Packers vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - January 11, 2026

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Boyd / FanDuel

Does this Bears team really scare anyone? They’ve survived the entire year playing very unsustainable football. Sure, Ben Johnson has sparked an impressive turnaround, but this team is not nearly as good as their record suggests. The Bears ended the regular season ranked fourth in our NFL luck rankings and have won seven of their eleven games by one score or less. A perfect example of their fortunate season came the last time these teams met. The Packers lost in overtime in a game they had no business losing. They controlled that entire game and somehow let it slip away to Chicago. Either way, I still have the Packers power rated higher than the Bears and simply believe their veteran players will be the difference. Let’s break this game down. The Bears defense remains a major concern. They rank just 21st in EPA per play and 26th in success rate. The Bears secondary is extremely weak, sitting 21st in coverage grade and 24th in passing DVOA. This secondary is very bad and has a nightmare matchup against Jordan Love and the Packers. Green Bay ranks second in passing grade on PFF, second in EPA per pass, and fourth in pass DVOA. The Bears defense isn’t much better against the run either, ranking 24th in EPA per rush. This will also be the third time Matt LaFleur and this Packers offense have seen the Bears defense, and I expect them to come out firing. The Packers defense isn’t elite, but it is very solid. Their numbers are skewed after losing their final four games, but those losses came while dealing with major injuries and resting starters. I wouldn’t read too much into their cold finish to the season as they were strictly preparing for this exact game. The Packers essentially had a bye week last week, resting almost every starter. Meanwhile, the Bears were in a dogfight with the Lions and ended up losing at the buzzer. Green Bay holds a significant rest advantage and should be as healthy as they’ve been in weeks. Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against quarterbacks with playoff experience are just 20-40 straight up. Our model has the Packers winning 26.02 to 23.01, implying a fair spread of 2.99. Give me the Packers to win in Chicago.

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The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Brandon McManus under 7.5 Kicking Pts (-117 at DK) One of the big fasctors I've mentioned in Green Bay vs. Chicago in my Wild Card Weekend Luck Rankings piece was the fact that Green Bay has been quite unlucky scoring TDs in the red zone, while Chicago's defense has been a bit fortunate. If things regress back toward these offensive and defensive capabilities as they theoretically should, I'd expect Green Bay to punch in a few more TDs at the expense of field goals. And minimizing field goals is the best path to staying under a kicker's kicking points. Green Bay is now fully healthy at the WR position, and defensively the Bears are missing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, which is one of the key pieces of their second-half defensive improvement. It's also going to be cold, and with sustained winds above 15 m.p.h. and gusts touching 30 m.p.h. per NOAA, at a near perfect crosswind, which will limit field goals from distance as well. All told, if Green Bay is scoring TDs from in close, and passing up on longer field goals, or McManus struggles with them from the conditions, there's a strong path to staying under this kicking total.

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Jacobs is off the injury report & he said this is “the best he’s felt in 6 weeks”. He’s scored a TD in 16/L18 Games when playing 50%+ of the snaps & in 3/L4 games vs CHI. Jacobs said to the media that the biggest focus this week is getting points when they’re in the red zone. Last time these teams played, Jacobs fumbled on the goal line & it likely cost them the win. He said this about it, “That’s something that I definitely think about…its definitely been on my mind…Imma run hard and see how it plays out.” He also touched on wanting to play the Bears again & on Love’s concussion in their last matchup, saying “A lot of guys took that hit that he took personal…” CHI run defense is well below avg too. They’ve allowed the Highest Rush Success Rate & 2nd Lowest Stuff%. This game will be very windy and potentially snowing. GB’s OC mentioned that they may have to really lean on their run game depending on weather conditions. I expect him to find the end zone in a great spot.

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

When it comes to the Packers, you have to throw out their Week 18 game with them resting key players and starting Clayton Tune. But in Week 17, it was the first game we’ve seen with Josh Whyle since leaving Week 15 early due to injury. In that game, Whyle was the Packers’ TE on 71% of their 3WR sets, so Musgrave only saw 29% of those snaps, which are the more pass-heavy formations, while playing most of the 2TE sets, which are typically more run heavy. As a result, Musgrave only had a 41% routes run rate, which has been right around where he’s been since Tucker Kraft’s season-ending injury and when Whyle has been healthy and able to play a full game. So his playing time has been limited, and this is also a game where the Packers could try to lean on the run game a bit more with Josh Jacobs closer to 100%. There’s also enough snow and wind in the forecast that it could impact the passing game. Musgrave was a solid prospect and was actually taken a round ahead of Kraft in the same class, but he’s a different type of pass catcher and more of a downfield threat, and not very good after the catch, whereas Kraft is elite there. So either he’s going to see fewer downfield targets given the potential conditions, or if they end up scheming him more shorter throws and this things toast, but that’s not really his skill set. The Bears have also been pretty solid against TEs, ranking 10th in DVOA against the position, and that was without their best coverage LB T.J. Edwards, who missed a handful of games in the middle of the season. Musgrave clearly has the talent and role to clear this with 1–2 catches, so I’m going to shy away from his rec yds prop (showing value on the under 23.5, but some books are already down to 20.5) and since the main downside with him is playing time (on passing downs) I think this is the market to fade him. Projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 61% chance to stay under 2.5

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Luck Rankings D grade

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