Broncos vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 18, 2024

He’s due especially with a rookie QB behind canter.

Bob

🔬 Why is this line 195 when Nix has hit over 200 in 4 of the last 5 games? Because the only qb worse than him in yards per drop back Vs cover 2 is Bryce young & the saints run cover 2 at one of the highest rates in the league 🔬On a short week vs a saints defense missing Pete Warner at linebacker , the saints have allowed 5.4 yards per rush attempt- the broncos shouldn’t have to pass as much as usual whether it be because their up due to all the saints injuries or because they’re just running the ball more efficiently than usual vs this defense 🔬Broncos are also missing a center and right tackle to IR which could allow more pressure or force nix to run 🔬Lattimores shadow coverage of Courtland Sutton helps our cause here as well

@charliedisturco TNF (Denver @ NO) Wheel Pick

S. Rattler ⬇️ 22.5 Rushing Yards (-120 @ MGM)(+100 w/ 20% Boost) THE BLITZ 📽️: 17.85 RushY I know, he's coming off a 4 for 27 rushing day vs Tampa Bay. I'm expecting that line this week vs a solid DEN defensive front. Let's start with Rattler's profile. Here are his last 2 seasons as a rusher in college: 2023: 12 games, 73 rush attempts for 46 yards (3.8 yards per game) 2022: 13 games, 97 RA's for 104 yards (8 yards per game) So he wasn't a runner. 40 time? 4.95, which is just below average for a QB. So, he's not particularly fast. I went back and watch his 4 rushing attempts. None were designed and here's what I noticed about each: Rush 1: fumbled snap, -2 yards Rush 2: 16-yards rush - missed tackle or would have been a couple yards Rush 3: 5-yard rush - defensive blitz, rolls right and just takes what they give him Rush 4: 6-yard rush - rolls left and makes the LB miss or would have just been a 1-2 yard gain. Nothing impressive overall. We likely don't see this line up here if he doesn't get that missed tackle on run 2. Pressure on these roll outs have created most of these opportunities for Rattler. TB blitzes at the 8th highest rate (29.5%). NO only blitzes 21.2% of the time, the 8th lowest rate. I don't think we are going to see Ratler run like he did in week 1 and if he does, I don't think he'll see the same type of success.

@nick_giffen

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Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-pick-tonight-for-bub-means

@GreenDotDaily

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker & @nick_giffen

On this with @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing sharp

Tough spot for New Orleans. They're starting a rookie quarterback who will be without his top two receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) and another weapon in Taysom Hill. Rattler put up some points against a vulnerable pass defense in Week 6, but this matchup vs. Denver will be much tougher, even without Patrick Surtain. On the defensive side, the Saints have to be gassed. They were on the field for 80 plays in Week 5 against Kansas City on Monday Night Football. On a short week, they were out there for 72 plays vs. Tampa Bay in Week 6. Now they'll once again be on short rest facing the Broncos. Denver had their 3-game winning streak halted in Week 6, but this is a great spot to get back on track. It's also a revenge game for head coach Sean Payton, if you're into that sort of thing.

+EV tool. Probably too bullish on it

Sura

Fucked this up clearly.

Sandy

No Olave or Shaheed, someone has to step up in this WR room for the Saints. Showed a solid rapport with Rattler last week in his first start. 7 first read targets from Rattler last week (26.9% 1st read share). He ran 34 routes last week with Olave going down, only behind Shaheed. With Shaheed now out as well, would not be surprised to see Means lead the team in routes this week. Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the NFL so far this season. Means 24% TPRR last week vs the blitz (highest among Saints WRs). Like the fact the he is Rattler’s first read and if you look at his route tree, it’s a lot of out routes which is nice for getting the ball out quick. Pat Surtain is OUT, this helps Means as he’ll be lining up mostly on the outside.

MINESHAFT SZN

Covered in the last two games with catches of 29 and 20 yards. Reynolds is still out (like last game) and Franklin saw a career-high in routes and snap share as a result. His AVG ADOT sits at 14.9, which is great to see for a 12.5 line and that number has climbed over the weeks - Week 6: 16.0 ADOT - Week 5: 35.0 ADOT - Week 4: 15.0 ADOT - Week 3: 9.4 ADOT Saints play man coverage at a top 10 rate in the league - Franklin leads all NO pass-catchers (minimum 10 targets) in YPRR vs. man coverage. He also AVG a 20.2 ADOT on 5 targets vs. man coverage. He’ll have the easier MU on the outside vs. Adebo, as Lattimore will be MU with Sutton. Game is also in a dome, so weather won’t be a factor

Fliff

Upcoming free play!

Via Brian Matthews

Kamara has been a massive piece of this Saints offense and with rookie Spencer Rattler under center, I expect the rookie to lean on him. The Broncos have allowed the 7th most targets to running backs this season and has been an area of weakness. Kamara has hit this line in 4/6 games this season and hit targets are way up. Kamara has been targeted 9,8, and 8 times the last 3 weeks with 7,6, and 5 receptions. He has also destroyed man coverage, which will benefit him here against a Broncos team that runs man at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. He has been targeted 22% against man coverage, second most on the team. Notable RB performances vs DEN: Charbonnet 2 rec 29 yards Vidal 2 rec 40 yards Warren 2 rec 19 yards Mattison 2 rec 23 yards White 5 rec 18 yards Kamara is a better receiving back than all of these running backs and with Rattler making his 2nd career start, he should be looking to Kamara for easy screen and dump offs.

8 and 6 targets in the two games he’s played - clearing this line easily in both games. Hard to see the Broncos taking him off the field given his rapport with Nix - and with no Reynolds, Vele’s route participation was at 76% last week. Running most of his routes out of the slot (literally 111 of 117 of his yards are out of the slot), he gets the ideal matchup vs the Saints. Slot receivers have destroyed them - Godwin (109 of his 125 yards), Juju (63 of his 130), Tolbert (66 of his 82), and even Thielen with Bryce Young (35 of his 49). Goedert destroyed them from the slot as well - only the Falcons didn’t capitalize on the matchup. Payton alluded to wanting to see more of his rookie playmakers (Vele, Franklin and Estime). I’m confident the role is there for him.

2.07% ev and projection to the over

Hitting the @wheatonbrando hot read

Week 7 Hot Read 🔥