Texans vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2024

Texans at Patriots

5:00 pm • CBS

Houston Texans

10-7

41 - 21

New England Patriots

4-13

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Texans 10-7	-5.5	-6.5-109	o39.5-109	-270
Patriots 4-13	u44	+6.5-111	u39.5-111	+230

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

October 13, 2024

Gillette StadiumFoxborough

NE +11.5 (Live)-110

1.1u

NE +6.5 (Live)-110

HOU -6.5-112

J.Polk o2.5 Recs+105

HOU -6.5-110

1.82u

🔨

NE +6.5-110

NE +6.5-105

J.Polk o39.5 Rec Yds+180

0.5u

A.Gibson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+145

0.5u

J.Polk o26.5 Rec Yds-120

1.2u

J.Mixon Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140

0.7u

#Tailing @TheBMatt

J.Mixon Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140

1.4u

Under 38.5-110

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Texans' defense has been strong, allowing minimal yardage and excelling in key situations. Henry To’oTo’o leads the unit with many tackles. New England’s defense is solid, keeping them in games despite major offensive struggles. The Patriots’ offense has been ineffective, leading to low scoring. Expect a defensive battle with limited points on both sides.

D.Schultz Anytime TD Scorer Yes+300

1.2u

D.Maye Anytime TD Scorer Yes+420

0.5u

J.Mixon Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140

1.4u

@TheBMatt

D.Maye o28.5 Rush Yds-112

NE +6.5-105

1.05u

NE +6.5-105

2.1u

A.Gibson u3.5 Recs-160

0.63u

@nick_giffen

NE +6.5-105

@ChrisRaybon

D.Maye o164.5 Pass Yds-117

0.85u

@ChrisRaybon

NE +7.5-130

0.8u

Resorts World

A.Gibson u3.5 Recs-160

NE +6.5-105

J.Hasty u17.5 Rush Yds-117

0.85u

D.Maye o5.5 Rush Att+120

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-today-for-drake-maye-jayden-daniels

NE +6.5-105

0.5u

NE +7-116

1.16u

NE +7-105

1.05u

A.Gibson o17.5 Rec Yds-115

0.87u

D.Maye o5.5 Rush Att+110

H.Henry u14.5 Longest Reception-118

1.18u

Henry under this line in 3/5 - but the over last week came on a last second play when the dolphins were in prevent defense to protect against a Hail Mary. ADOT of 9.5 yards. Maye in at QB - better arm, but the issue of pressure will still exist (Brissett was 2nd most pressured and sacked QB). Texans have been stingy vs TEs - Kincaid with a long catch last week, but before that, no TE had a 13+ yard grab vs HOU.

D.Maye o161.5 Pass Yds-120

0.83u

@ChrisRaybon BET365

NE +7-106

@ChrisRaybon

NE +7-115

NE +7-120

1.1u

BIG BALLS BET OF THE WEEK presented by Tommy John

NE +7-115

1.15u

Raybon 1

NE +7-115

1.15u

Under 38-110

1.1u

D.Maye o159.5 Pass Yds-113

0.88u

Since 2018, 52-of-74 (70%) rookie QBs in Start 1 passed for 167+; median 199.5. Top-10 picks in Start 1 passed for 180+ in 14-of-17 (82%) since 2018; median 223. Proj 184

NE +7-115

1.15u

NE +7-115

1.15u

Model makes this -6.67 hold your breath. Big Balls bet of the week per @TheFavoritesPodcast

NE +7-110

Draaaaaaaake??!?!

D.Schultz o29.5 Rec Yds-115

1.15u

Only over in 2/5, but the hits were in each of the last 2. Now no Nico - last season he had 58 and 61 receiving yards in the two games without Collins. Yes, Diggs is here now, but the Pats have been fairly stingy vs slot receivers, and when Diggs does lineup outside, he’ll see a lot of Christian Gonzalez. And tank Dell hasn’t looked 100% quite yet. Schultz has produced in this offense - last season he was over in 12/17, with 6 games with at least 55+ yards. This feels like a spot where he could be featured a bit more. The Pats have allowed some big games to TEs - 53 YPG (8th most), with consecutive big games allowed to Jonnu Smith, Kittle and Conklin. And while Gamescript could/should skew positive for the Texans, I do expect them to dominate time of possession - their defense should handle Drake Maye in his first start. Pats TE defense has fallen off since they lost Bentley, and now will be without Peppers and possibly Dugger again.

NE +7-110

0.5u

NE +7-112

0.5u

NE +7-115

1.15u

Featured Insight
The Texans have allowed an average of 293.6 yards from scrimmage per game (1,468/5) this season -- 4th-best in NFL; the Patriots have averaged 275 yards from scrimmage per game (1,375 YFS / 5 G) this season -- 2nd-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Patriots have allowed 4.3 yards per carry on first down to RBs this season -- T-9th-best in NFL; the Texans are averaging 3.7 yards per carry on first down this season -- T-6th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Patriots are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Patriots are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Patriots are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Patriots' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Patriots' 8 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	7-9-1	3-4-1	4-4	N/A	7-9-1
Texans	7-10	3-5	4-5	4-7	3-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Patriots	11-6	7-1	3-5	N/A	11-6
Texans	6-11	1-7	5-4	4-7	2-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	4-13	N/A	N/A	N/A	4-13
Texans	10-7	N/A	N/A	9-2	1-5

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 6th	MIA	L 10-15	+2 L	U 36.5	MIA +110
Sep 29th	@SF	L 13-30	+10.5 L	O 42.5	SF +425
Sep 20th	@NYJ	L 3-24	+6.5 L	U 39.5	NYJ +240
Sep 15th	SEA	L 20-23	+3 L	O 39.5	SEA +135
Sep 8th	@CIN	W 16-10	+8 W	U 40.5	NE +297

Hunter Henry
TE
Henry is out with foot
Out
Jabrill Peppers
S
Peppers is out with hamstring
Out

Sione Takitaki
LB
Takitaki is questionable with groin
Questionable
Kyle Dugger
S
Dugger is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Anfernee Jennings
LB
Jennings is questionable with knee
Questionable
Cole Strange
G
Strange is questionable with knee
Questionable
Marcus Jones
CB
Jones is out with hip
Out
Ben Brown
C
Brown is out with concussion
Out
Christian Gonzalez
CB
Gonzalez is out with concussion
Out
Alex Austin
CB
Austin is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Titus Leo
LB
Leo is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jaquelin Roy
DT
Roy is out with foot
Out
Ja'Lynn Polk
WR
Polk is out with shoulder
Out

Jerry Hughes
DE
Hughes is questionable with hip
Questionable
Tank Dell
WR
Dell is out with knee
Out
Jamal Hill
LB
Hill is questionable with knee
Questionable

See more NFL Injuries

Texans

Total

Patriots

368

Total Yards

291

Total Plays

5.9

Yards Per Play

4.6

Texans

Passing

Patriots

192

YDS

243

20/32

Comps/Atts

20/33

5.176

YPA

5.649

3/1

TDs/INTs

3/2

2/16

Sacks/Yards

4/34

Texans

Rushing

Patriots

192

Rush Yards

Attempts

6.857

YPC

3.154

TDs

Texans

Turnovers

Patriots

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Texans

Efficiency

Patriots

3/3 100%

Redzone

1/1 100%

4/11 0%

3rd Down

3/13 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

2/2 0%

Texans

First Downs

Patriots

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Texans

Misc

Patriots

4/38

Penalties/Yards

9/50

30:47

Possession

29:13

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MatchupOverUnder
Texans 10-7	o23.5+102	u23.5-122
Patriots 4-13	o15.5-110	u15.5-110

Texans vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2024

Texans at Patriots

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Texans vs. Patriots Public Betting Percentages

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Patriots

Bets%

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Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

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