Bengals vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 22, 2023

Small for snowver. Feed me 24-24

Think we can get this tied at 24 at min. Hopefully bills get a brain at half

Live alert

CZR. Half middle shot

https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016056&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Just logging the snowver

Dk boost

BetMGM. Under in 7/14, but this is a brutal matchup. Bills are #1 vs TEs in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and allowed the least yards per reception to the position. Technically, Hurst did clear this line in the 1Q vs BUF in the cancelled game, but I’m back on this today. Cinci is depleted on the O-Line and Hurst could be relied on to help block/chip before he runs his routes.

CZR

Boyd

Obsessed with this pick.

Popped up back at PB. @The_Oddsmaker

Bet at FanDuel. Would still play at +190.

Taking advantage of the line move to buy out of my early Hot Read position at a small profit. I just feel uneasy about this game and don’t love getting such a high variance team over a FG in a game that feels like it'll come down to the final drive with the two elite qbs. Feels like the best value right now is on Bengals 6 and especially 200+ ML, and I don't want to try to middle so I'll just walk with a small 4% profit.

MGM

Circa: Joe Burrow on the road. Joe Burrow as an underdog. Joe Burrow.

Caesers. Close/big game Josh Allen rushing narrative. 9/13 on this line in games decided by 2 scores or less. Missed last week, but did turn the ball over 3 times in opposing territory. We should see more designed runs in the red zone.

Small play h/t @The_Oddsmaker

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

Boyd

Wynn: Bengals' O-Line are w/o starters L. Collins, A. Cappa, & J. Williams. Should create pressured drawbacks where short high-% targets are needed to move the chains. Mixon, Hurst, Chase, Boyd, & Higgins are his options. #PlayerProps

FD: see my props piece for full analysis Quickslip link: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359705955&selectionId[0]=15499370&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Luke / VegasRefund Best Bet

Raybon 1

Foxhole

At DK: Project fair around +120

Taking off half cuz I wanna reduce my exposure on Cinci

@ChrisRaybon

Bet at FanDuel. WR is the angle you want to play for Bengals TD scorers. Boyd scored in W17 matchup that was cut short. Chase/Higgins command so much attention. May bet Higgins too if its above +200 but Boyd is my fave Bengal.

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

DK: giving out on Green Dot Daily right now

Bet365 11:11 am EST Thursday.

Bet at PointsBet. Over +200 = Autobet. During regular season and playoffs, he’s been above +200 in 9 games and scored in 6 of them. Has scored 5 TD in 7 career playoff games and 4/5 home playoff games. Cinci isnt a great matchup for TE but Knox is my Ryde or Die.

Out-carried 9-7 and 12-10 by Cook last 2 weeks. CIN allowing 3.7 YPC with Reader, 4.2 without.

one more escalator nibble. 70+ 5x this year, 66+ in 4/7 playoff games and 75+ x2. PB

Both pass defenses top 9 coverage per PFF, 9th/12th defensive pass DVOA. Cincy OL to deal with a Bulls front that is 6th highest in pressure. Buffalo allows just 1.4 RZ attempts per game

@SimonHunterNFL foxhole pick from the faves pod. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016054&selectionId[0]=50203&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Scaling this with my spread bet on the Bengals to get a bit more upside. My model puts the Bengals' win odds above 40%, and they're at 34.0% implied here. They get downgraded with the o-line banged up, but they played well even while Ja'Marr Chase was out earlier in the year. With a full week to prepare for their deficiencies, I have faith in the Bengals to figure it out, allowing me to take the discount on the moneyline.

Circa

Divisional Round Hot Read! Line doesn't make any sense. Buffalo has real home field advantage especially in this of all games, crowd will be bonkers. So that means Buffalo is like 1 better on a neutral field? with the clearly better D, ST, coach? Bengals likely missing both tackles and RG on line pending Jonah/Cappa health. Also bit of worry on Eli Apple who was in and out a bit, with Awuzie already out. Also Hyde could be back. Any of that injury stuff could move the line significantly, all away from 0. Maybe this is just gonna end up a field goal game but I liked Buffalo +1 in Cincy and the health gap has widened since so gotta like this. Maybe this drops to 3 but I don’t see it. Much more risk of it rising.