If you want our NFL best bets for Sunday player props, you've come to the right place.
Our betting analysts have you covered with 11 picks on Sunday afternoon, with just 3 at 1 p.m. ET and then a feast for the late slate of games with a whopping 8 props. We have bets on stars like Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, as well as breakout stars like Brock Bowers or Jordan Mason
Let's get into our NFL picks for the 12 games on Sunday afternoon.
NFL Best Bets: Player Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Tank Dell Thrives Against Zone Coverage
Tank Dell
Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
This line moved very quickly on Friday, going from -120 to -150 at some sportsbooks. I'd comfortably take a ticket here as short as -140.
The Vikings defense has been great so far this season, ranking in the top five in DVOA against both the pass and the run. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is going to bring a lot of pressure with a high blitz rate and he'll have his unit show a ton of zone coverage.
Well, Tank Dell has excelled at finding holes in zone coverage and offers a nice boost in targets per route ran against zone coverage compared to his overall target baselines. I have him projected for 4.49 receptions in a game that should be rather up-paced and offer plenty of pass attempts from C.J. Stroud.
This is one of my higher edges on the week of 23.57% on the over.
Pick: Tank Dell Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
How To Bet Justin Fields Props
Justin Fields
Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Kyle Murray
We're likely getting a nice little discount on this number thanks to Justin Fields rushing for just 27 yards last game, but he had 57 yards in Week 1 and has gone over this number in 70% of his last 20 games.
Fields had eight rush attempts last week and while I would expect more. If eight is his floor, I still like him to go over this number. We weren't getting rushing totals like this on Fields last year, so we'll take them now.
Pick: Justin Fields Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Rome Odunze Has Potential Breakout Spot
Rome Odunze
Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The Bears will be without Keenan Allen on Sunday, and the final injury report listed Rome Odunze as a full participant on Friday.
Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will run a ton of Cover 3 with a very low blitz rate, and the unit was hurt when DeForest Buckner landed on injured reserve). Going back in history to Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's time in Seattle, the two outside receivers — DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett — shared an equal balance in targets per routes ran against the Cover 3.
With all the stars aligning for a make-or-break type of game for the Bears offense, Caleb Williams should finally be able to breathe a bit after the snap. Look for Williams and his outside receivers to have a field day while avoiding the interior blanket of Kenny Moore.
I have Odunze at 47.72 receiving yards, which equates to a perceived 27% edge on Over 35.5 at -125.
Pick: Rome Odunze Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
No Tua, No Problem for Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill
Anytime TD Scorer (+185)
I get that Skylar Thompson is a massive downgrade from Tua Tagovailoa, but Tyreek Hill is far too good of a receiver to have these odds.
While Thompson didn't do much back in 2022 when he was forced to make several starts, he was a rookie and didn't fully know the offense. Now, Thompson should be more familiar with Mike McDaniel's scheme and be a better overall fit for this offense.
Hill is still going to get massive volume in this offense and is always a threat to score anywhere on the field. I have the true odds on this bet around +150.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Anytime TD Scorer (+185)
DK Metcalf Prop Pick
DK Metcalf
Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
By Kyle Murray
We bricked on this play in Week 1. Of course, Metcalf went for 10 grabs in Week 2, but I am going back to him again.
The Seahawks clearly want to throw and should want to even more with running back Kenneth Walker likely out. Metcalf accounted for 26% of targets In Week 2 while running 96% of routes. I'm expecting similar usage in Week 3.
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
De'Von Achane Poised for Big Role
De'Von Achane
Anytime TD Scorer (+125)
I don't love the fact that Tagovailoa won't be playing this weekend. At these odds, though, De'Von Achane is still worth a look and has value.
Achane is going to be used heavily in this offense without Tagovailoa, and Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has said as much in the buildup to this game. Achane is also a huge threat in the receiving game and will be a safety net for Thompson.
Additionally, the Dolphins will likely be hammering the ball on the ground on the road with a backup quarterback. Achane might just be in line for another game of 25 or more touches.
I have Achane at over a 50% chance of scoring, making this a great bet at plus money.
Pick: De'Von Achane Anytime TD Scorer (+125)
Brock Bowers Prop Pick Amidst Rookie Breakout
Brock Bowers
Anytime TD Scorer (+230)
By Sam Farley
Brock Bowers came into the NFL as a highly touted prospect, but tight ends usually take some time to adapt to the next level. Few expected him to be this good so quickly. The former Georgia standout already looks like one of the best at his position in the NFL.
Bowers has seen 17 targets through two weeks, catching 15 of those for 156 yards and is only missing his first NFL touchdown to truly break out. That will come on Sunday against a Panthers defense that has let Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson find the end zone against it this season already.
Pick: Brock Bowers Anytime TD Scorer (+230)
Chuba Hubbard Is the Panthers' Lead Running Back
Chuba Hubbard
Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
By Sam Farley
The Panthers are an interesting proposition this week with Andy Dalton under center.
Dalton will be an upgrade on Bryce Young and make that offense more effective — it can't get worse! Chuba Hubbard should benefit from that.
Hubbard saw his carries rise from six to 10 between Weeks 1 and 2, and it just might go up again. The Raiders have allowed 163.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, and it looks like Hubbard, rather than Miles Sanders, is in the driver's seat to get the bulk of carries.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Jordan Mason Prop: 49ers RB Set for Another Big Game
Jordan Mason
Anytime TD Scorer (-138)
I don't love taking touchdown bets with odds like this, but there is still some decent value on Jordan Mason.
The 49ers have a high team total as they usually do, and the volume for Mason should be massive. While he isn't as good as Christian McCaffrey, Mason has scored in both games this season and logged 20 carries in each game.
McCaffrey scored in nearly every game he played with the 49ers, and Mason should put up similar numbers in the rushing game. I have the chance of him scoring at nearly 70%, making this a great bet.
Pick: Jordan Mason Anytime TD Scorer (-138)
Lamar Jackson Props: Bet the MVP's Rushing Over
Lamar Jackson
Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
For a third straight week, I'm going back to the well again on Lamar Jackson. He would have hit last week if he didn't lateral the ball at the end of the game.
Jackson has been fantastic on the ground through two games with 167 total rushing yards. He's now in a spot that will likely require him to use his legs.
Ravens vs. Cowboys has has a one-point spread and a 48.5 total, so we can expect this one to be a potentially high-scoring barnburner. Jackson might rush the ball 15 times in this game, and I'm hitting the ladder on his rushing yards again.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Kyler Murray Pick: How To Bet Cardinals QB
Kyler Murray
Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
The Lions have struggled to stop QBs from scrambling and running all over them for the last two years.
Last year, Detroit allowed the third-most QB rushing yards in the NFL, and it just let Baker Mayfield run for 34 yards last week.
Kyler Murray looks very healthy this season and has at least 50 rushing yards in both games so far this season. This should be a great spot for Murray.
Pick: Kyler Murray Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
