Chargers vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - September 16, 2025

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Adolf Bievler

📚Player Profit 🔑 Raiders ML +160 (Player Profit) 3u I truly think Pete Carroll hates Harbaugh and that matters here. I can see a let down for chargers after the win in Brazil over the chiefs. These odds way too juicy for an at home raiders team that is good. Code: sirlocks for 10% off every deposit at https://www.playerprofit.com/

Projection: +3. For more, check out the Fantasy Life game model.

Projection: 0.75 TDs, -176. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Geno went 24-34 in the Raider's week 1 win against New England with a touchdown and interception. We saw a pretty efficient passing attack from Geno and this offense. Geno held an aDOT of 11.0, while averaging just 7.6 last season. What I like about this is despite throwing deep in week 1, he was still able to clear this 22.5 line. The LAC defense tends to run a lot of Cover 3. In week 1, they ran it at the 8th highest rate (36.3%). That a good coverage scheme to prevent deep plays. However it tends to leave shallow players more open, which could leave more short passes for Geno to make. Shorter passes help us in the completion department. Geno is also a very accurate QB. Of WB's with at least 500 drop backs last season, he ranked 4th highest in completion percentage (70.4%). That's essentially what Joe Burrow did last season (70.6%). In week one? 70.5%! He has viable options in the passing game and it looks like Bowers will play. If the Chargers are a legit wagon on offense this season, we could also see a negative game script here. The passing yards are also not a bad play, but given the matchup I like completions more here.

Profit boost

Pass the Prop best bet

Tailing @Theotherbabs +EV POD

@EvanHAbrams https://myaction.app/puoNyDzFGWb

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Thornton is a 4th-round rookie who saw his stock soar in the preseason and is already starting over 2nd-round pick Jack Bech. That didn’t surprise me since Bech’s route tree overlaps with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, which makes him more of a long-term option for 2026 and beyond if they move on from Meyers. Thornton, on the other hand, is useful right now as a deep threat. He saw 8 preseason targets with a 21.0 aDot and then a 24.8 aDot on 4 targets in Week 1. Three of those were 15+ yards downfield, so simply securing one clears this number. He already did it last week on a 36-yard catch where Geno underthrew him, but he tracked it perfectly. Thornton only played in 3WR sets, and the Raiders led for almost the entire game (trailed for just 7 minutes, the 9th lowest rate of Week 1). In a potentially trailing game script tonight, he could see more playing time and Geno needing to be more aggressive downfield. Geno is one of the league’s better downfield passers, and I can see him treating Thornton as his new “DK Metcalf” downfield option. The Chargers allowed four downfield targets last week. Tyquan Thornton (ironically in a similar role) saw three deep targets and caught one for 38 yards, while Hollywood Brown hauled in a 49-yarder. Those were Mahomes’ only four downfield attempts. Thornton is exactly the type of rookie I want to invest in through the longest reception market, just like Brian Thomas Jr. and Rashid Shaheed early in their careers. He’s going to be a volatile boom/bust option, but that’s exactly why this angle works. I also like his 26.5-yard receiving line, but I prefer this since one catch for 15–26 yards cashes here without needing him to get a second target. I project his median closer to 18.5 with around a 60% chance to clear 14.5. I still show him at about 58% to clear 15.5, so I’d be fine with that too.

Overrated Madison Beer merchant

When he gets hurt in the 2Q, you’re allowed to laugh in my face. When he scores tonight, I get to laugh in your face. Deal?

Have fair on this at -120 after Jeanty played 85% of the snaps in Week 1, handling 19 carries and 2 targets.

Chargers overvalued after beating rat meat Chiefs

MNF play from Action Network podcast

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IYKYK - Raiders played Zone at 4th highest rate in W1 and QJ led NFL with 8TD vs Zone in 2024

THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.55 interceptions for Geno Smith compared to 0.84 interceptions implied by Vegas, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 67% of the time, resulting in a 38% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $37.94. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

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