The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) and Denver Nuggets (1-3) will face off in Game 5 of their first-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Nuggets -11.5), with the over/under set at 222.5 total points. Denver is a -500 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is +380 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Monday, April 27.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets pick: Under 222.5 (-110)
My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 5 best bet is on the total to stay under 222.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds for Game 5
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | +380 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview, Analysis
I want no part of the side; not even a little bit. The Nuggets look positively cooked. They quit in Game 4 pretty badly.
However, Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are both sidelined for the Timberwolves now, and that causes problems for Minnesota.
If Aaron Gordon plays, I make the spread for this game Nuggets -8.5. So, I lean toward the Wolves in this spot.
But, there's also a chance Denver might respond by finally looking like themselves with their backs against the wall in Game 5 tonight.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview, Analysis
Denver is a 11.5-point road favorite in tonight's game. Road favorites trailing 3-1 in a series are 26-19 ATS (58%).
The Nuggets need their shots to start falling, which has been a problem lately. They have the worst 3-point percentage in the playoffs despite being one of the best perimeter shooting teams all season.
After the emotional letdown of losing Game 4, combined with Denver finally respecting itself after getting punked by Jaden McDaniels for three straight games, it’s an ideal spot for the Nuggets — but I just don’t trust them.
There’s no good answer here, so I’ll avoid the side in Game 5.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Pick, Betting Analysis
Total: Under 222.5
We’re tracking the majority of tickets and money on the over, but it’s moved down two points, indicating sharp action on the under.
When teams are down 3-1 and favored at home, the under is 25-18-2, 58%.
I project this total at 220, and think that Denver’s defense will be better against worse weapons with more time to prepare — and the Nuggets' offense may continue to struggle because they simply don’t look like a team that wants to fight.
Player Prop: Cameron Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds
Cam Johnson has stayed under 3.5 rebounds in all three games in this series, and he simply hasn’t looked physical enough to make an impact in this particular matchup.
The Wolves are ravenous and athletic, and Johnson just looks slow and labored. He’s not making an impact in this series, and rebounds are an impactful metric against Minnesota.
Matt Moore's Timberwolves vs Nuggets Best Bets
- Under 222.5 (-110)
- Cameron Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds (-140)
