Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - December 14, 2025

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Tailing @nick_giffen

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Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 263-171-10,61% (ROI:17%) Season:8-8-0,50% (ROI:-4%) Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift Overall: 543-420-12,56% (ROI:9%) Season:20-18-0,53% (ROI:1%)

- Mahomes is averaging 31.3 rushing yards per game this season, going over this line in 9/13 games. - He has been a lot better at home this season, going over in 6/7 and 5 straight, compared to 3/6 on the road. - We have seen Mahomes be more willing to run this season, and we saw that in the 1st game of the season against the Chargers team, where he had 6 attempts for 57 yards. - Chiefs are banged up on their offensive line with both the RG and RT OUT, which should help push Mahomes from the pocket. - The Chargers have allowed almost every running QB to hit their line against them. QB Rush Yards vs LAC: - Mahomes 57 - Smith 20 - Nix 33 - Dart 54 - Daniels 39 - Playoffs are on the line in KC Sunday, and I expect Mahomes to do everything he can to get a win at home. Follow me over on X for more plays + cheat sheets!

Kelce has a longest reception of: • 17+ in 7/L8 Games • 19+ in 7/L8 vs LAC • 17+ in 13/L15 with Rashee Rice Its a great matchup vs LAC as they play the 8th most zone coverage. Kelce vs Zone this season: 2.26 YPRR / .22 TPRR / 13.0 Yds per Reception LAC has the 3rd-Worst DVOA vs TEs this season despite allowing the 6th fewest receptions/game to the position. They’ve allowed 11 TEs over their Longest Reception lines in the last 8 games: ✅ Goedert 16 ✅ Bowers 27 ✅ Thomas 8 ✅ Morris 11 ✅ Mundt 16 ✅ Washington 18 ✅ Freiermuth 15 ✅ Helm 15 ✅ Hockenson 14 ✅ Warren 29 ✅ Hill 14

Luck Rankings

2nd Favorite play for Sunday… 3U MAX(11-4) on our Card👀

QJ likely out so picking off a bad line before it moves to +300

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The Chiefs are now riding a 5 game ATS losing streak and I think it’s time to admit that this isn’t the same Chiefs team. The public agrees (68% of the bets, 72% of the money) usually a signal to look the other way, but I think the betting public is spot on here, especially if they’re going to give us 4 and the hook. 🪝

WEEK 15 LOOKAHEAD These teams play in our final two games of the weekend on Sunday and Monday night, so everyone will be watching. I'm betting on low-scoring games in both of them, taking the under in both. Both teams' offensive lines are in shambles, with each of them missing both starting tackles. The Chargers offense is fading badly, now bottom 10 in DVOA over the last six games, and Justin Herbert is a significant question mark going forward after having surgery on his hand. There's always a chance he could miss this game, leaving Trey Lance and a boosted under. Both coaches tend to be conservative, leading to a lot of long, slow scoring drives. The Chiefs are 8-4 to the under this season, third best in the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes home unders are 38-21-1 in his career (64%), most profitable of any active quarterback. Late in the season from Week 14 forward, it's often profitable to bet the under in division matchups: 134-104-1 to the under (56%) in games with a home favorite under seven points, and 57% to the under in games with a total from 43 to 47 points. Over the last five matchups between these division rivals, the games average just 36.8 PPG, with a max score of 48 points. We're about to watch both offenses struggle to score against terrific Houston and Philadelphia defenses on back-to-back primetime nights, so there's only one direction this line will go. It's already moving that way at some books, and 40-to-44 are all key numbers when it comes to totals. Grab the under 45.5 at FanDuel while it's there.

Week 15 Lookahead @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/6T0qetUiRYb