Patriots vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

- Keeping this one simple. Big favorites have had the worst 3 weeks in the past 20 years against the spread. - I love for the biggest favorite of the week to cover with ease this week

Potential to be eased in/decoy returning from calf early as big home fav for SF team also getting Kittle back. Was under 4.5 in 5 straight after his first injury in '23. Under 4.5 in 11 of last 17 dating back to Week 4 '23.

Under in 2/3, with the one hit being in a monster game against SEA (who are a brutal spot for WRs). This is the opposite of that matchup, with SF being a tough spot for TEs with Warner, Greenlaw, Brown and Hafuanga up the middle. Henry with only two of his 17 targets traveling at least 15 air yards. Only one reception for more than 15 yards - and that was a catch and run, something I don’t see happening against the speed of this defense. Overall stats: Henry’s aDOT is 9.0 yards, and SF is 5th in FTN’s DVOA vs TEs (only 6 TE catches allowed in 3 games, long of 9, 12.5% target rate).

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Buying low with a banged up SF team

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Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Despite a promising start with a win against the Bengals, the Patriots' offense has since fallen flat, scoring only 13 points per game, ranking 31st in the league. The offensive line's issues have left Jacoby Brissett under heavy pressure, impacting the team's ability to move the ball effectively. In their most recent matchup against the Jets, New England managed just three points, with Brissett throwing for only 98 yards. Their running game wasn’t any better, with Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson combining for a mere 52 rushing yards. With such poor offensive production, it’s hard to see the Patriots suddenly breaking out against a 49ers defense, even one that’s been somewhat inconsistent to start the year. San Francisco is also dealing with the absence of key offensive weapon Christian McCaffrey, which should limit their own scoring upside. Although their defense hasn't been at its best so far, they showed last season that they are capable of turning it around, and facing a Patriots offense that has been unable to find any rhythm presents the perfect opportunity to get back on track. New England’s defense, meanwhile, has been solid, ranked 10th in the league and giving up only 19 points per game. With the Patriots' defensive unit capable of keeping them in games, this sets up a lower-scoring affair, especially given how poorly their offense has performed. The combination of the Patriots’ anemic offense, the 49ers’ injury concerns, and both teams’ potential to control the pace of the game through defense makes the Under an attractive pick. Expect the scoring to remain low, with neither team lighting up the scoreboard in this matchup.

My model is always on the over in 49ers games, and this is no different. They still clicked Sunday without CMC/Deebo/Kittle, and Javon Hargrave won't play, which could help the Patriots' offense.