The Carolina Panthers (5-5) and Atlanta Falcons (3-6) will meet in Week 11 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Falcons are 4-point favorites over the Panthers on the spread (Falcons -4), with an over/under of 41.5 total points. Atlanta is a -210 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Carolina is +175 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Panthers vs Falcons predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, November 16.
Panthers vs Falcons Prediction, Picks
- Panthers vs Falcons pick: Falcons First Half Spread -2 (-110)
My Falcons vs Panthers best bet is on Atlanta to cover the first half spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs Falcons Odds for NFL Week 11
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Preview
The NFC South as a whole is an enigma, and the team that has been the hardest to predict is the Panthers.
The Panthers enter this matchup at .500 on the season, following their last two games, which included a win over Green Bay and a loss to New Orleans.
To the Panthers' credit, they have done some things well that have propelled them to their current record, such as revitalizing their running game with Rico Dowdle and forcing stops in their own territory, as they rank sixth in opponent red-zone scoring rate.
Those two things alone have helped shorten games and keep them competitive, but their consistency is a question mark, especially when they are outmatched in other crucial areas, like they will be today.
On paper, the Panthers should be able to run the ball effectively against an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in yards per rush and 19th in EPA per rush.
However, we've seen the Falcons have success at home against run-heavy offenses, as they demonstrated against Buffalo.
It would not be surprising to see the Falcons force Bryce Young to beat them through the air.
Atlanta's pass rush has been excellent, ranking eighth in opponent completion percentage.
Young having success throwing against heavy boxes is no guarantee either.
As for the Falcons, they are a great team to buy low on.
They come into this matchup having dropped four straight, but they are getting healthier on the offensive side of the ball and should come out motivated at home.
For Atlanta, it all starts on the ground with Bijan Robinson, who should see plenty of work against a Carolina defense that ranks 20th in yards per rush.
Robinson's early down success will open things up for Michael Penix Jr. and company through the air.
Penix has had his inconsistencies, but he has consistently shown he will push the ball down the field, averaging 8.6 yards per completion at home this season.
The Panthers do not generate much of a pass rush and, as a result, have allowed more than their fair share of chunk plays.
Panthers vs Falcons Betting Predictions, Analysis
The spreads for this matchup are peculiar: the first-half line and the full-game line are very close.
While we have seen market support for the Panthers, the first-half line holding below a key number is indicative of the game script we can expect to see.
The Falcons are expected to come out strong at home, as they are overdue for a win and should succeed in multiple areas early on when the team is fresher.
Take Atlanta to cover the first half spread.
Panthers vs Falcons Best Bet
- Falcons 1H -2 (-110)
Panthers vs Falcons Betting Trends
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