Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 11 on Sunday, November 16.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 11 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Packers vs Giants |
| Buccaneers vs Bills |
| Bengals vs Steelers |
| Texans vs Titans |
| Bears vs Vikings |
| Panthers vs Falcons |
| Chargers vs Jaguars |
| Seahawks vs Rams |
| 49ers vs Cardinals |
| Ravens vs Browns |
| Chiefs vs Broncos |
Packers vs. Giants
The Giants' defense plays the most man coverage in the NFL while also playing single-high safety at the third-highest rate. They also rank bottom three in targets, catches and yards to WRs with nine TDs allowed to the position.
I know this might line up better for WR Romeo Doubs since he’s had some decent moments this season, but if he’s back healthy, my eyes gravitate to WR Christian Watson at +270.
He’s been dealing with injuries the last two seasons, but his playing time has ramped up each week and he played a season-high in snaps in Week 10, while also running the second-most routes on the Packers over the last three games.
He’s led the team in aDOT in that span as well, so given his snap rate, TD pedigree, and prime matchup, I’m going to back on Watson to get another TD this week.
One thing we know for sure, if QB Jameis Winston is starting an NFL game, the range of possibilities for the Giants are endless.
It could be a passing shootout, it could be a grind where the offense can’t do anything, it could be a game where Winston throws four picks and gets sacked six times.
With that kind of volatility, it’s hard to bank on what may come, but TE Theo Johnson might be the way to go here.
The Packers play zone at a top-10 rate, and Johnson’s target rate is way higher against zone than when they see man coverages.
He also leads all Giants pass-catchers in end zone targets and touchdowns (5), with the next closest Giant only having two.
It may get ugly for Winston, but with six of his 13 passing TDs last season going to Browns TE1 David Njoku, I think if the Giants score a receiving TD, then Winston will target his star TE.
Verdict: Christian Watson +270 | Theo Johnson +280
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
Another Bills game, another week where I’m betting on WR Khalil Shakir to score a TD.
He leads the team with eight red-zone targets, and has been pretty decent against zone coverage and two-high safety this season.
I bring that up because the Buccaneers tend to use those coverages the most, and Shakir has much better receiver metrics against zone than when he sees man coverage.
With the Bills sending 29 targets his way over the last four games, and TE Dalton Kincaid likely out this week, I like Shakir to be leaned on even more in this spot.
The Buccaneers' passing game has been unreal to watch this season — nearly any WR has been plug-and-play to produce and score touchdowns.
That being said, the weather in Buffalo has me doubtful on QB Baker Mayfield threading the needle through the Bills secondary, and likely will lean on the short pass to move the offense.
This is a bit of a gross pick, but let’s ride with WR Sterling Shepard this week at +450.
He’s a bit of a “Cardio King” since he’s running a route on 68% of dropbacks but only seeing a measly 12% target share.
The good news is, by default, he’s second on the team in red-zone targets (4), and he’s got the lowest aDOT on the team for all Bucs wide receivers.
If you want to take WR Emeka Egbuka at +155, nobody will blame you, but I think Shepard will see an uptick in targets this week to try to catch the Bills defense off guard.
Verdict: Khalil Shakir +250 | Sterling Shepard +450
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Bengals vs. Steelers
In four games with Joe Flacco at QB, WR Tee Higgins has been a touchdown machine!
He’s scored four of his six TDs in just the last three games, including one against the Steelers, who he faces in Week 11.
The Steelers play man coverage at a top-five rate along with a top-three rate of single-high safety, which bodes well for both Higgins and WR Ja'Marr Chase, as they both have crushed in those spots historically.
With Chase down to -125 and Higgins at +170, I’ll take my chances with Flacco that he’ll spray the ball all over the field with both Chase and Higgins seeing a ton of targets.
I’ve been burned when backing Steelers WR Calvin Austin over the last few weeks as he hasn’t been able to recapture the early season momentum when he scored in two of four games.
Well, if ever there was a get-right spot, this is the week against a Bengals pass defense that has been horrendous and has allowed the most passing TDs in the NFL.
Since coming back from injury (three games), Austin leads the team in total targets and catches, but hasn’t seen any red-zone targets.
However, with how weak the Bengals are in defending the pass, I’m willing to overlook it for Austin, especially since we’re getting +350 for a TD.
Verdict: Calvin Austin +350 | Tee Higgins +170
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Texans vs. Titans
With the possibility of Davis Mills starting at quarterback again for the Texans, he’ll at least have a decent matchup against the Titans where he may not be asked to do as much on the passing front.
The Titans are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL with the most rushing TDs allowed, and the last time these teams played, the Texans defense overwhelmed Tennessee and lost 26-0.
That’s why RB1 Woody Marks is the most-favored to score, but I still don't think the Texans offense will just able to run the ball the entire game.
So, I’m looking at WR1 Nico Collins to get back on the scoreboard in Week 11.
Even though he hasn’t scored a TD in the three games, he’s still saw 36 total targets in that span and leads the team with 11 red-zone targets.
We could probably find more value on WR Jayden Higgins (+500) or WR Xavier Hutchinson (+900), but the production for those WRs has been pretty hit or miss.
If Collins isn’t enough, pivot to Higgins then, because he’s scored in two of the last three games and seems to have leapt over Hutchinson in the WR room at this stage for snap rate and route participation.
As for the Titans, I’m passing on them this week.
I don’t like to bet opposing WRs against the Texans since they’re so strong on the outside, and while I would consider a TE since they’ve allowed eight TDs to the position this season, it’s debatable on the Titans to who would be the best target for a TD.
If you want to take a swing on rookie TE Gunnar Helm at +750, that’s about as far as I’d go, but even that could be tricky with TE Chig Okonkwo still getting meaningful snaps.
Verdict: Nico Collins +145 | Pass on Titans
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Bears vs. Vikings
This will be my third week in a row betting on Bears' WR Olamide Zaccheaus, and I have no shame.
He scored in Week 9 against the Bengals, and while he didn’t find the end zone in Week 10 against the Giants, I like his chances to bounce-back against the aggressive Vikings defense.
Minnesota blitzes a ton while playing zone at top-five rate, along with playing two-high safety at the highest rate in the NFL.
This lines up for Zaccheaus, as he leads the team in targets per route run against zone and two-high safety, while being an outlet for QB Caleb Williams when he decides to improvise and make off-schedule throws.
With Zaccheaus having more targets than WR2 DJ Moore, who continues to see his role reduced each week, I like Zaccheaus to continue getting peppered with targets in this one.
My initial lean for the Vikings was TE TJ Hockenson, as he’s been involved a lot recently in the red-zone for the Vikings offense and has a decent matchup against the Bears.
However, I think with his backup coming back, we go to TE Josh Oliver this week at +850.
Oliver missed the last two games with a sprained foot, but the Vikings always seem to design plays for him in the red zone.
He has three red-zone targets in just 33 routes run this season, while also seeing the highest target rate per route run on the team against man coverage, which the Bears play at a top-10 rate.
Now, he may only see one to two targets all game, but with how they use him and his ability to block in the run game, I think he could score this week in his return to the lineup.
Verdict: Olamide Zaccheaus +450 | Josh Oliver +1000
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Panthers vs. Falcons
It’s super chalky, but we have to keep riding with WR Drake London in this spot.
He’s scored four TDs over the last two games, and this matchup is primed for him to keep racking up touchdowns.
Only six of the Panthers' 13 receiving TDs have been given up to WRs, but London’s target rate against zone is too much to ignore.
He’s at an elite level with a 0.36 targets per route run against zone, with only WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and WR Puka Nacua exceeding him in that category.
Coming off a dud game against the Panthers in Week 3, I expect him to see 10+ targets in a matchup where the Panthers rank 26th in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Last week, we targeted Colts WR Alec Pierce in this matchup against Atlanta because of how well he did against zone defenses and single-high coverage.
The Falcons play zone at a top-10 rate, while playing single-high at the highest rate in the NFL.
The Panthers' best pass-catching option that does well against those coverages is WR Tetairoa McMillan at +230.
He’s only scored in one game, but he leads the Panthers passing offense in red-zone targets, endzone targets, deep targets, and route rate.
The Panthers are road 'dogs this week, and could be in a trailing game script with more passing needed than the last matchup.
So, let’s bank on the rookie to score his third TD of the season.
Verdict: Tet McMillan +230 | Drake London +125
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Chargers vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars' pass defense might be a huge mess.
They’ve fallen to 22nd in defensive DVOA against the pass and have allowed 19 passing TDs, with seven of those coming to tight ends.
Even Davis Mills carved them up last week.
I think you know where I’m going here, and that’s rookie TE Oronde Gadsden for the Chargers.
He’s been a favorite of Sean Koerner’s since the jump with Sean comparing him to Darren Waller.
I know he hurt his leg last week against the Steelers, but all reports say that it was just a minor injury and he’ll practice this week.
If he’s active, he’s a must-bet for a TD prop based on the Chargers' passing upside in this matchup, considering he’s seen the second-highest target-rate on the team against zone, along with the highest yards per route run.
If he ends up not playing, just pivot to the Charger WR that has the highest odds this week, which would be Keenan Allen, who’s also been excellent against zone.
The Jaguars made a mini-splash at the trade deadline for WR Jakobi Meyers, and I think he could get his first score of the season against the Chargers this week.
He’s obviously going to be very familiar with the Chargers' defense playing in the AFC West with the Raiders for the last few seasons.
Playing mostly out of the slot, he’s historically been used mostly when facing zone defenses and two-high safety looks.
Well, the Chargers play both at a top-five rate.
Meyers only played 44% of snaps in Week 10, but that should increase with another week of practice.
The Jaguars gave up two draft picks for him, and he’s used to playing over 90% of snaps with the Raiders.
So, I fully expect his snap count and route rate to see a huge jump in a matchup where he might be needed more with WR1 Brian Thomas Jr. still nursing an ankle injury.
Verdict: Oronde Gadsden +220 | Jakobi Meyers +250
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Seahawks vs. Rams
Full disclosure: I don’t love this game for touchdown props.
The Seahawks' passing offense has moments where they erupt, and then there are other times where they completely lean on the run, and the game turns into a grind.
If I’m betting a Seahawk this week, I’ll settle for WR Cooper Kupp at +400.
This isn’t the same version of Kupp as we saw in Los Angeles, as tracking data is showing he’s a bit slower on his breaks on routes.
That being said, he might need to play a bigger role this week with WR Tory Horton out and should get back to his typical 70% route participation.
Of course, you will see a lot of bets on Kupp this week just for the “Revenge Game” narrative. But really, this is more of a play on the TD odds, which are the highest of the season for Kupp.
Even the Rams are a tough sell this week for TD props because all their top options are steamed, but if we’re picking a TD scorer, it’s gotta be RB Kyren Williams at plus-money.
He’s coming off a two-touchdown game against the Niners last week, and has scored six TDs over his last five games.
I know the Seahawks are a tougher matchup, but in games where the opposing RB1 didn’t score, it was mainly because the Seahawks blitzkrieged teams and the opponent would abandon the run altogether, especially in the red zone.
I don’t expect that to happen with the Rams, who have been equally as good against the run and have an offense that can generate explosives on the regular.
If this is a neutral or positive game script, we take Kyren at plus-money every time.
Verdict: Cooper Kupp +400 | Kyren Williams +110
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49ers vs. Cardinals
For the third game in a row, I’m going back to WR Jauan Jennings on the 49ers to score a touchdown.
Jennings is the WR1 in this offense now and has scored in back-to-back games against two different styles of defenses with the Giants playing more man coverage, while the Rams lean more into zone defenses.
That’s why I would typically bet on him each week when we get +200 or better, because he’s shown that he can thrive against all types of coverage over the last two years.
This week against the Cardinals, he could be in line to score again, as they play zone at the 11th-highest rate and two-high safety at the fifth-highest rate.
Jennings leads the team in targets per route run against those coverages, which was the same as last season; QB Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, it won’t really matter.
Last time these two teams played, it was a final score of 16-15 and a grind from start to finish.
Cardinals TE Trey McBride got a garbage time TD to pad his stats, but over the last four games, no TE in the NFL has been more targeted in the red zone than that guy.
He’s got 13 red-zone targets with 10 in the end zone since QB Jacoby Brissett took over, and he looks like the best TE in football right now with five TDs in that span.
The Niners defense isn’t what it was in Week 4 when these teams faced off, considering they've surrendered three TDs to TE over the last two games.
Given how they force-feed McBride in this offense, I can’t consider anyone else at this stage unless we get WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at +200 or better.
Verdict: Jauan Jennings +240 | Trey McBride +130
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Ravens vs. Browns
I know it’s likely going to be crappy weather in Cleveland this weekend, but I can’t ignore TE Mark Andrews in this matchup.
He’s caught three touchdowns over the last two games, and all five of his TDs on the year have come with QB Lamar Jackson in the lineup.
Another reason why I want him in this spot is how he’s fared over a decent sample size against man coverages.
The Browns play man at a top-three rate, with second-highest rate of single-high safety.
Andrews has the highest target rate and yards-per-route-run rate on the team against man defense, and leads the Ravens with three TD against man.
He’s also pretty familiar by now with this Jim Schwartz-led Browns defense, as he scored in both games against them last season.
Much like the Browns, the Ravens also play a lot of man defense and single-high safety, but over the last four games, Baltimore’s defense has gotten healthy, which means touchdowns might be hard to come by.
When these teams played each other in Week 2, we targeted WR Cedric Tillman and got super lucky because he caught a TD that was tipped by a defender into the end zone in Week 3.
While we can’t count on that same luck again, it is encouraging that he played 73% of snaps in Week 10 after returning from injury with an end zone target.
At +550, I’m willing to take a chance on Tillman in this spot, as he’s historically seen a target bump against man coverages, and Browns could be throwing a lot in the second half in a potential trailing game script as big home 'dogs.
Verdict: Mark Andrews +230 | Cedric Tillman +700
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
Another Troy Franklin sighting!
I love him to score again as he’s tallied TDs in three of the last four games with four TDs total.
Franklin is a huge threat in the Broncos' passing offense — he leads them in red-zone targets (14), which ranks fifth in the NFL, with eight of those targets coming in the end zone.
He's facing a Chiefs pass defense this week that is pretty tough overall, but I like his chances to score another touchdown because Franklin leads the team in target share against man coverage and leads all Broncos WRs in targets per route run against two-high safety, which the Chiefs play both at a top-10 rate.
With Franklin lining up in the slot over 50% of the time, he likely will get to avoid the tougher cornerback matchup of Trent McDuffie, and it’s pretty telling that WR1 Courtland Sutton has higher odds to score this week than Franklin, which hasn’t been the case in any game this season.
It's a super chalky pick for the Chiefs side, but I think RB Kareem Hunt is the only player that I feel comfortable betting on in this matchup.
The Broncos have only allowed three TDs to wide receivers all season, and their eight TDs allowed ranks first in the NFL.
I’m not saying QB Patrick Mahomes won’t be able to throw at all, but the betting odds don’t reflect how hard of a matchup this may be for the Chiefs' passing game.
That’s why I think Hunt is the way to go — the Chiefs have shown that when they get into scoring range in the red-zone, Hunt is the back they trust. He has 12 carries inside the 10-yard line, compared to RB Isiah Pacheco, who only has four.
Now, some of that is because of Pacheco missing games due to injury, but Hunt has shown he is more than capable of getting the job done, with five rushing TDs and a receiving TD on the season.
The Broncos' run defense is fairly tough as well, but they’ve allowed an RB1 to score on them in three of the last four games (four TDs overall).
Verdict: Troy Franklin +210 | Kareem Hunt +120
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