Texans vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 27, 2025

Tailing @nick_giffen

Sched adj expected scores make this 37.5 before factoring in that both HOU starting tackles are inactive, no Joe Alt for LAC, and two negative QB coverage matchups. May look for a live under as well depending on game state

Marks is a rookie RB I wasn’t particularly high on, but I did think it was a great landing spot to produce right away since Joe Mixon was unlikely to suit up this season and Nick Chubb wasn’t expected to regain his pre-2023 form. Sure enough, Marks became the Texans’ lead back around Week 4 and hasn’t looked back. However, an ankle injury in Week 15 opened the door for Jawhar Jordan to flash his upside, and he became the team’s first 100+ rushing yard performance against the Cardinals. Last week, Jordan came back down to Earth but still took over as the lead back with Marks out, rushing for 15/53/0. Marks has since been removed from the injury report and should be much closer to 100% here. I do expect him to reclaim the lead role, but there’s a real chance Jordan mixes in more than Nick Chubb did earlier in the season, and Chubb himself could still see some early-down work. So Marks suddenly has the most competition he’s seen since Week 4. There’s obviously a path where Marks gets hot early, sees 15–20+ carries, and easily clears this number. That’s the risk with any median yardage prop. But the uncertainty in how this backfield distributes rush attempts lowers Marks’ floor specifically, since the lead back usually takes the biggest hit when roles are unclear. There are also a few underlying factors working against him. Out of 48 qualified RBs, Marks ranks dead last in success rate at 32%. Some of that could be OL-related or scheme-related, but either way he’s been contacted behind the line of scrimmage and stuffed at top-10 rates. The Texans could be searching for more of a spark in the run game, which again works against Marks with Jordan emerging and Chubb back healthy. RT Trent Brown being ruled out also matters. Marks is averaging 4.1 YPC on rushes to the right side in Brown’s 7 healthy games, compared to just 3.4 YPC in the 8 games without him. His absence could hurt Marks specifically. On top of that, as 2-point road dogs, the Texans are projected to play with the lead at a 14% lower rate than their season average, which likely means fewer rushing attempts overall. I’m projecting Marks closer to 46 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to stay under 51.5. There’s a wider range of outcomes here, but those are often the exact spots worth rolling the dice on this late in the season, when the market gets much sharper.

Join Discord: https://discord.gg/NcyhmJVXPe

Herbskizzle

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Action Instagram channel best bet is Texans +1.5. I’m going just to bet their ML at plus odds at this point but that’s just me - let’s ride 🚀

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting closer to 2.9 with around a 68% chance to stay under 3.5

Click the 🌐 icon at the top of my profile to level up your gambling experience with Juice Reel! Explore bettors accurately tracking their results and find edges yourself. You can even find me on there! Check it out! ⬇️ https://juicereel.onelink.me/qkUM/hhy4dvtr

Houston Pass rush good Chargers Pass pro bad Chargers no score Houston ugly cover Anders and friends get rich

#Tailing @nick_giffen

CJ Stroud over 10.5 rush yds (-110 at Bet365, -115 DK, -118 BetMGM) Stroud has 24 scrambles in 12 starts this year, and with two of those starts cut short he really is averaging closer to 2.2 scrambles per 100% of snaps. His 5.7% scramble rate is set to go up in this game, as the Los Angeles Chargers do some things that promote QB scrambling. Namely, they have a top 10 pressure rate over expectation (PrROE) and they play a lot of two-high safety looks, keeping an extra man out of the box, yielding more room for scrambles. That means the Chargers have allowed a top-10 raw scrambling rate to QBs, and a 0.25% scramble rate over expectation, which would put Stroud a tick shy of a 6% scramble rate. At 38 projected dropbacks, that's 2.25 scrambles. The Chargers allow 7.33 yards per scramble, and Stroud averages 7.95 yards per scramble, so two scrambles should, on average, put him well clear of this line. He also may have a designed run or sneak in there, of which he's had 16 in 12 games which should gain him an extra yard or two on average, but should also relatively balance out with any potential kneeldowns. That means I have Stroud clearing this line around 61.5% of the time just on scrambles alone. I even have him clearing 12.5 nearly 55.5% of the time, so I'm fine with this at -114 at FanDuel if that's your only option.

Just betting on the better team

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/oIyNoZLxmZb

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/9Vu6o9PHlZb

@ChrisRaybon 1 https://myaction.app/hCTBZDpHlZb

🚀Become a Pro Bettor in 7-Days! (Link in Bio)

🔥 Week 17 Hot Read 🔥