Chargers vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2024

Proj: -6.5. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

Via Nick Giffen

@convince_me

While he is “tracking to play”, Palmer is assumed to not be at 100% running routes this week after being limited in practice on Wednesday & Thursday to not practicing on Friday. On top of that, this game will likely be a poor schematic matchup for him. In Week 1, the Panthers continued where’d they left off playing Coverage 3 at the highest rate in the league. In 2023, Palmer ranked 102 out of 122 qualified receivers against this coverage scheme per Fantasy Points. And then there’s usage concerns - With rookie Ladd McConkney coming to the team, Palmer didn’t look like the WR1 we all thought he would be. His 8.3% First Read% was 4th ranked on the team and below McConkey, Quentin Johnston, & Hayden Hurst. Finally, there’s the game environment. With the Chargers being 5.5 point favorites, and the Panthers losing their best run game tackler in DT Dereck Brown, the team could be opting to run the ball more, an initiative OC Greg Roman and HC Harbaugh are bringing to the team, with the team ranking 11th highest in run% in neutral situations in Week 1. #PlayerProps

Just ignore this one

JK Dobbins over 54.5 Rushing Yards Seen this line kinda all over the place on a lot of books, but the most consistent line was this one and 55.5, so either one you can find take it there. JK Dobbins was an amazing RB in college at Ohio State, but his journey in the pros has been nothing but injuries. It is a shame because he is so electic when healthy. Fortunately for him, he is healthy again and now in an offensive scheme where he should thrive. Dobbins is over this line in 6/L7 games he has played and his only miss was in the 2023 opener vs the Texans where he suffered a season ending Achilles tear. In week 1 against the Raiders, Dobbin ran for 135 yards and 1 TD with an insane 13.5 YPC on just 10 carries. That YPC is skewed since he did rip a 61 yard TD run, but still it was clear how good of a runner he still is post injury. This week he faces the Panthers who are without a doubt, the worst team in the NFL. They also have a terrible run defense and lost their star DE Derrick Brown in their week 1 blowout loss to the Saints. The Panthers run defense ranks 4th worst in rushing yards and 8th worst in YPC. Dobbins splits the backfield with Gus Edwards, but after Edwards started the beginning of the game and saw Dobbins break some big runs, the Chargers went more and more to Dobbins in the run game. Justin Herbert's line for this game is 201.5 passing yards, which indicates we will see more running in this one from the Chargers offense. HC Jim Harbaugh loved to run the ball with Blake Corum at Michigan and he has brought that style to this Chargers offense. It also doesn't help that the Chargers lost Allen and Williams, their two top receivers in free agency this offseason. Not only is the scheme setup to help Dobbins get the touches to exceed this line, but we should have a positive game script with the Chargers winning this game and feeding Dobbins to run out the clock and close out the win. The Chargers are currently -5.5 favorites to win this game and a heavy -238 favorite on the ML.

🔬A healthy JK would have been one of the best backs in the league. He showed us again last week that he can still show flashes of that guy. 🔬After splitting the Carries pretty evenly with Gus, it’s not crazy to think Dobbins gets an even high % of the touches this week in one of the biggest OL mismatches vs a poor Carolina front 🔬Dobbins has scored in the last 3 games he’s played in now 🔬Kamara, last week vs CAR, rushed for an Avg of 5.5 yards per carry on 15 touches and scored once

Stuckey 3

@Stuckey2

Doesn’t look like the 7 is coming. Bought to pod price given out

- This is a great spot for LAC. I expected the Saints run game to be awful, but with two aging RBs in Kamara and Williams behind a terrible O-Line, they ran all over the Panthers. And Carolina lost a legit elite DT in Derrick Brown for the year in that game. - LAC is 6.5 pt favorites. We had high expectations for the Panthers taking a leap on offense, but they once again looked terrible. Like league worst bad. Good for plays ran, good for gamescript. We know Harbaugh/Roman will run the ball a ton in these game environments, and Roman has good schemes. - Carolina in week 1 allowed the 2nd highest success rate vs Zone concepts, and 6th highest vs Man/Gap. They were awful against both. Kamara went 15-83 on the ground. - Dobbins looked great, and I'm happy for him. However especially in Week 2, I think he may still have a ceiling around 12 rush attempts. Roman said they will ride with the hot hand before the season. Dobbins was by far the hot hand, and he still got out-carried by Gus 11-10. If they're going to run the ball 30 times here, I think Gus will carry more of the load. - Just love the LAC run game here. I'll take Gus at a line 10 yards lower when I expect the split to be around 50/50.

If you are a believer in QJ, you are encouraged by the route participation in week 1. However, I believe in Josh Palmer and Ladd more. I don’t believe he will earn enough targets in the limited passing opportunities we are likely to see this week. They are up against a Carolina team that figures to get punched in the mouth repeatedly by Greg Roman and the Charger run game, and in general I want to be bearish on QJ until he proves he can earn targets consistently in this league. #PropBet

.tsa under system Overall: 188-100-3,65% (ROI:25%) Season:2-3-0,40% (ROI:-23%) .tsa close games windy unders Overall: 440-292-7,60% (ROI:16%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-5%)

Pick em #2