Bengals vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

@TheBMatt

@nick_giffen

Medium pick for the TD show

🔬Chubba has been one of the most efficient runners in football and now faces a bengals defense who allowed -Stevenson 25 for 120yards & Pacheco 19 for 90 - on top of that Cincy is missing 1 interior D lineman (Sheldon Rankins) & maybe another (BJ Hill) 🔬Hubbard is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and his rush attempts is set o/u 15 - implying a 70+ yard day with an offense that can now move the ball down the field more often than was the case with Bryce young

Burrow has yet to throw an interception this season and has always taken good care of the football in his career. This week he gets a good matchup to go under again vs a bad Panthers team. Panthers defense ranks dead last in QB hits, 24th in sack % and 15th in INT % this season. They haven't been able to produce the kind of pressure that can force some bad throws, but even if they could, Burrow is smart with the ball and will take the sack over an interception. Last time Burrow threw a pick was in November of last season and I like him to stay under again this week in a matchup that should see his team up and running the ball more with the Panthers ranking 28th vs the run.

#ProSystem . under system Overall: 194-102-4,66% (ROI:25%) Season:9-5-1,64% (ROI:22%)

Fliff

- Carolina's defense is pretty awful all around. They are bad against the run (allow 4th most RB rush yards, 4.62 YPC, 8th worst PFF run grade). I think that Moss and Chase Brown have success running the ball here. - I think we could see some explosive pass plays here from Cincy. First of all, Carolina has the 2nd worst pass-rush, and the 6th worst coverage grade per PFF. Burrow, Chase, Higgins should be able to generate explosive plays, which is really bad for pass attempts. Carolina also plays the 2nd most single-high safety looks, another thing that makes you prone to allowing explosive plays. - Cincy's defense is also awful. Panthers with Dalton will be able to sustain drives, and the Panthers OC has been taking about running the ball a ton. Cincy ranks 29th in EPA/30th in Success Rate on defense. - I would also like to think that the 0-3 Bengals come to play here and aren't in a position where they play from behind and are forced to pass.

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Missed by the hook in a game where the Bengals were trailing throughout, and the Cincy D did not force one punt or turnover. I don’t see any of that happening against the Panthers, and Carolina is ranked 27th in DVOA against the run (per FTN), and I’d be shocked if the Bengals didn’t look to exploit that.

Here is the deal: we don’t trust either one of these teams but have more faith in the Bengals. Moss has shown to be the clear RB1 in carries and don’t expect this to be the game he yields to Chase Brown in that department. The Panthers defense has been soft all season and the Bengals maintain a dangerous group of weapons despite their inability to put Ws on the board. Look for the Bengals to roll and Moss to roll right along with them.

Line still feels low after clearing this in his last two games on just 4 and 7 carries. Another plus matchup where I can see the Bengals leaning on the ground game.

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Bengals come into this matchup desperately needing a win after starting the season 0-3. Despite their record, Cincinnati has shown flashes of what they're capable of, especially in their most recent game against Washington. They managed to outgain their opponent with 436 total yards compared to 356, tied in the turnover battle, and converted 60% of their third-down opportunities. Joe Burrow had an impressive outing, throwing for 324 yards and three touchdowns, while Ja'Marr Chase continued to shine with 118 receiving yards and two scores. Cincinnati’s offense, although not fully firing on all cylinders, has averaged a respectable 22.7 points per game with 237.3 passing yards. Burrow has been effective, completing 70.9% of his passes and showing strong chemistry with Chase. Given the talent on this offense, the Bengals are primed for a breakout performance, especially against a Panthers defense that has been struggling mightily. Carolina, on the other hand, has been one of the most underwhelming teams this season. Coming off blowout losses to New Orleans and the Chargers, they’ve averaged just 16.3 points per game and have struggled to generate offense, particularly in the passing game, averaging only 170 passing yards. More concerning is their inefficiency on third downs, converting just 20.6% of their opportunities, which ranks dead last in the NFL. On top of that, their defense has been abysmal, allowing 31.7 points per game, which ranks them among the worst in the league. Their inability to stop opposing offenses, coupled with their struggles on both sides of the ball, makes them an easy target for a Bengals team that will be playing with urgency. Cincinnati’s defense, although not elite, has been far more reliable than Carolina’s, and given how poorly the Panthers have executed offensively, it’s hard to envision Carolina keeping up with the Bengals' passing attack. The Panthers' weak third-down conversion rate and their porous defense give the Bengals a significant edge here. Look for Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to take advantage of the Panthers’ weak secondary and for Cincinnati to control the tempo of the game.

Overreaction