Bills vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2025
Bills at Falcons
11:15 pm • ESPNBills at Falcons Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bills 5-2 | -5.5 | -3.5-115 | o49.5-114 | -202 |
Falcons 3-4 | u48.5 | +3.5-105 | u49.5-110 | +169 |

Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlanta
Bills vs. Falcons Expert Picks
Player Prop Savant
Last 30d: 29-30-0 (-2.4u)
Under 58.5 (Live)-112
1u
The Degenerates
Last 30d: 54-56-0 (-6.3u)
B.Robinson o108.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1u
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 41-60-0 (+5.2u)
T.Shavers o1.5 Rec Yds-110
0.5u
Kyle Murray
Last 30d: 72-77-2 (-1.1u)
J.Allen o30.5 Pass Att+102
1u
C.Washington o2.5 Recs-108
1.08u
C.Washington Anytime TD Scorer Yes+390
0.75u
C.Washington First Touchdown Scorer Yes+2500
0.15u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 27-86-1 (-14.4u)
T.Shavers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1300
0.1u
I’ll sprinkle with @The_Oddsmaker
Ryan Sura
Last 30d: 89-101-1 (-8.7u)
J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer Yes+105
1u
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 48-34-0 (+7.4u)
T.Shavers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1300
0.05u
Sprinkle on him at this price after the Samuel/Kincaid news. Projecting closer to +900 but think he has a ton of unrealized upside in a high scoring offense. Could be out there on 30-40% of Allen’s dropbacks tonight
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 41-60-0 (+5.2u)
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+160
1.28u
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 139-106-3 (+7.8u)
Under 50-110
0.5u
YBK Picks.com
Last 30d: 64-38-3 (+47.2u)
ATL +3.5-105
1.9u
Over 50-105
3u
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 81-101-0 (-12.0u)
K.Shakir o4.5 Recs-115
1u
Last one
K.Shakir First Touchdown Scorer Yes+1400
0.25u
Sir yes sir
K.Shakir o47.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Air Shakir
K.Shakir Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200
0.5u
Vamonos muchacho
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 35-34-1 (-2.5u)
ATL +4.5-112
1u
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 45-87-0 (+4.9u)
BUF -2.5 (2H)-110
0.45u
MNF pick from Action Network podcast
BUF o27.5 Team Total+100
0.5u
MNF pick from Action Network podcast
Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 41-37-0 (-2.1u)
M.Penix o7.5 Rush Yds-117
1u
Invisible Insider
Last 30d: 11-8-0 (+1.3u)
BUF -3.5-115
0.5u
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 104-120-8 (+0.2u)
B.Robinson o108.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1u
DeadPresPicks
Last 30d: 9-18-0 (+2.1u)
J.Cook First Touchdown Scorer Yes+525
0.2u
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 104-120-8 (+0.2u)
Under 24.5 (1H)-113
1.13u
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 96-99-1 (+0.6u)
J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer Yes+100
3u
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 139-106-3 (+7.8u)
C.Bishop u5.5 Tackles + Ast-108
0.54u
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 48-34-0 (+7.4u)
C.Bishop u5.5 Tackles + Ast-108
0.54u
Same reasons as last week when this cashed with ease. He’s simply playing deep at a higher rate this year. He only has 7 run tackles on the season, so facing the Falcons offense isn’t a plus matchup. Safeties facing Atlanta have recorded tackles at one of the lowest rates in the league. Bishop could still get involved on the occasional Bijan explosive run, but having Ed Oliver and Dorian Williams back should help limit those chances.
He’s also mixed in on QB scrambles and even has 2 sacks this year, but Penix doesn’t scramble much and has become one of the toughest QBs to sack. Drake London should see a high target volume, but he typically gets wrapped up by CBs and LBs rather than safeties (CBs get a huge boost vs. Atl)
The one factor slightly boosting his projection this week is expected volume. I have the Bills facing a handful more plays than normal, which is why my projection is a tad higher this week. Even with that baked in, it isn’t enough to push me off the under.
Projecting him at 4.9 with around a 61% chance to stay under 5.5.
And yeah, some brutal luck yesterday.. lost 3 plays by the hook, including one where MHJ had to leave after a big catch. Sometimes there’s nothing you can do. Eventually those bounces go the other way. I’ve honestly never felt more confident in my process, so I’ll just keep firing and let the results catch up.
Grant Neiffer
Last 30d: 38-82-0 (+9.0u)
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+160
0.8u
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 96-99-1 (+0.6u)
ATL +3.5-110
1u
Jeremiah Rose
Last 30d: 26-26-0 (+0.1u)
J.Palmer o18.5 Rec Yds-112
0.18u
Boyd / FanDuel
Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 17-48-0 (-14.8u)
J.Allen o228.5 Pass Yds-112
1u
Falcons generate a lot of pass rush, but Bills have held up there so far this year. Falcons also face a higher average depth of throw than most teams, and the Bills get to play without wind for once. Should set up well for heavier passing volume than usual for Allen.
Collin Wilson
Last 30d: 84-65-1 (+15.9u)
ATL +4-113
1u
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 59-118-0 (-3.3u)
BUF -2.5 (2H)-120
0.83u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ADRU5buSqXb
BUF o27.5 Team Total-110
1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ADRU5buSqXb
Roger Goodell
Last 30d: 42-42-1 (+3.5u)
BUF -3.5-115
1u
Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 170-173-2 (+4.6u)
BUF -3.5-102
1u
NV
FTN Fantasy
Last 30d: 43-43-0 (+1.8u)
BUF -4-107
1u
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 62-81-2 (-11.7u)
ATL +4.5-115
1u
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 115-126-2 (+37.9u)
J.Cook o12.5 Rec Yds-114
1u
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Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 27-86-1 (-14.4u)
J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer Yes+100
1u
TD 🪜
J.Allen 2+ TDs Yes+650
0.25u
TD 🪜
Picks Office
Last 30d: 120-98-4 (+15.3u)
Over 48.5-110
1u
X: @PicksOffice
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 115-126-2 (+37.9u)
C.Washington u23.5 Rec Yds-110
0.91u
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Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 27-86-1 (-14.4u)
K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+320
0.75u
Chris Gimino
Last 30d: 27-43-1 (-17.0u)
J.Allen o29.5 Pass Att-113
1u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 20-73-2 (-7.7u)
J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer Yes-105
0.5u
@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb
K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+350
0.5u
@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb
D.Kincaid Anytime TD Scorer Yes+260
0.5u
@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb
Babs .
Last 30d: 94-110-3 (-11.7u)
D.London o5.5 Recs+100
1u
Derek Carty
Last 30d: 22-20-0 (+6.6u)
B.Robinson u16.5 Rush Att+106
1u
There is a value opportunity on Bijan Robinson's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 14.63 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 18.65. The model believes there is a 69% chance he records fewer than 16.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +106. (This play is good down to at least -152.)
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 62-81-2 (-11.7u)
ATL +4-110
1u
Buffalo has been living in prime time, getting every team’s best punch. This is a tough spot for the Bills with Atlanta off the bye.
Matt Moore
Last 30d: 40-46-0 (-2.5u)
ATL +4.5-110
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 194-187-1 (-14.8u)
BUF -3.5-120
1u
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 53-60-0 (-1.4u)
ATL +4.5-115
0.43u
DeadPresPicks
Last 30d: 9-18-0 (+2.1u)
BUF -3.5-110
0.55u
Bills vs. Falcons Previews & Analysis
Bills vs. Falcons Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Bills vs. Falcons Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Falcons are 1-2 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Falcons' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Falcons' 4 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Falcons vs. Bills Injury Updates

Falcons Injuries
- Jamal AgnewWR
Agnew is out with groin
Out
- Drake LondonWR
London is questionable with hip
Questionable
- DeMarcco HellamsS
Hellams is out with hamstring
Out
- Michael PenixQB
Penix is questionable with knee
Questionable
- Jack NelsonOL
Nelson is out with calf
Out

Bills Injuries
- Mitch WishnowskyP
Wishnowsky is out with back
Out
- Tyler BassK
Bass is out with hip
Out
- Joshua PalmerWR
Palmer is out with ankle
Out
Team Stats
Bills vs. Falcons Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Bills at Falcons Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Bills 5-2 | o27-115 | u27-108 |
Falcons 3-4 | o23-111 | u23-112 |




