The Baltimore Ravens (4-5) and Cleveland Browns (2-7) will meet in Week 11 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Ravens are 7.5-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (Ravens -7.5; -105), with the over/under set at 38.5 (-108o / -112u). Baltimore is a -470 moneyline favorite; Cleveland is a +340 underdog.
Let's get into my Ravens vs Browns prediction.
Ravens vs Browns Predictions, Spread Pick
- Ravens vs Browns pick: Browns +7.5 (-115)
My Browns vs. Ravens best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Ravens vs Browns Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 38.5 -108o / -112u | -470 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 38.5 -108o / -112u | +340 |
Ravens vs Browns Preview, Prediction
This is my favorite time to bet the Browns. I've done it all three times this year.
In the past three years, Cleveland's defense at home has arguably been the best unit in the NFL. Look up the Browns' EPA per play, success-rate differential — it's insane. They shut down pretty much every offense they face.
This is the Browns' first home game in over a month. Somehow, they have played only three home games all year.
At Huntington Bank Field this year, the Browns held Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 17 points and should have won. They beat Jordan Love and the Packers, limiting them to 10 points. And they also defeated the Dolphins, holding them to three points.
Unfortunately for Cleveland though, six of its other nine games have been away from home.
Over the past three years, the Browns have covered the spread at a 62% clip at home. On the road, they're 5-17 (22.7%), which is worse than the Titans, who never cover.
Cleveland is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog of a touchdown-plus over the past three years, winning all three outright. They beat the Packers, Ravens and 49ers, all as touchdown-plus 'dogs.
Additionally, there will be bad weather in this game with high winds and gusts.
That helps Cleveland exponentially. With Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, the Browns don't have a downfield passing attack or explosive passing in general, and those conditions will hurt the Ravens much more.
Plus, the Ravens can't run against Cleveland.
Let’s look back earlier this year: Derrick Henry could barely get a yard. And this is arguably the first- or second-best run defense in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Ravens' run defense is still vulnerable without defensive end Nnamdi Madubuike, and they also have injuries at linebacker. Last week, the Vikings averaged 6.7 yards per carry against them.
The Ravens still can't cover tight ends and struggle to defend short passes. That's the entire Cleveland offense. If the Browns can run it a bit, they can eat the clock. If they can't, they're screwed.
Additionally, Baltimore is 27th in success rate against the run and 26th in rush EPA this season; it is still very problematic.
Another key factor is the fact that the Ravens aren't fully healthy.
They were for a week, and it was fun. They had no one on the injury report last week, but now WR Rashod Bateman and CB Marlon Humphrey are out.
I was also expecting more from Lamar Jackson after extended rest, especially in terms of his mobility. The Ravens quarterback is just not there yet when it comes to his explosiveness. That's big against this Browns pass rush.
Throw in the weather conditions, and it will be tough for this Ravens team to move the ball consistently. Jackson didn't look 100% healthy and took a lot of bad hits last week. Now, he will be in the cold, with wind and rain.
This will be the third straight game for Baltimore on the road.
According to Evan Abrams, Jackson is 35-17 straight up (SU) on the road as a starter, but when he starts the second game or later of a road trip, he is just 5-6 SU, including losing three times outright as a favorite.
I assume Baltimore will probably want to be a little cautious with him.
Ravens vs Browns Spread Prediction
The line is too high. You'll get Cleveland's best effort here, and the Browns are pretty much 100% healthy. Defensive end Alex Wright is the only one who didn't practice this week.
Give me this Cleveland defense at home catching over a touchdown. I bet them all three home games this year, and I will probably bet on them at home a couple more times.
This will be their fourth game there, and they really should be 3-0 with wins over the Dolphins, Bengals and Packers in those games.
This is just a different team on their home turf, I can't explain it. I don't know why the Browns defense falls off so much on the road, but the weather conditions at home should only help them in this spot.
Ravens vs Browns Best Bet:
- Browns +7.5 (-115)
Ravens vs Browns Betting Trends
Ravens vs Browns Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 16 |
| Time: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
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