Bears vs. Colts Odds & Betting Predictions - September 22, 2024

Paint my nails and call me Caleb

@SimonHunterNFL

@convince_me

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-today-for-ej-speed-colby-parkinson

Think we got an overreaction here. In Week 2, there was a misleading utilization of Trey Sermon, who saw a significant increase in his playing time percentage from 4.7% 📈 34.0%. This increase was primarily due to his better pass protection for Anthony Richardson. In a game where the Colts were trailing 3-13 at the start of the 4th quarter and needed to adopt a pass-heavy strategy, the offensive coordinator Shane Steichen strategically fully replaced Jonathan Taylor with Trey Sermon. It's important to note that almost all of Sermon's 18 plays were during third-down snaps and two-minute drills. Therefore, if the Colts weren't behind by two scores, we wouldn't have seen this increase in Sermon's playing time. In the upcoming game against CHI, without Keenan Allen, the Colts should be able to keep the game competitive, allowing Jonathan Taylor to once again lead the team with over 88% of the rushing attempts. I’m projecting the very most 2 carries for Sermon, still having to compete with Tyler Goodson for backup RB2 duties. #PlayerProps

Model is still in favor of under 57.5 and seems to be favoring more scripts where Chicago cannot repeat the extreme rush heavy game plan of Green Bay a week ago. The Bears offense in tandem with Swift (2.0 YPC) have been ineffective rushing in 2024. The Colts have been gashed by the Texans and Colts in consecutive weeks on the ground, but I’m sticking with the Sim model and banking on the Colts plugging the gaps against a far inferior back (compared to Jacobs and Mixon).

-Caleb was recently patronized, or “sonned/Lil Bro’d”, by Stroud. The irony in this narrative is that Stroud was still at Ohio State the year Caleb won the Heisman -The talks of Caleb being a downgrade from Fields are starting to circulate, and I think this is the week those conversations end as Caleb responds to both of these motivational narratives. Maybe the Bears rushing game can finally provide help for their rookie QB too

52 in 2g, may not be healthy, facing tough MU. Downs being back could also result in slight snap decrease.

Last 20 years, Colts are 39-24-1 ATS (62%) in games 2-4 – best of any team in the NFL, with each of their five head coaches .500 ATS or better, and Shane Steichen 2-2 ATS so far with Indy.

Kitchen Sink week! TAN pod