The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) and Denver Broncos (8-2) clash today in NFL Week 11. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. Chiefs vs Broncos will broadcast on CBS.
The Chiefs are 4.5-point spread favorites over the Broncos (Chiefs -4.5; -105); the game total is 44.5 (-115o / -105u). The Chiefs are -225 moneyline favorites and the Broncos are +184 underdogs.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Broncos predictions for Week 11, plus the latest NFL odds, betting trends, injury reports, weather forecast and more.
Chiefs vs Broncos Predictions, Picks
- Chiefs vs Broncos pick: Over 44.5
My Chiefs vs Broncos best bet is the total to go over 44.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Odds, Lines
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -104 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -225 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -118 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | +184 |
Chiefs vs Broncos Preview, Prediction
Almost two-thirds of all wagers on the total in this game have been on the under up to this point, but I am seeing this game playing out in a different manner.
The Chiefs had scored 28 or more points in five consecutive games before their worst performance of the year in Buffalo two weeks ago. Coming off their bye week, I expect their level of focus and play to peak once again — Patrick Mahomes is 6-1 in his career off the Chiefs’ bye week.
Mahomes was pressured on 47% of his dropbacks against Buffalo, but the Kansas City offensive line was dealing with several injuries. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons is expected to return to the lineup today. Before his absence, he played the two best games of his young career, allowing pressure just once in each game.
Protecting Mahomes is crucial because the Denver pass rush is elite. Simmons has the athleticism to at least limit some of the pressures Mahomes would otherwise have to deal with.
Furthermore, head coach Andy Reid will devise a game plan that features the short passing attack, as the Chiefs have had to do several times in recent seasons when either their offensive line or offensive weapons were not up to par.
Without Patrick Surtain II and Alex Singleton, the Broncos defense is still in the upper echelon of the league, but it may not be the exact unit needed to slow down an elite offense. I am not going to overreact to the Broncos' dominant defensive performance against the likes of the Jets, Raiders and Texans in recent weeks.
Kansas City's pass rush numbers may seem like it can pressure the passer, but it does not have the talent to win one-on-one matchups consistently.
The Broncos’ offensive line leads the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed, and they feature two of the best pass protectors in the league in Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz. The game plan is quite simple for opposing offenses when dealing with the pass rush of Kansas City: double-team Chris Jones and force the others to win their individual matchups.
The Chiefs are down to 17th in the NFL in yards per play allowed defensively. Denver should be able to sustain drives and hit some explosive plays against a reeling defense.
A hidden factor that may lead to more possessions in this game is the lack of a running game for each team.
J.K. Dobbins will miss this game for the Broncos. RJ Harvey will lead the backfield for Denver in this game. Harvey ranks 44th out of 45 qualifying running backs in rushing success rate this season.
For Kansas City, it’ll be Kareem Hunt as the starter once again. The Chiefs will undoubtedly put the ball in the hands of Mahomes in a borderline must-win contest and Sean Payton won't be relying too heavily on a rookie running back in such a critical spot in the season.
Chiefs vs Broncos Predictions, Over/Under Pick
I mentioned that the majority of wagers have been placed on the under in this spot, yet this total opened in the 44-44.5 range and oddsmakers have moved this total to 45 in most places.
Forty-five is a key number when betting totals and I’d line shop to make sure to snag the best number on the board in case of a 24-21 or 28-17 type final.
Play the over here in a game I expect both squads to feature their passing attack.
Pick: Over 44.5
Chiefs vs Broncos Betting Trends
Chiefs vs Broncos Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 16 |
| Time: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
Chiefs vs Broncos Weather Forecast
