Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 25, 2023

Eagles at Buccaneers

11:15 pm • ABC

Philadelphia Eagles

8-2

25 - 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Eagles 8-2	-6-110	o44-111	-250
Buccaneers 4-6	+6-110	u44-110	+205

Monday 11:15 p.m.

September 25, 2023

Raymond James StadiumTampa

M.Evans o4.5 Recs+125

1.25u

J.Evans o4.5 Tackles + Ast-145

C.Otton o25.5 Rec Yds+148

J.Hurts o274.5 Pass Yds+250

0.63u

Bombs are going to be dropped

J.Hurts o249.5 Pass Yds+150

0.75u

Almost didn’t get this in thanks fat gurls

TB +6-110

0.55u

M.Evans o55.5 Rec Yds-145

0.69u

TB +6-110

0.4u

A.Brown Anytime TD Scorer+150

0.25u

PHI -5.5-115

0.87u

J.Hurts o0.5 Int+170

0.85u

Under 44-110

0.91u

Under 44.5-115

This is an under, not over

D.Goedert Anytime TD Scorer+260

1.5u

C.Otton Anytime TD Scorer+380

0.8u

O.Zaccheaus Anytime TD Scorer+750

4.5u

R.Penny Anytime TD Scorer+1000

0.4u

C.Otton o25.5 Rec Yds-110

Over 44-110

1.1u

D.Goedert o3.5 Recs-136

0.74u

Under 44-105

J.Hurts o0.5 Int+165

1.65u

As given out on Green Dot Daily. Would play to +140

PHI o12.5 (1H)-125

0.8u

D.Smith o23.5 Longest Reception-114

1.14u

J.Hurts Anytime TD Scorer+115

1.15u

PHI -5.5-110

0.91u

K.Gainwell u7.5 Rush Att+105

More like Kenneth Gainnotwell

PHI -5-110

0.91u

FLY EAGLES FLY

PHI -5-110

PHI -4.5-115

1.5u

Bucs worst 2-0 team in NFL history

Under 44.5-111

PHI -5-111

TB u20.5-130

0.77u

Bucs and Baker come back down to Earth

C.Godwin o5.5 Recs+110

Exposing Philly’s weakness in the middle

D.Thompkins o12.5 Rec Yds-115

1.15u

A.Brown o25.5 Longest Reception-120

0.83u

This is the AJ Brown play today

D.Swift o33.5 Rush Yds-110

0.75u

This is a horrible number still up at 365. Rest of books at 38-41. Swift seems like RB1 based on practice and goes hand in hand w/ Gainwell prop. He’s explosive and think he’ll get lion’s share. All he needs is ~10 Carries. Our projection is closer to 60, so a huge edge

J.Hurts o235.5 Pass Yds-115

1.74u

Hurts air raid masterclass - bomb drops in Tampa

M.Evans u60.5 Rec Yds-125

C.Godwin o53.5 Rec Yds-125

Only a 3 yard difference to Evans’ receiving line?

J.Hurts o20.5 Pass Comp-120

0.83u

23 attempts last week, AJ Brown gets involved

A.Brown o69.5 Rec Yds-110

0.45u

Via @PropBetGuy

B.Mayfield o0.5 Int-120

0.83u

(-130) on offshore, Baker throws his first pick tonight

A.Brown o69.5 Rec Yds-110

Barney at the bar. @AnthonyDabbundo

A.Brown o69.5 Rec Yds-110

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-bet-aj-brown-eagles-vs-buccaneers-monday-night-football

PHI -4.5-118

0.85u

D.Goedert Anytime TD Scorer+230

Bet at FanDuel.

C.Godwin Anytime TD Scorer+225

Bet at DraftKings.

K.Gainwell u35.5 Rush Yds-110

0.55u

Smaller because not sure of what Philly will do w/ Swift & Gainwell, but projections are closer to 28-30. Every yard counts and Hurts’ mobility also should steal carries from him

Under 45-110

$50.00

Riding another primetime under.

Under 45-110

0.91u

D.Smith o61.5 Rec Yds-115

Under 45-110

0.91u

Koerner’s total

Under 45-110

0.5u

TB +5-107

TB +5-110

Under 45-110

R.White u49.5 Rush Yds-114

0.88u

Under 46-110

0.45u

Luck Rankings pick. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-betting-preview-week-3

C.Godwin o53.5 Rec Yds-110

Bet365 10:01 Saturday.

TB +5.5-110

1.1u

Simon Says

J.Hurts o0.5 Int+170

0.85u

Bet at Bet365 on 09/21. Bucs strong vs run and create lot of pressure. Hurts may need to throw more bc of strong Run Defense and bc WR AJ Brown is whining for more targets. These INT odds should be closer to +125.

TB +6-128

$125.00

A.Brown Anytime TD Scorer+145

$50.00

(0.5u) A.J. Brown anytime TD (+145) Best line on DK. A.J. Brown has not scored a TD this year, but I expect that changes Monday night. He was visibly upset about his lack of involvement last week vs. MIN, so look for QB Jalen Hurts to get his playmaker the ball early and often. 23.1% target share facing zone coverage (35% first-read share) on passing plays. Bucs much weaker vs. pass than run.

TB +5-110

0.55u

TB +5.5-110

Simon Says play from @TheFavoritesPodcast.

TB +5.5-110

Available at FanDuel. Tampa Bay has shredded on offense so far this year, and while this will easily be their toughest task yet, the Eagles' defense isn't at full health. They have a bunch of time to get there, but the Buccaneers enter with a relatively empty injury report. We've seen Baker Mayfield have stretches of competency in the past, and he likely has the best pass-catchers of his entire career right now. It's not entirely out of the question that the Bucs are a decent football team this year. Thus, I thinking taking the 5.5 with the home team is the right way to play this one.

Under 46-110

These two teams' game totals have summed up to 11 points *per game* MORE than expected over first 2 weeks based off on-field play. Expecting regression.

Featured Insight
Buccaneers QBs have a 103.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter since Week 15 of the 2022 Season -- sixth-best in NFL. The Eagles have allowed a passer rating of 117.2 in the 4th quarter since Week 15 of the 2022 Season -- third-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Eagles have thrown for 7.8 yards per attempt on plays to the left side of the field since the 2022 season -- third-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 7.3 yards per dropback when defending on plays to the left since the 2022 season -- ninth-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Buccaneers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Buccaneers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Buccaneers are 3-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Buccaneers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Buccaneers' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Buccaneers	6-4	3-3	3-1	2-1	4-3
Eagles	6-4	1-3	4-1	4-4	2-0

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Buccaneers	7-3	4-2	3-1	2-1	5-2
Eagles	4-6	1-3	2-3	3-5	1-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Buccaneers	4-6	N/A	N/A	2-1	2-5
Eagles	8-2	N/A	N/A	6-2	2-0

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 17th	CHI	W 27-17	-2.5 W	O 41	TB -130
Sep 10th	@MIN	W 20-17	+4 W	U 44.5	TB +166
Aug 26th	BAL	W 26-20	-1.5 W	O 35.5	TB -131
Aug 19th	@NYJ	W 13-6	+3 W	U 37	TB +125
Aug 11th	PIT	L 17-27	+2.5 L	O 39.5	PIT +135

Mike Evans
WR
Evans is out with hamstring
Out

Sterling Shepard
WR
Shepard is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Chris Godwin
WR
Godwin is out with foot
Out
Greg Gaines
DE
Gaines is questionable with calf
Questionable
Evan Deckers
LS
Deckers is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Tykee Smith
DB
Smith is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Kameron Johnson
WR
Johnson is out with ankle
Out

Byron Young
DT
Young is out with hamstring
Out
Ben VanSumeren
LB
VanSumeren is questionable with concussion
Questionable

See more NFL Injuries

Eagles

Total

Buccaneers

472

Total Yards

174

Total Plays

6.1

Yards Per Play

Eagles

Passing

Buccaneers

277

YDS

146

23/37

Comps/Atts

15/25

7.132

YPA

4.926

1/2

TDs/INTs

1/1

1/6

Sacks/Yards

2/13

Eagles

Rushing

Buccaneers

201

Rush Yards

Attempts

5.025

YPC

2.412

TDs

Eagles

Turnovers

Buccaneers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Eagles

Efficiency

Buccaneers

1/5 20%

Redzone

1/2 50%

10/16 0%

3rd Down

5/10 0%

2/3 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Eagles

First Downs

Buccaneers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Eagles

Misc

Buccaneers

3/20

Penalties/Yards

4/20

38:55

Possession

21:05

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MatchupOverUnder
Eagles 8-2	o24.5-115	u24.5-115
Buccaneers 4-6	o19-120	u19-108

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 25, 2023

Eagles at Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eagles at Buccaneers Odds

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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Previews & Analysis

McMurphy's Law: Looking Ahead to CFB Week 5

How We're Live Betting The MNF Doubleheader

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Buccaneers

Bets%

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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds Comparison

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