Bengals vs. Giants Odds & Betting Predictions - October 14, 2024

Kind of the same logic as the Slayton read - Chase is going to abuse Deonte Banks. Over in 3/5.

🚀Quick write up 🔬The Bengals came out of last weeks loss looking to be aggressive and this is a spot where Higgins is a top 10 wr in target share vs 1 high coverage and Giants run Cover 1 at the 10th highest rate. 🔬Higgins has had 10+ targets in each of the last 2 games after building rapport with Burrow in the off-season as Chase sat out.

Utilization hasn’t been the same with both Tee Higgins and JaMar Chase healthy in the system. His targets per route run is 0.11 (lower than Mike Gesicki, Higgins, and Chase) and this number falls 📉 to 0.03 (3%) in the last two weeks. On top of a low TPRR, since Higgins returned Iosivas has run over 60% of his routes from the slot which means he'll mostly draw the stud rookie slot corner, Dru Phillips. Phillips has allowed just 37 yards all season on 8 receptions. He is one of PFF's highest graded corners despite matching up against Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb, and JSN for some snaps. He also isn't on the injury report this week. I don't mind yardage under here although Iosivas' ADOT has spiked massively the last two weeks and he has lines of 1-39, 1-29 and with the Giants pressuring at such a high rate, it’s Moss/Brown/All Jr./Gisecki getting the looks than him when Burrow is forced to air it out. So It's tough to imagine he keeps up that level of efficiency either way here but I prefer receptions since i'm not even convinced he sees 3 targets here. #PlayerProps

30% odds boost

Coming off a monster week where he saw 11 targets and recorded 8 grabs for 122 yards. I’m not going to extrapolate stats off one game, but per fantasy points data, his first read share was 30% - he essentially was in the Malik Nabers role. I see that as important tonight, because the Bengals can’t defend first reads: Zay Flowers 111 yards, Diontae 83 yards, McLaurin 100, Rice 75 all in the last 4 weeks.

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Giants' defense, despite being ranked 19th by DVOA, is a dominant force in the NFC East, leading the league in sack rate and ranking highly in both pass rush and run stop win rates. They excel at controlling the line of scrimmage, outgaining top offenses, while the Bengals struggle with poor trench play, ranking low in sack rate and line yards per rush, vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.

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@ChrisRaybon

The way I read this game, I see the entire country saying “the Bengals start slow, but they’ll pick it up” and sports betting rookies like to wait for a “comfortable spot” to take a underperforming team to finally pick it up. Seeing 85%+ of the money on the Bengals -3.5, and 85%+ of the money on Bengals ML, I may be right in the public narrative behind this game. People hate betting (-200) ML, and I think the Giant’s history of being a sorry franchise allows bettors to feel safe taking the -3.5… and for that reason I’d like to reiterate it is very important in all aspects of life to be comfortable being uncomfortable. Give me winning side of this game. Give me Giants to at least cover, and possibly upset the Bengals

-148 odds with 1.73% ev giving us value and projection leans to the over with good history and matchup

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Higgins has 30 targets in his three healthy games, good for a team-leading 25.9% target share. Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase (22.2%) have dominated usage in this stretch, with Zack Moss (13%) being the only other Bengal above a 10% target share. Higgins and Chase have accounted for 61.4% of Cincinnati's 1st-read targets in Weeks 3-5, with Higgins leading the way at 34.3%. The Bengals are slinging it this season, ranking 6th in pass rate and 7th in neutral pass rate heading into Week 6. It helps that their defense has been dreadful. Carolina is the only team allowing more points per game than Cincinnati. Love the role in a game that has sneaky shootout potential.

already bet this but with Nabers out this line should move to at least -4 so get your Cincy bet in now if you haven't yet

Simon Says

Model makes this +2.98. Simon Says per @SimonHunterNFL

Bet365

Proline

Lookahead line was 46 for this one, and I'm closer to that number. Think it's an overreaction after both offenses (and special teams) put up points last week.

@SimonHunterNFL

Week 6 Hot Read 🔥