The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) and Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) meet for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Chargers are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Steelers (Chargers -3; -115), with an over/under of 45.5. The Chargers are -170 moneyline favorites while the Steelers are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Steelers vs Chargers prediction for Sunday Night Football, plus the latest NFL odds, betting trends, injury reports, viewing information and more.
Steelers vs Chargers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Steelers vs Chargers Spread: Steelers +3 (-105), Chargers -3 (-115)
- Steelers vs Chargers Total: 45.5
- Steelers vs Chargers Moneyline: Steelers +140, Chargers -170
Sunday Night Football Preview, Prediction
Note: All data is via FTN unless otherwise noted.
The Steelers defense after the first eight weeks of the season ranked 23rd in EPA per dropback (0.167) and 21st in pass success rate (49.2%), according to rbsdm.com.
They made some key changes ahead of Week 9, which led to their best performance of the season, holding a Colts offense that entered Week 9 ranked third in EPA per dropback (0.290) to a -0.268 mark — the worst of any offense in Week 9.
The Steelers accomplished this by moving Jalen Ramsey from corner, where he had been struggling, to safety, where he was an upgrade.
They blitzed at their lowest rate of the season; they also played more two-high coverages. The result was more bodies in coverage, tight windows and less breakdowns.
The Steelers were also more successful against play-action and motion. This type of scheme always made sense because the Steelers don't need to blitz to get pressure given how dominant their defensive line is, led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Hayward.
The switch in strategy will make this matchup more difficult for the Chargers and Justin Herbert.
Herbert is averaging 6.4 yards per dropback against single-high coverages, but 5.6 against two-high. He's averaging 8.2 yards per attempt (YPA) when blitzed, but 6.8 YPA when not blitzed, per PFF.
The Chargers will have to deal with Watt, Hayward, and company without the services of tackle Joe Alt, who was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
In Alt's five fully healthy games, the Chargers averaged 26.8 points per game, going 5-0 straight up (SU) and 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS). In the other four, the Chargers averaged 20.3 points per game and went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS.
Steelers vs Chargers Predictions, Spread & Moneyline Analysis
According to our Action Labs data, the Steelers under head coach Mike Tomlin are 65-35-3 (65%) ATS as an underdog, producing a 26% ROI.
