Ravens vs. Browns Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025

2.97% ev play to -106

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2.4% ev play to +110

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting him closer to 31.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 36.5

Dillon Gabriel under 2.5 Rush Att (+130 Bet365, +120 BetMGM) 0.5u Dillon Gabriel under 12.5 rush yds (-110 DK/Bet365) 0.55u to win 0.5u Gabriel has just 12 rushing attempts on the year which break down into the following 10 scrambles 1 kneel down 1 designed run As a touchdown underdog, the kneel down angle is less in play than it was in the Browns win over Miami, so the main angle to focus on here is scrambles. It seems pretty unlikely we get more than 2 scrambles out of the rookie QB given he's averaged 2 per game despite facing four of five rushing defenses that allow above average scramble rates when adjusted for the QBs they've faced. That includes a five-scramble game against the Jets, who allow the third-most QB-adjusted scrambles per dropback. Baltimore ranks 20th in QB-adjusted scramble rate allowed, thanks in large part to their lack of pressure where they rank 28th in pressure rate over expected. In a heavy wind game, we could see a Gabriel designed run, but that also means a lower dropback rate as teams are more run heavy in strong wind games. I'm projecting him for one scramble, so we have some wiggle room for either his second designed run or his second QB kneel of the season to still stay under this line. Given scrambles are the biggest QB rushing yard gainers and he projects for just one scramble and considering the Ravens allow just 7.4 yards per QB scramble, I can't get to over 12.5 yards on Gabriel. I'll split my unit on his under on attempts and his under on yards.

This game looks pretty ugly. On a weekend full of blustery weather, this one could get the worst of it — low 40s and winds in the 20s, with a low total and an ugly game expected. These longtime rivals have split the season series six of the last seven years, so don't be surprised if Cleveland's stout defense helps the Browns hang around more than you think. If you disagree, Ravens team total over 23.5 is a gift — the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in every Lamar Jackson win the last two seasons. That weather may mean a lack of passing, but I'm still looking at a Browns pass catcher, presumed WR1 Jerry Jeudy. Cleveland turned over its offense to OC Tommy Rees during its bye week, and he made his intentions for the offense pretty clear in his first game calling plays against the Jets last week. The Browns threw 25 passes in the first half; 11 of them were directed toward Jeudy. That's a huge target load, 44% of the passes, and he had his best half of the season with five catches for 66 yards and a score. Rees made it clear he wants to get the ball to the one star talent in his receiving corps, so I'm following the hunch and investing before lines adjust. The Ravens have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season and the second most receptions per game at 13.8. Even as the defense has improved, opponents are passing on them. Jeudy hasn't had a great season, but even in an off year, he's still had at least 43 yards receiving in over half his games, five of nine. That makes his over 39.5 yards a no brainer at DraftKings (-110). He's only hit 60 yards twice this season but has still done so in 10 of his last 19 outings, again over half, so 60+ yards at +243 is worth part of the bet, too. The weather and game conditions could make a huge yardage total tough to come by, especially since Dillon Gabriel can't get the ball down the field, so perhaps just reception volume is in play. Jeudy has at least six receptions in eight of his last 18 games, almost half, but the target share is key. When he gets double-digit targets like he did last week in the first half alone, he's had at least six catches in seven of his last eight games. If the targets are there, the volume should be too. Bet 6+ Jeudy receptions at +350 (bet365) and let's hope Rees continues to build the offense around his best playmaker.

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There is a value opportunity on Dillon Gabriel's TD passes prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.01 TD passes, while sportsbooks imply 1.24. The model believes there is a 53% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes, so there is some value on the under at +160. (This play is good down to at least +118.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

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