Seahawks vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025

Projecting him closer to 19.5 with about a 60% chance he clears 14.5

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Terrance Ferguson overs Longest Reception over 13.5 yds (-120 at DK/HardRock, -130 MGM) 1/3u Over 20.5 rec yds (-112 at DK) 1/3u (365 has 17.5 -110 but I'll track DK since only 365 has that line) Over 1.5 recs (-110 at Bet365) 1/3u I agree with Brandon Anderson here, Ferguson is in a great spot and I'll add a few extra reasons to his writeup. Ferguson has run a route on exactly 33% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks over the last three games, which were in three games where the average Rams offensive play came with north of 80% (or even 90%) win probability in each game. Stafford averaged 35 dropbacks per game over those three, and I'm projecting him closer to 39 dropbacks in this one, especially as the Seahawks stout run defense puts the Rams in a few more long yardage situations. In addition, Ferguson's target share per route should be quite high given he has a 33% target per route run (TPRR) rate against zone coverage compared to just 18% against man, as well as a 41.7% TPRR against two-high safety looks compared to 21.7% vs. single-high sets. With Seattle running the second-most zone in the league and also the second most two-high coverage, I'm projecting around 4 targets for Ferguson. We should probably expect some regression on his 22.5 aDOT, especially because the Seahawks force teams underneath, but that just means Ferguson's expected catch rate would go up as well. I like all his overs, whether it's over on receptions, yards, or longest reception, so I'll split a third of a unit on each.

Seahawks-Rams is the new Game of the Year of the week and it looks awesome. These teams rank first and second in DVOA, with both offenses and defenses top six, and five of the last six meetings have finished within six points or less, two in overtime. I lean Rams. They're playing at home with the QB I trust more — we haven't seen Sam Darnold in many negative scripts yet, and now he's on the road with a couple injured offensive linemen — and Seattle's rushing attack is perhaps the biggest weakness for either team. If you feel good about a side, you should think about investing in that team's futures — for NFC 1-seed or to win the NFC or Super Bowl. The most intriguing part of the matchup is Sean McVay's newfound love of 13 personnel. If you're unfamiliar, "13" means one running back and three tight ends on the field, and McVay's Rams had run only 84 plays ever in 13 personnel in his first 137 games before everything changed over the last month. Suddenly 40% of Rams plays have come in 13 over the last four games, including 45% on Sunday, the second highest by any team in any NFL game in the past decade. In those plays from 13 personnel, the Rams averaged 6.7 yards a play with 63% Success Rate and 20% explosives. So why does it all matter? The goal of 13 personnel is to play heavy and force the defense to match with fewer defensive backs. Mike Macdonald's defense prefers to play in nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six), getting his team cadre of corners and safeties on the field and defending the pass. But opponents have matched the Rams 13 personnel with some version of base defense — four defensive backs — on 93% of those snaps over the last four games. That typically means more linebackers on the field, and that's the weakest spot on Seattle's defense, especially with Ernest Jones banged up. McVay is baiting opponents to put extra linebackers on the field, then attacking them with his tight ends. It's the ultimate chess game, and he's putting opponent after opponent in checkmate. More 13 has meant more runs from Blake Corum and way fewer snaps and targets for Davante Adams and especially Puka Nacua. But as you might suspect, it's also meant more production from Rams tight ends. Seattle has allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends and top five yards, and I'm looking at 6'5 Oregon rookie Terrance Ferguson. Ferguson played only eight snaps the first five Rams games, but he's been on the field closer to a third of the snaps during this 13 personnel stretch. While Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson are playing more snaps, they're also playing almost twice as many run snaps as pass. Ferguson is the passing weapon, with athleticism to stretch the field and attack. He has 11 targets on the season and 10 of them are classified as long, with an absurd 22.5 ADOT effectively double every other tight end in the league. Ferguson has only five catches in his career, but they've gone for 18, 21, 31, 32, and 36 yards. He may only touch the ball once all game, but when he does, it's usually explosive. Split your bet on Ferguson over 12.5 yards for longest catch (-115) and longest catch 20+ at +210, both at bet365. Every catch of his career cashes the first bet, so just one reception should do, and all but one cash the second. Seattle has already allowed eight 20-yard receptions to tight ends this season. Three of Ferguson's five catches are 30+ yards so touch that too at +550 (bet365) for longest reception, but I'll also play 60+ total yards at +1000 in case he doesn't get one long catch but does get unleashed for a few big plays. Could Terrance Ferguson be Sean McVay's secret weapon?

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/IlEcwUOFiYb

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Adding a unit. +111 on the exchange market. Don’t be scared off on the 2.5, 2 is the 4th most common outcome in the NFL so if we’re getting that at north of a coin flip, I see major value here.