Bengals vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 22, 2023

Bengals at Bills

8:00 pm • CBS

Cincinnati Bengals

9-8

27 - 10

Buffalo Bills

2-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bengals 9-8	+5.5-105	o48.5-110	+200
Bills 2-1	-5.5-115	u48.5-110	-255

Sunday 8:00 p.m.

January 22, 2023

Highmark StadiumOrchard Park

BUF -5.5-115

$150.00

Over 48.5-110

1.1u

Over 50.5 (Live)-110

0.2u

Think we can get this tied at 24 at min. Hopefully bills get a brain at half

BUF -5 (2H)-105

1.05u

BUF +3.5 (Live)-115

1.15u

BUF +3.5 (Live)-110

0.1u

Live alert

BUF +3.5 (Live)-110

0.28u

CZR. Half middle shot

CIN +105 (Live)

1.05u

Under 53.5 (Live)-115

0.25u

https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016056&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

BUF o27.5-115

1.73u

Over 48.5 (Live)-110

0.1u

Just logging the snowver

J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+175

0.35u

Dk boost

Under 48.5-110

0.6u

H.Hurst u15.5 Longest Reception-120

1.2u

BetMGM. Under in 7/14, but this is a brutal matchup. Bills are #1 vs TEs in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and allowed the least yards per reception to the position. Technically, Hurst did clear this line in the 1Q vs BUF in the cancelled game, but I’m back on this today. Cinci is depleted on the O-Line and Hurst could be relied on to help block/chip before he runs his routes.

CIN +6-110

0.5u

CZR

S.Perine o1.5 Recs-172

0.47u

Boyd

Over 48.5-110

1.5u

Obsessed with this pick.

BUF -5.5-105

3.15u

J.Allen First Touchdown Scorer+950

0.4u

T.Boyd First Touchdown Scorer+2000

0.15u

T.Higgins First Touchdown Scorer+1500

0.2u

T.Higgins 2+ TDs+1900

0.4u

T.Boyd 2+ TDs+3000

0.2u

J.Burrow o36.5 Longest Completion-120

1.8u

#69WithDale

Under 48.5-110

$50.00

BUF -5.5-110

$55.00

T.Higgins Anytime TD Scorer+185

0.25u

J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer+155

0.39u

T.Higgins Anytime TD Scorer+200

Bet at FanDuel. Would still play at +190.

S.Diggs o79.5 Rec Yds-125

0.2u

CIN +3.5+130

1.61u

Taking advantage of the line move to buy out of my early Hot Read position at a small profit. I just feel uneasy about this game and don’t love getting such a high variance team over a FG in a game that feels like it'll come down to the final drive with the two elite qbs. Feels like the best value right now is on Bengals 6 and especially 200+ ML, and I don't want to try to middle so I'll just walk with a small 4% profit.

J.Allen o7.5 Rush Att-114

1.75u

BUF -260

2.6u

BUF -5.5-115

1.15u

CIN +7-145

0.69u

MGM

BUF -6-112

1.12u

BUF -260

2.6u

CIN +6-110

Circa: Joe Burrow on the road. Joe Burrow as an underdog. Joe Burrow.

BUF -5.5-112

J.Allen o7.5 Rush Att-139

Caesers. Close/big game Josh Allen rushing narrative. 9/13 on this line in games decided by 2 scores or less. Missed last week, but did turn the ball over 3 times in opposing territory. We should see more designed runs in the red zone.

S.Perine o12.5 Rec Yds-113

0.18u

Small play h/t @The_Oddsmaker

S.Diggs o6.5 Recs+110

J.Allen o47.5 Rush Yds-114

1.14u

BUF -6-112

Under 49-107

0.93u

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+225

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

S.Perine o12.5 Rec Yds-119

0.84u

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

D.Singletary u39.5 Rush Yds-115

0.87u

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

BUF -5.5-112

#simonhunter @SimonHunterNFL

J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+125

0.31u

Boyd

J.Chase o7.5 Recs+110

MGM

J.Chase o80 Rec Yds-130

0.6u

Boyd

J.Burrow o25.5 Pass Comp-125

1.25u

Wynn: Bengals' O-Line are w/o starters L. Collins, A. Cappa, & J. Williams. Should create pressured drawbacks where short high-% targets are needed to move the chains. Mixon, Hurst, Chase, Boyd, & Higgins are his options. #PlayerProps

J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+130

$162.50

J.Burrow o1.5 Pass TDs-120

J.Allen o42.5 Rush Yds-115

1.15u

S.Perine o10.5 Rec Yds-120

FD: see my props piece for full analysis Quickslip link: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359705955&selectionId[0]=15499370&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

BUF -5-112

1.12u

Luke / VegasRefund Best Bet

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+210

Gallant best bet

J.Allen o42.5 Rush Yds-115

1.15u

Anderson Best Bet

D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-110

Raybon 1

BUF -5.5-112

1.12u

Stuckey 1

BUF -4.5-112

1.12u

Foxhole

J.Chase Anytime TD Scorer+130

1.3u

At DK: Project fair around +120

D.Singletary u40.5 Rush Yds-110

0.91u

@ChrisRaybon

BUF -5.5-110

@Stuckey2

T.Boyd Anytime TD Scorer+320

Bet at FanDuel. WR is the angle you want to play for Bengals TD scorers. Boyd scored in W17 matchup that was cut short. Chase/Higgins command so much attention. May bet Higgins too if its above +200 but Boyd is my fave Bengal.

D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-120

0.83u

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

D.Singletary u43.5 Rush Yds-125

DK: giving out on Green Dot Daily right now

J.Allen o46.5 Rush Yds-110

0.75u

Bet365 11:11 am EST Thursday.

D.Singletary u44.5 Rush Yds-115

raybon

D.Knox Anytime TD Scorer+225

Bet at PointsBet. Over +200 = Autobet. During regular season and playoffs, he’s been above +200 in 9 games and scored in 6 of them. Has scored 5 TD in 7 career playoff games and 4/5 home playoff games. Cinci isnt a great matchup for TE but Knox is my Ryde or Die.

D.Singletary u45.5 Rush Yds-115

0.87u

Out-carried 9-7 and 12-10 by Cook last 2 weeks. CIN allowing 3.7 YPC with Reader, 4.2 without.

CIN +6-120

0.38u

J.Allen o59.5 Rush Yds+280

0.15u

J.Allen o42.5 Rush Yds-110

Via @wheatonbrando

J.Allen o74.5 Rush Yds+600

0.35u

one more escalator nibble. 70+ 5x this year, 66+ in 4/7 playoff games and 75+ x2. PB

J.Allen o59.5 Rush Yds+280

0.75u

Allen escalator SZN. 60+ in 8/18 games vs playoff teams last 2 years, almost half. 54+ in 5/7 career playoff games, avg 56. The actual line should be closer to 55, so 60+ should be more like +125 or 150, half this.

J.Allen o40.5 Rush Yds-110

2.5u

Terrible line, they're gonna regret this. Old faithful in big Bills games. They save Allen's legs for the big ones, both scrambles and designed runs. Numbers speak for themselves: 18g last 2yrs vs non-playoff teams: 5.7 rushes for 37yds 18g last 2yrs vs playoff: 9.4 for 60, 44+ in 13 (72%) Bengals bottom 5 vs designed QB runs too. You already know- it's escalator SZN. Don’t wait around, this line will definitely rise to 45-50 by kickoff. 54+ in 5/7 playoff games. Just a bad line. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-every-divisional-round-game?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

BUF -240

Under 49-110

Both pass defenses top 9 coverage per PFF, 9th/12th defensive pass DVOA. Cincy OL to deal with a Bulls front that is 6th highest in pressure. Buffalo allows just 1.4 RZ attempts per game

BUF -4.5-114

@SimonHunterNFL foxhole pick from the faves pod. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.359016054&selectionId[0]=50203&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

CIN +196

0.49u

Scaling this with my spread bet on the Bengals to get a bit more upside. My model puts the Bengals' win odds above 40%, and they're at 34.0% implied here. They get downgraded with the o-line banged up, but they played well even while Ja'Marr Chase was out earlier in the year. With a full week to prepare for their deficiencies, I have faith in the Bengals to figure it out, allowing me to take the discount on the moneyline.

CIN +5-110

0.68u

Splitting this a bit to get action on both the moneyline and the spread. This is after accounting for offensive line injuries in Cincinnati. I can't push this spread longer than a field goal, given how well the offense has played even while dealing with injuries to guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It's also easy to forget that the Bills sputtered a bit on offense against the Dolphins and play a high-variance brand of football. I just think this game is closer than the market is saying, which leads to three different bets in the same game.

Under 50.5-110

0.91u

Couple things play into this. First, I'm expecting a tighter game, which correlates with an under. Second, there are currently projected to be 14 mile-per-hour winds on Sunday with a 40% chance of snow. I don't care as much about the snow as I do the wind, which pushes things down, even though the Bills have played well through wind plenty of times this year. With the possibility for the total to slide down as the forecast becomes more clear, I'm looking to lock this one in now.

BUF -5-110

1.1u

Over 50-110

0.5u

Circa

CIN +4-110

BUF -3.5-110

1.5u

Divisional Round Hot Read! Line doesn't make any sense. Buffalo has real home field advantage especially in this of all games, crowd will be bonkers. So that means Buffalo is like 1 better on a neutral field? with the clearly better D, ST, coach? Bengals likely missing both tackles and RG on line pending Jonah/Cappa health. Also bit of worry on Eli Apple who was in and out a bit, with Awuzie already out. Also Hyde could be back. Any of that injury stuff could move the line significantly, all away from 0. Maybe this is just gonna end up a field goal game but I liked Buffalo +1 in Cincy and the health gap has widened since so gotta like this. Maybe this drops to 3 but I don’t see it. Much more risk of it rising.

BUF -4-110

2.2u

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NFL Public Betting

Bills are 2-1 in their last 5 games.
Bills are 2-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bills are 0-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' last 3 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Bills' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	2-1	2-0	0-1	1-0	1-1
Bengals	10-7	3-5	7-2	8-5	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bills	2-1	1-1	1-0	0-1	2-0
Bengals	11-6	6-2	5-4	7-6	4-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	2-1	N/A	N/A	1-0	1-1
Bengals	9-8	N/A	N/A	9-4	0-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 15th	MIA	W 34-31	-14 L	O 44.5	BUF -950
Jan 8th	NE	W 35-23	-8.5 W	O 44	BUF -405
Dec 24th	@CHI	W 35-13	-8.5 W	O 40.5	BUF -400
Dec 18th	MIA	W 32-29	-7 L	O 44.5	BUF -350
Dec 11th	NYJ	W 20-12	-9.5 L	U 43.5	BUF -460

Drew Sample
TE
Sample is questionable with groin
Questionable

Lucas Patrick
G
Patrick is out with knee
Out
Tee Higgins
WR
Higgins is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Geno Stone
S
Stone is questionable with illness
Questionable
Joseph Ossai
DE
Ossai is questionable with illness
Questionable
T.J. Slaton
DE
Slaton is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Cam Taylor-Britt
CB
Taylor-Britt is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Chase Brown
RB
Brown is out with ankle
Out
Charlie Jones
WR
Jones is questionable with groin
Questionable
Amarius Mims
OL
Mims is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jermaine Burton
WR
Burton is out with rest
Out

Tre'Davious White
CB
White is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Taylor Rapp
S
Rapp is out with back
Out
Darrynton Evans
RB
Evans is out with hamstring
Out
Joshua Palmer
WR
Palmer is out with heel
Out
Christian Benford
CB
Benford is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Baylon Spector
LB
Spector is out with calf
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Bengals

Total

Bills

412

Total Yards

325

Total Plays

5.8

Yards Per Play

5.2

Bengals

Passing

Bills

242

YDS

265

23/36

Comps/Atts

25/42

6.486

YPA

6.093

2/0

TDs/INTs

0/1

1/2

Sacks/Yards

1/3

Bengals

Rushing

Bills

172

Rush Yards

Attempts

5.059

YPC

3.316

TDs

Bengals

Turnovers

Bills

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Bengals

Efficiency

Bills

2/4 50%

Redzone

1/3 33.33%

6/10 0%

3rd Down

4/12 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

2/3 0%

Bengals

First Downs

Bills

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Bengals

Misc

Bills

2/9

Penalties/Yards

8/60

33:54

Possession

26:06

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MatchupOverUnder
Bengals 9-8	o20.5-125	u20.5-105
Bills 2-1	o28-102	u28-122

Bengals vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 22, 2023

Bengals at Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills

Bengals at Bills Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

Bengals vs. Bills Previews & Analysis

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How to Live Bet Divisional Round Sunday

Bengals vs Bills Highlights: Top Plays & Their Betting Impact

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Bengals vs. Bills Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Bengals vs. Bills Public Betting Percentages

Bengals

Public

Bills

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Bengals vs. Bills Injury Updates

Bengals Injuries

Bills Injuries

Bengals vs. Bills Odds Comparison

Bengals at Bills Team Totals