Dolphins vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

There is a value opportunity on Kirk Cousins's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.70 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 2.13. The model believes there is a 71% chance he records fewer than 1.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +105. (This play is good down to at least -164.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Dirty birds

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Median of 5 on the season and Dolphins will be the toughest matchup of the season in terms of tackle opps for LBs. Tends to rush the passer at a higher rate (sort of Luvu-esque) but Tua loves to get it out fast. Falcons should dominate TOP here as well which will help. Projecting him closer to 6.8 with a 62% chance to stay under 7.5

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

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Mike McDaniel said this week he wants to get Jaylen Wright more involved, but with McDaniel coaching for his job right now, that likely won’t come at the expense of De’Von Achane. If anything, it’ll come at Ollie Gordon’s expense. Gordon has been extremely inefficient, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and functioning mostly as a short-yardage and goal-line back, which rarely produces explosive runs. Even on early downs, he’s averaging 2.5 yards per attempt. If Wright sees additional touches, it’ll likely cut directly into Gordon’s limited workload. With books taking down Gordon’s yardage prop (if you have access to 12.5 or higher, pivot to his yardage prop), this is the best angle to attack. I’m projecting him for 3–3.5 carries and a median long rush around 5.5 yards, giving about a 60% chance he stays under 7.5.

But if the Falcons do win the game, it sure seems obvious how it would happen: Atlanta should run all over this team. Pick a defensive metric and the Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league, especially against the run. That could set up for a monster game for Bijan Robinson, but books have priced that into all of Bijan's props already, so I'm pivoting to Atlanta's other RB, Tyler Allgeier. If you could only see one player's stats and had to guess if Atlanta won or lost, Allgeier is probably the right pick. In 12 losses since the start of last season, Allgeier averages just 5.8 carries for 28.5 yards. In 11 wins during that stretch, those numbers nearly double to 11.3 carries for 46 YPG. That includes at least 32 yards in eight of the 11 wins (73%), whereas he only hit that number four times in a loss. Play Allgeier to go over 39.5 rushing yards at -114 (FanDuel) and place part of your bet on 50+ yards at +158. Allgeier hit that number in five of Atlanta's wins, almost half of them. You can parlay those with an Atlanta ML if you like, but it likely won't add much. I'm not looking to push too high on a yardage escalator here. Allgeier isn't great at breaking tackles or busting a long one; he tends to be more of a volume hammer to close out games, especially in big wins. Atlanta has five wins by 7+ since the start of last season, and Allgeier has at least 15 carries in three of them (and no others). If Atlanta covers the spread and wins big, Allgeier will likely see a heavy workload. Skip the spread and bet on 15+ carries at +850 instead (bet365). You can place part of that bet on a SGP with 15+ carries parlayed with Atlanta -7.5 at +1200 (bet365), if you like.

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/mVODhIbOJXb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/2IsFjc7LJXb

DK

THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.66 interceptions for Tua Tagovailoa compared to 0.96 interceptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 64% of the time, resulting in a 51% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $51.28. (This play is good down to at least -126.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz