Commanders vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Attempting to middle

From @Wayne_Bets After missing all of training camp with a shoulder injury, Darnell Mooney made his season debut in Week 2, and he’s had a couple of weeks to get his legs under him at this point. Mooney has been targeted 15 times in his two games, but he’s caught just six of them for 64 yards. Overall, the Falcons need to emphasize getting the downfield passing game up and running. Penix is just 1-17 with an interception on passes of 15+ yards this season after being PFF’s highest-graded passer on deep balls last season (min. 15 attempts). Mooney should be the key to unlocking this as one of the premier deep threats in the NFL - he ranked 10th with 377 yards on 20+ yard throws last season. “That’s definitely a goal that we have, to get him involved,” head coach Raheem Morris said this week. “When he’s going and he’s explosive, we’re explosive.” Morris also stated that the receiver is 100% healthy and is just going through a ramp-up period after missing training camp. This looks like a prime spot to get that deep passing game rolling against a Commanders defense that has allowed 55.3 yards per game on 20+ yard throws (6th-most) and just 83 yards per game on throws less than 10 yards (3rd-fewest). The Commanders also play single-high coverage at a 55.8% rate (13th), and Mooney leads the team with a 32.1% target share and 50% air-yard share against single-high coverage per Fantasy Points Data. Let’s bet on some positive regression for the talented receiver this week. #PlayerProps

Proj: 7.2. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Luvu’s cleared this in 2 of 3 games with lines of 7, 2, 7, a 5.33 average, and that came against an easy opening schedule for LBs. His schedule-adjusted expected is 4.8 tackles per game. Luvu rushes the QB at a high rate, and he’s doing so at 2% higher this season. That’s great for sacks, but it pulls him out of off-ball tackle chances, which is why this prop usually comes down to whether he gets to the QB. When Luvu does not record a sack, he stayed under 6.5 55% of the time last season. When he did record a sack, he cleared it 67% of the time. Michael Penix Jr. has quickly become one of the toughest QBs to sack, so Luvu’s upside takes a hit here. I’m projecting him around 5.7, with roughly 62% to stay under 6.5.

Mooney's recorded 20 and 44 yards this season but was still ramping up since he missed camp. Three weeks into the season I think we're pretty much there + still getting a slight discount on his line. Last week he had 4 catches on an insane 11 TRG (led ATL) - his TRG will certainly drop and London should lead the team again but the #s are still very promising. He ran 39 routes for a 86.7% RT% and would've been higher if it wasn't for the blowout. WAS run man at the 6th highest rate - Mooney was over 5/8 vs. teams T12 in man coverage last season. In 11 routes vs. man this season (very small sample), Mooney leads ATL w/ a 0.47 TPRR - LS AVG a 0.25 TPRR. Mooney is much better vs. man: 0.24 TPRR / 2.80 YPRR vs. 0.20 TPRR / 1.78 YPRR against zone. WR vs. WAS: - Tucker: 8/9/145 (covered) - Meyers: 3/4/63 (covered) - Wicks: 4/6/44 (covered) - Doubs: 3/5/28 - Nabers: 5/12/71 (covered) - Robinson: 6/8/55 (covered)

Should see a big boost here in playing time and usage (along with Lane) with Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown OUT. They also lost Austin Ekeler for the season which opens up even more potential targets. It could be a rare trailing game script for Was and while Mariota isn’t nearly as good as Daniels as a passer, he scrambles at a lower rate which helps add more potential pass attempts. He has a wide range of outcomes here but I’m projecting his median closer to 24

Pass the Prop best bet #1

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