree, Ravens team total Over 23.5 is a gift — the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in every Lamar Jackson win the last two seasons.
That weather may mean a lack of passing, but I'm still looking at a Browns pass catcher, presumed WR1 Jerry Jeudy.
Cleveland turned over its offense to OC Tommy Rees during its bye week, and he made his intentions for the offense pretty clear in his first game calling plays against the Jets last week.
The Browns threw 25 passes in the first half; 11 of them were directed toward Jeudy. That's a huge target load, 44% of the passes, and he had his best half of the season with five catches for 66 yards and a score.
Rees made it clear he wants to get the ball to the one-star talent in his receiving corps, so I'm following the hunch and investing before lines adjust.
The Ravens have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season and the second most receptions per game at 13.8. Even as the defense has improved, opponents are passing on them.
Jeudy hasn't had a great season, but even in an off year, he's still had at least 43 yards receiving in over half his games, five of nine. That makes his Over 39.5 yards line a no-brainer at DraftKings (-110).
He's only hit 60 yards twice this season, but has still done so in 10 of his last 19 outings, again over half, so 60+ yards at +243 is worth part of the bet, too.
The weather and game conditions could make a huge yardage total tough to come by, especially since Dillon Gabriel can't get the ball down the field. Perhaps just reception volume is in play.
Jeudy has at least six receptions in eight of his last 18 games, almost half, but the target share is key. When he gets double-digit targets like he did last week in the first half alone, he's had at least six catches in seven of his past eight games.
If the targets are there, the volume should be too. Bet 6+ Jeudy receptions at +350 (bet365) and let's hope Rees continues to build the offense around his best playmaker.
Pick: Jerry Jeudy Over 39.5 Rec. Yds (-110), 60+ Yds (+243) & 6 Receptions (+350)
Seahawks vs Rams Longest Reception Picks
Seahawks-Rams is the new Game of the Year this week, and it looks awesome.
These teams rank first and second in DVOA, with both offenses and defenses in the top six, and five of the last six meetings have finished within six points or less, two in overtime.
I lean Rams. They're playing at home with the QB I trust more — we haven't seen Sam Darnold in many negative scripts yet, and now he's on the road with a couple of injured offensive linemen — and Seattle's rushing attack is perhaps the biggest weakness for either team.
If you feel good about a side, you should think about investing in that team's futures — for the NFC 1-seed or to win the NFC or Super Bowl.
The most intriguing part of the matchup is Sean McVay's newfound love of 13 personnel.
If you're unfamiliar, "13" means one running back and three tight ends on the field, and McVay's Rams had run only 84 plays ever in 13 personnel in his first 137 games before everything changed over the last month.
Suddenly 40% of Rams plays have come in 13 over the last four games, including 45% on Sunday, the second-highest by any team in any NFL game in the past decade. In those plays from 13 personnel, the Rams averaged 6.7 yards a play with 63% Success Rate and 20% explosives.
So why does it all matter?
The goal of 13 personnel is to play heavy and force the defense to match with fewer defensive backs. Mike Macdonald's defense prefers to play in nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six), getting his team's cadre of corners and safeties on the field and defending the pass.
However, opponents have matched the Rams' 13 personnel with some version of base defense — four defensive backs — on 93% of those snaps over the last four games. That typically means more linebackers on the field, and that's the weakest spot on Seattle's defense, especially with Ernest Jones banged up.
McVay is baiting opponents to put extra linebackers on the field, then attacking them with his tight ends. It's the ultimate chess game, and he's putting opponent after opponent in checkmate.
More 13 has meant more runs from Blake Corum and way fewer snaps and targets for Davante Adams and especially Puka Nacua. But as you might suspect, it's also meant more production from Rams tight ends.
Seattle has allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends and top five yards, and I'm looking at 6'5 Oregon rookie Terrance Ferguson.
Ferguson played only eight snaps in the first five Rams games, but he's been on the field closer to a third of the snaps during this 13 personnel stretch. While Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson are playing more snaps, they're also playing almost twice as many run snaps as pass.
Ferguson is the passing weapon, with athleticism to stretch the field and attack. He has 11 targets on the season, and 10 of them are classified as long, with an absurd 22.5 ADOT, effectively doubling every other tight end in the league.
Ferguson has only five catches in his career, but they've gone for 18, 21, 31, 32, and 36 yards. He may only touch the ball once all game, but when he does, it's usually explosive.
Split your bet on Ferguson Over 12.5 yards for the longest catch (-115) and longest catch 20+ at +210, both at bet365. Every catch of his career cashes the first bet, so just one reception should do, and all but one cash the second. Seattle has already allowed eight 20-yard receptions to tight ends this season.
Three of Ferguson's five catches are 30+ yards, so touch that too at +550 (bet365) for longest reception, but I'll also play 60+ total yards at +1000 in case he doesn't get one long catch but does get unleashed for a few big plays.
Could Terrance Ferguson be Sean McVay's secret weapon?
Pick: Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yds (-115) + Escalator
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Lions vs Eagles Spread Prediction; Jared Goff Futures
For all the talk about Rams-Seahawks, this game could wind up just as important in the NFC.
We already know the Lions and Eagles are built for the playoffs, having seen them each go on deep runs. Playoff football is about running the ball and playing defense, exactly what these teams have built their identities around.
Right now, though, Detroit is better at both.
The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, top five by DVOA. The Eagles are coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season after adding Jaelan Phillips, but they are still just 13th in DVOA on the season.
As for the rushing attacks, the Lions appear to have the advantage both ways.
Detroit ranks 6th in DVOA running the ball while the Eagles rank just 21st in defense. Flip it around and the Eagles are a surprising 22nd by DVOA rushing, while the Lions rank 7th.
Saquon Barkley just hasn't hit those explosives this season, and four of five Eagles linemen are on the injury report. That line hasn't been as good as it was in past years.
For all the talk about Philadelphia's improvement, Detroit also took a big step last week. Dan Campbell took over playcalling, and the impact was immediately apparent.
The Lions rank top three by EPA per play in both motion and play-action plays, and they immediately used more motion with Campbell and nearly doubled their play-action calls. That could be a huge problem for the Eagles, since they rank 29th by EPA per play defending playaction.
Both sides have important injuries, and it's never fun backing Jared Goff on the road in a windy environment, but Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball, with superior special teams and coaching. The Lions are also a luck side in our Luck Rankings.
Grab Lions +3 while it's there (ESPN Bet) at the key, or best number available.
I actually make the Lions the favorite, so I'm inclined to bet on a win, too. Just the moneyline isn't enticing enough, but Detroit has won nine straight games by at least six points so let's place a portion of the bet on Lions -5.5 at +246 (DraftKings).
The futures angle here is clear — bet MVP for the QB on the team you expect to win.
The MVP race appears to be wide open. Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win this award, so the prices for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appear way off with their teams in the wild-card race, and upstart Drake Maye has the MVP target on his back now.
The Eagles enter the weekend at 52% to be a top-two seed, while the Lions are at 40%. Whichever team wins will be in contention with the Rams-Seahawks winner for the top spot in the NFC, and that could be the kingmaker spot.
Hurts is on pace for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs, including rushing, with only two interceptions. Goff is on pace for 4,200 yards passing with 38 TDs and six picks, and his passing rate went up with Campbell calling plays.
The Lions still have a number of marquee games on the schedule — Packers on Thanksgiving, Cowboys the following Thursday night, a huge late afternoon game against the Rams and the Vikings on Christmas. The Lions will be favored in every game the rest of the season except that Rams one — an obvious narrative revenge spot against his old team.
Hurts and Goff are priced similarly for MVP to guys like Justin Herbert (playing with no offensive line), Baker Mayfield (whose entire supporting cast is injured), and Lamar Jackson (who has under a 3% shot at a top-two seed).
If we like the Lions, we have to like Goff for MVP in a wide-open race. That's the ultimate Lions escalator on Sunday night at +3000 (ESPN Bet).
Pick: Lions +3 (-115); Jared Goff MVP (+3000; ESPN Bet)
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Giants vs Lions (Week 12 Lookahead Pick)
Nothing super fancy here. I probably don't need to work too hard to tell you why to like the Lions over the Giants.
It's the line that's the play here, with FanDuel still offering Lions -9.5 while books like DraftKings are already at -11.5. Ten can still be a key number, and it wouldn't be shocking to see this line push 13 or 14 by kickoff with teaser protection.
I like the Lions to beat the Eagles on Sunday night — see above — and the Giants should struggle with the Packers in a bad matchup for Jameis Winston. That leaves a bad team missing its top QB, RB, and WR against a bona fide Super Bowl contender in Detroit, and no more dead-cat bounce coming off firing its coach either.
The Giants' run defense is key here.
New York ranks dead last in run defense by both DVOA and EPA per play. The Giants simply haven't stopped opposing runners all season, especially on outside runs where Jahmyr Gibbs thrives. Detroit should run all over the Giants.
This line is about what I'd make it in New York, but it should be closer to two TDs in Detroit. Nine straight Lions wins have come by six or more points, so this isn't asking for much more.
Grab Lions -9.5 (FanDuel) while it's available.
Pick: Lions -9.5
Brandon's NFL Week 11 Betting Card
- Chiefs at Broncos Mineshaft Under 37.5/33.5 & 1Q Mineshaft
- Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Warren & Kenneth Gainwell Props
- Rico Dowdle 140+ Rushing Yards (+600) + Escalator
- Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (-105)
- Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+120)
- Jerry Jeudy Over 39.5 Rec. Yds (-110), 60+ Yds (+243) & 6 Receptions (+350)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yds (-115) + Escalator
- Lions +3 (-115); Jared Goff MVP (+3000)
NFL Week 12 Lookahead Pick
- Lions -9.5
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