Colts vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

2.43% ev

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1.52% ev

Supposed to be 58.5 on PX

1.78% ev

Has to be done

This is the biggest game on the schedule, with the 5–5 Chiefs surprisingly fighting for their playoff lives. I really wanted to back the Chiefs but have a hard time past -3. it's hard not to trust the Chiefs at home in such a big spot, especially since the defense is far better at home. The Colts haven't exactly been great against real opponents this season - touchdown losses to the Rams and Steelers, plus a fluky one-point win over the Broncos - but the usually reliable Patrick Mahomes trends haven't held up this season like usual. Mahomes is also 0–4 ATS in his career against opponents coming out of a bye week, and that's especially troubling considering the extra time Indy DC Lou Anarumo has had to get his defense ready for Mahomes since Anarumo has really messed with Mahomes' timing over the years in his time in Cincinnati. But there's another Anarumo pattern we can play: his teams are consistently bad against tight ends. His Bengals allowed the most fantasy points to TEs of any team last year, and this year's Colts are fifth-worst in that metric and by DVOA. Indy's corners are terrific and especially good against WR1s, so Mahomes will need to attack with old reliable, Travis Kelce. The Colts have really only faced two really good tight ends this year. They gave up 8/71 and a TD to Trey McBride and also saw rookie Oronde Gadsden Jr.'s breakout game at 7/164 and a score. Even as Kelce slows down late in his career, he's still producing. He's had at least 47 receiving yards in all but one game this season, so his line of 50.5 yards (-110, BetMGM) is flat out disrespectful. Take the over. Kelce has at least 6/60 in four of his last six games, so you can play that combo as a simple SGP at +192 (FanDuel). Add in a touchdown as well at +390. He's had 6/60/1 in three of his last six. This is pretty close a playoff game for the Chiefs, and Kelce has always been at his best in Kansas City's biggest games.

🪜 20+

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/JFONaGF3tYb

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/XiJckG31tYb

I’m expecting IND to throw the ball at a higher rate for a few reasons. • IND is a +3.5 road underdog (T-Largest spread of the season). They’ve only been underdogs of 3+ points one other time this season (+3.5 vs Rams) and JT had 5 catches that game • KC ranks 1st in Pass Rate Over Expectation & coming off their highest PROE of the season (19.4%) • IND ranks 4th in PROE since Week 7. With both teams expected to throw the ball at a high rate + having above avg run defenses, this should lead to a faster pace and more plays ran. Spags and the KC defense have done a great job historically at limiting star RBs like Jonathan Taylor especially in must win games. This is similar to a playoff game for KC as a loss would really hurt their playoff chances. Last year in the Super Bowl they limited Saquon to 2.3 YPC but he was more involved in the pass game (6 catches). Derrick Henry saw more passing game involvement (than avg) earlier this season vs KC (2 catches/3 targets). KC has been a great matchup for RB receptions too. They rank 11th worst in RB Receiving DVOA. KC has allowed the 3rd highest completion% this season (70.6%) and over the L4 games its even higher (76.7% - worst in NFL). JT has caught 30 of his 32 targets (2 drops). And has 2+ catches in every game this season (3+ in 7/10) Danny Dimes faced this Spags defense one time back in 2021 & targetted his RB 6 times (5 catches).

As much as they screwed me last week from churning out my best NFL week to date by losing to Bo Nix…I’ve decided not to hold a grudge. My numbers spit out KC -4, early market reads indicate this line is going to close closer to 3.5, and matchup wise, I like Kansas City. Steve Spagnuolo will be copy and pasting (with a touch of his own spin) on what the Falcons did to Jones. 7 sacks, constant blitz, forcing multiple fumbles, and that was neutral site. This is at Arrowhead with the season on the line. Even though Indy has been great and they’re off the bye, KC is my first bet of the week - confidently.

DK, no way the 3’s last long