Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - April 28, 2026

Jokic is absolutely popping as a buy-low in my Pass Mix analysis. He has just 31 assists through 4 games on 60 potential assists, but he’s due for positive regression in just about every facet. His teammates have been letting him down on conversion rate, passing up shots they normally take, and he also has 8 adjusted assists, which includes potential assists lost to shooting fouls or hockey-style assists. So it’s not just one area running cold, it’s multiple. The Nuggets themselves are due for roughly 3 more assists tonight as a team, and a big chunk of that naturally flows through Jokic. That makes this the ultimate buy-low on a guy who probably gets over money in 90%+ of games. This is one of the rare spots where the public may lean under (more than normal), or just stay away entirely, which makes it even more interesting. I have him projected closer to 10.4 assists with around a 59% chance to clear 9.5, and it shapes up as one of the better buy-low spots you’ll get on Jokic.