Panthers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025
Panthers at Falcons
6:00 pm • FOXPanthers at Falcons Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers 6-5 | +3.5 | +4-106 | o42-114 | +182 |
 Falcons 3-7 | u45.5 | -4-114 | u42-110 | -225 |
Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlanta
Panthers vs. Falcons Expert Picks
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 82-91-2 (-4.1u)
ATL -119 (Live)
1.5u
Live hedge. A lot riding on Carolina to cover 3.5 here.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 234-209-13 (+14.2u)
J.Coker u2.5 Recs-105
1u
3.89% ev play to -114
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 37-40-0 (-7.3u)
CAR +4-105
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 234-209-13 (+14.2u)
D.Mooney o2.5 Recs-110
0.91u
3.76% ev play to -119
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 100-114-8 (-1.7u)
R.Dowdle 2+ TDs Yes+650
0.2u
Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 57-43-1 (+4.5u)
B.Young u28.5 Pass Att-115
1u
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 171-124-3 (+14.9u)
N.Scott u5.5 Tackles + Ast+110
0.45u
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 57-32-0 (+13.0u)
N.Scott u5.5 Tackles + Ast+110
0.5u
Proj closer to 5.1 with around a 61% chance to stay under 5.5
Babs .
Last 30d: 99-100-1 (-3.1u)
CAR +3.5-105
0.95u
Roger Goodell
Last 30d: 40-45-0 (-0.3u)
D.London o74.5 Rec Yds-110
0.45u
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 62-132-1 (+24.9u)
R.Dowdle o199.5 Rush Yds+2500
0.1u
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
R.Dowdle o159.5 Rush Yds+950
0.1u
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
R.Dowdle o179.5 Rush Yds+1720
0.1u
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
R.Dowdle 24+ Rushing Attempts Yes+261
0.25u
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
R.Dowdle o21.5 Rush Att+155
0.5u
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
R.Dowdle o139.5 Rush Yds+600
0.25u
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
Chris Gimino
Last 30d: 27-37-0 (-11.1u)
K.Pitts u4.5 Recs-108
0.93u
M.Penix o2.5 Rush Att-110
1u
Will Brinson
Last 30d: 20-24-2 (-2.2u)
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+100
1u
Matt Moore
Last 30d: 71-91-2 (-4.2u)
ATL -3.5-105
1.1u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 33-110-1 (-5.2u)
T.McMillan Anytime TD Scorer Yes+225
1.13u
@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/IlEcwUOFiYb
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+125
0.5u
@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/IlEcwUOFiYb
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 81-157-1 (+4.6u)
R.Dowdle o199.5 Rush Yds+2500
0.1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb
R.Dowdle o179.5 Rush Yds+1720
0.1u
R.Dowdle o139.5 Rush Yds+600
0.17u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb
R.Dowdle o159.5 Rush Yds+950
0.11u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb
R.Dowdle 24+ Rushing Attempts Yes+261
0.38u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb
R.Dowdle o21.5 Rush Att+155
0.65u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb
The Favorites Podcast
Last 30d: 20-22-0 (+2.1u)
CAR +3.5-112
1u
@BKPicks https://myaction.app/6S8Oz4TJgYb
Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 220-204-11 (+12.2u)
B.Young o160.5 Pass Yds-114
1u
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 82-91-2 (-4.1u)
CAR +3.5-105
2u
Fading Atlanta off a Berlin OT game vs a team that blasted them earlier in the season.
FTN Fantasy
Last 30d: 110-126-1 (-24.5u)
ATL -3.5-115
1u
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 62-132-1 (+24.9u)
CAR +4-110
0.23u
🔥 Week 11 Hot Read 🔥
Sunday went as expected and falcons are in an even worse spot now. Doubling down, adding ML
CAR +175
0.44u
🔥 Week 11 Hot Read 🔥
Sunday went as expected and falcons are in an even worse spot now. Doubling down, adding ML
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 142-152-2 (+58.6u)
CAR +3.5-115
1.74u
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Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 62-132-1 (+24.9u)
CAR +3.5-115
0.87u
WEEK 11 LOOKAHEAD��
Last week's Lookahead pick was one of my favorite of the season — Lions -3 in a revenge spot against an ailing Washington squad. That pick is looking pretty tasty a week later with Jayden Daniels out.
This week's Lookahead is a bit less aggressive, but it's all about the spot.
We started our day in Berlin long ago with the Falcons and Colts, but now Atlanta has to cross six time zones to return home for a game without a bye week.
When teams return from an international game with no bye, those tired teams have tied or trailed in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 following games. That tells us Atlanta should at least leave the door open for Carolina late.
The Panthers have won six of 11 against Atlanta, and seven of those 11 were one-score games, so this division rivalry is usually close. Road dogs of between three and seven points are 56.4% in division games over the last two decades, so this is a good spot to back Carolina, whose stout run defense may hold up against Atlanta.
I make this closer to a toss-up and the line may head that direction if Sunday's results go as expected, with Atlanta losing big to start the morning and Carolina getting a big win over the Saints.
If that happens, Atlanta will be on a four-game losing streak while the Panthers will have won five of six and fully entered the playoff race, and there's no way this stays above the key number. Grab Panthers +3.5 while it's available.
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 81-157-1 (+4.6u)
CAR +3.5-115
0.87u
@wheatonbrando Week 11 Lookahead https://myaction.app/fo0oUthH6Xb
Panthers vs. Falcons Previews & Analysis
Panthers vs. Falcons Props
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Panthers vs. Falcons Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Falcons are 2-2 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Falcons' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Falcons' 5 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Falcons vs. Panthers Injury Updates
Falcons Injuries
- Jamal AgnewWR
Agnew is out with groin
Out
- Drake LondonWR
London is out with knee
Out
- DeMarcco HellamsS
Hellams is out with hamstring
Out
- Michael PenixQB
Penix is out with knee
Out
- Jack NelsonOL
Nelson is out with calf
Out
Panthers Injuries
- David MooreWR
Moore is out with elbow
Out
- Damarri MathisCB
Mathis is out with knee
Out
Team Stats
Panthers vs. Falcons Odds Comparison
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Panthers at Falcons Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Panthers 6-5 | o19.5-125 | u19.5-105 |
Falcons 3-7 | o23.5-130 | u23.5+100 |