Broncos vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 18, 2024

Fliff

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Via Brian Matthews

Kamara has been a massive piece of this Saints offense and with rookie Spencer Rattler under center, I expect the rookie to lean on him. The Broncos have allowed the 7th most targets to running backs this season and has been an area of weakness. Kamara has hit this line in 4/6 games this season and hit targets are way up. Kamara has been targeted 9,8, and 8 times the last 3 weeks with 7,6, and 5 receptions. He has also destroyed man coverage, which will benefit him here against a Broncos team that runs man at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. He has been targeted 22% against man coverage, second most on the team. Notable RB performances vs DEN: Charbonnet 2 rec 29 yards Vidal 2 rec 40 yards Warren 2 rec 19 yards Mattison 2 rec 23 yards White 5 rec 18 yards Kamara is a better receiving back than all of these running backs and with Rattler making his 2nd career start, he should be looking to Kamara for easy screen and dump offs.

8 and 6 targets in the two games he’s played - clearing this line easily in both games. Hard to see the Broncos taking him off the field given his rapport with Nix - and with no Reynolds, Vele’s route participation was at 76% last week. Running most of his routes out of the slot (literally 111 of 117 of his yards are out of the slot), he gets the ideal matchup vs the Saints. Slot receivers have destroyed them - Godwin (109 of his 125 yards), Juju (63 of his 130), Tolbert (66 of his 82), and even Thielen with Bryce Young (35 of his 49). Goedert destroyed them from the slot as well - only the Falcons didn’t capitalize on the matchup. Payton alluded to wanting to see more of his rookie playmakers (Vele, Franklin and Estime). I’m confident the role is there for him.

2.07% ev and projection to the over

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