Steelers vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 10, 2025

Meant to bet Chargers here

Last one

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Talked about this on numerous pods/shows this week but Patterson is mixing in more than I expected and he had the hot hand in the 2H last week. I expect Vidal to get the start and have the first crack at getting the hot hand, but projecting his median closer to 12.5 with around a 61% chance to stay under 13.5 (every att in a market like this is massive)

Exchange. Via @wheatonbrando

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Last week was a great Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. We knew it but sat it out anyway, and the Steelers came through with their best game of the season. The Steel Curtain finally showed up, dominating what had been the league's best offensive line and forcing six turnovers. Now they get to play the Chargers, who are on pretty much the other end of the spectrum of offensive lines. Los Angeles lost Rashawn Slater before the season, and now Joe Alt is out for the year too. That's the league's best tackle duo missing, along with big ticket free agent G Mekhi Becton and swing tackle Bobby Hart. This line is in shambles, bottom five in the league and five is probably being kind, and now it has to find answers against T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, one of the most talented defensive fronts in the league. Since drafting Alt, the Chargers are 15-5 SU when Alt plays at least half the snaps but 2-5 without him. This team has already been struggling to run the ball without its top two RBs, and now Justin Herbert will likely be under pressure all night. Meanwhile, LA's run defense looks like the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 27th by DVOA and Pittsburgh has run the ball very well this year, top five by DVOA with Jaylen Warren getting most of the work and excelling in Arthur Smith's scheme. Aaron Rodgers has also been at his best when he can get the ball out quickly, and the Chargers don't offer much pressure. On top of all that, Pittsburgh should have a huge special teams advantage, and the Steelers could even end up with something of a home field advantage in LA where Chargers fans are sparse and Steelers fans should show up in drives with their Terrible Towels. It's always a good idea to consider backing Tomlin as an underdog. He's 54-24-1 ATS as a dog from Week 5 forward (68%), though this is not a home game, not in the division, not after a big loss — things that usually make for a better Rah Rah spot. It does fit another trend though. When Tomlin is an underdog immediately after winning outright as a dog, the Steelers are an incredible 20-5-2 ATS, covering 80% of the time and winning the last eight such meetings outright! Bet Steelers +3 to get the cover on Sunday night. And rather than investing much on a +130 ML play as an escalator, take it one step further. If the Chargers do lose here, they're suddenly up against it with the Jaguars up next, with both opponents key competitors in the AFC wildcard race. I recommended Chargers to miss the playoff at +225 (BetRivers) as my Extra Point in this week's Pick Six, and that works as a great escalator to a Steelers win here.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/fo0oUthH6Xb

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/EvaZ2p3F6Xb

My favorite side of the week. Was hoping we might get a +3.5 but moving the other way and don’t want to lose the 3. Last week was a great Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. We knew it but sat it out anyway, and the Steelers came through with their best game of the season. The Steel Curtain finally showed up, dominating what had been the league's best offensive line and forcing six turnovers. Now they get to play the Chargers, who are on pretty much the other end of the spectrum of offensive lines. Los Angeles lost Rashawn Slater before the season, and now Joe Alt is out for the year too. That's the league's best tackle duo missing, along with big ticket free agent G Mekhi Becton and swing tackle Bobby Hart. This line is in shambles, bottom five in the league and five is probably being kind, and now it has to find answers against T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, one of the most talented defensive fronts in the league. Since drafting Alt, the Chargers are 15-5 SU when Alt plays at least half the snaps but 2-5 without him. This team has already been struggling to run the ball without its top two RBs, and now Justin Herbert will likely be under pressure all night. Meanwhile, LA's run defense looks like the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 27th by DVOA and Pittsburgh has run the ball very well this year, top five by DVOA with Jaylen Warren getting most of the work and excelling in Arthur Smith's scheme. Aaron Rodgers has also been at his best when he can get the ball out quickly, and the Chargers don't offer much pressure. On top of all that, Pittsburgh should have a huge special teams advantage, and the Steelers could even end up with something of a home field advantage in LA where Chargers fans are sparse and Steelers fans should show up in drives with their Terrible Towels. It's always a good idea to consider backing Tomlin as an underdog. He's 54-24-1 ATS as a dog from Week 5 forward (68%), though this is not a home game, not in the division, not after a big loss — things that usually make for a better Rah Rah spot. It does fit another trend though. When Tomlin is an underdog immediately after winning outright as a dog, the Steelers are an incredible 20-5-2 ATS, covering 80% of the time and winning the last eight such meetings outright! Bet Steelers +3 to get the cover on Sunday night. And rather than investing much on a +130 ML play as an escalator, take it one step further. If the Chargers do lose here, they're suddenly up against it with the Jaguars up next, with both opponents key competitors in the AFC wildcard race. I recommended Chargers to miss the playoff at +225 (BetRivers) as my Extra Point in this week's Pick Six, and that works as a great escalator to a Steelers win here.

2.27% ev play to -126