Packers vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - January 21, 2024

Packers at 49ers

1:15 am • FOX

Green Bay Packers

0-1

21 - 24

San Francisco 49ers

0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Packers 0-1	+10	+10.5-110	o50.5-115	+375
49ers 0-1	u50.5	-10.5-110	u50.5-106	-500

Sunday 1:15 a.m.

January 21, 2024

Levi's StadiumSanta Clara

SF -130 (Live)

B.Purdy o0.5 Int (Live)+210

0.5u

SF -6 (2H)-115

1.15u

Over 24 (2H)-105

GB +290 (Live)

Under 52 (Live)-130

0.31u

D.Samuel First Touchdown Scorer Yes+750

0.25u

GB +410

0.5u

… nfl playoff system contrarian vs top seeded teams Overall: 35-42-0,45% (ROI:31%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:287%)

Over 24.5 (1H)-108

1.08u

Over 50.5-110

1.1u

K.Juszczyk Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1200

0.3u

J.Reed Anytime TD Scorer Yes+210

Under 51.5-136

0.74u

… outside unders postseason Overall: 80-52-2,61% (ROI:17%) Season:2-0-0,100% (ROI:91%) … contrarian unders playoffs Overall: 74-35-3,68% (ROI:31%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

SF -10-110

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

D.Samuel o58.5 Rec Yds-110

2.75u

SF -10.5-105

2.63u

Over 50.5-110

2.75u

GB +10.5-115

0.87u

L.Musgrave o19.5 Rec Yds-114

SF -10-105

GB +12-137

1.28u

69 With Dale Alternate spread via DK

D.Samuel o15.5 Rush Yds-110

1.1u

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/deebo-samuel-player-prop-nfl-playoffs-bet-for-packers-vs-49ers

SF o30.5 Team Total-115

Best Bet

C.McCaffrey o90.5 Rush Yds-110

Ryanpropz NFL Straight

Over 50.5-110

0.55u

SF -10-108

1.08u

G.Kittle Anytime TD Scorer+145

2.9u

Via Brian Matthews and @charliedisturco

J.Reed Anytime TD Scorer+220

@GDAWG5000

B.Purdy u0.5 Int-130

0.77u

@ChrisRaybon

J.Jennings u1.5 Recs-120

@The_Oddsmaker

SF -10-110

@SimonHunterNFL

A.Jones u16.5 Rush Att-125

1.25u

Read why: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-bet-aaron-jones-in-packers-49ers

SF -10-110

1.5u

Over 50.5-115

D.Samuel u16.5 Rush Yds-110

0.91u

SF -10-110

SF o30.5 Team Total-120

J.Jennings u1.5 Recs-120

1.2u

Over 50.5-110

Over 50.5-115

1.15u

SF -9.5-118

… fade teams that won as big underdogs Overall: 102-65-3,61% (ROI:20%) Season:4-3-1,57% (ROI:8%)

Over 50.5-110

1.1u

Under 51-112

0.89u

A.Jones u16.5 Rush Att-125

1.25u

Jones has smashed through this line the last 4 games with 20+, but all 4 were in games were the Packers completely controlled the gamescript. I don’t see that happening today versus SF. The 49ers play slow and methodical, and as a result, their opponents run the 7th fewest plays per game, and RBs only ran the ball 15 times per game (fewest in the NFL). Opposing RBs are under this line in 16/17 vs SF this season.

GB +6.5 (1H)-115

0.87u

Over 50.5-110

SF -9.5-112

1.12u

B.Purdy u0.5 Int-110

0.91u

No INTs in 67% of career starts, GB 3rd lowest INT rate in regular season before generous Dak last week.

Over 24.5 (1H)-110

0.5u

@The_Oddsmaker

C.Watson u2.5 Recs-154

0.32u

@The_Oddsmaker

Over 50.5-110

0.5u

@nick_giffen

D.Samuel 2+ TDs Yes+700

0.5u

@nick_giffen

J.Reed Anytime TD Scorer Yes+210

0.5u

@GDAWG5000

J.Love o1.5 Pass TDs-122

0.41u

@GDAWG5000

C.Watson u2.5 Recs-125

D.Samuel o80.5 Rush + Rec Yds-120

@nick_giffen

D.Samuel o80.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115

1.15u

@GreenDotDaily

Over 50-110

SF -9.5-110

0.5u

SF -10-110

1.1u

Executive Decision

SF -9.5-112

1.12u

Stuckey 3

D.Samuel 2+ TDs Yes+700

0.25u

GB +9.5-110

0.91u

GB +10-112

0.89u

E.Mitchell Anytime TD Scorer Yes+600

0.5u

Leaning into the blowout angle. He scored in W17 and W18. Looks fresh. Could see extra looks at the goalline to spell CMC if he gets banged up. Another angle is 2H Anytime TD at +1600 if Niners up big in 4Q.

J.Reed Anytime TD Scorer Yes+220

B.Purdy u30.5 Pass Att-124

GB +9.5-110

$100.00

T.Kraft u2.5 Recs-114

Over 50-110

1.1u

Tailing #LuckOver

Over 49.5-110

1.1u

#LuckRankings

C.Watson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+480

0.45u

Odds are much higher than the market and Watson made it out of Sunday’s game with Cowboys without furthering injuring his hamstring, so I’d be surprised if the Packers put any snap limits on him this weekend in a game where they’re 10 point underdogs. If he’s healthy, +480 is a lot of value in a game where the Packers should be passing much more.

Over 50-110

I've got this total at 51.8, but with 50 not being a massive key number, I'm okay plugging the over despite a small-ish edge. The Packers' defense isn't one I trust, and the 49ers should be able to move the ball on them. But I also have faith in the Packers' passing attack to put up points should they wind up in a negative game script, giving us a bit more faith in the over in a game with a large spread. Current wind speed projections in Santa Clara are at 8 miles per hour. I'd like that to come down a bit, but even if it sticks, this will still be a fine bet by my model.

GB +10-110

0.91u

Via @wheatonbrando - Hot Read!

SF -9.5-110

1.1u

J.Love Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1200

0.5u

J.Love Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1200

Wow. Just wow.

SF -9.5-110

1.1u

SF -9.5-112

SF -9.5-110

2.2u

Featured Insight
The Packers allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 14% of pass attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- T-3rd-best in NFL; the 49ers had pressured opposing QBs on 13.0% of passing plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- 2nd-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The 49ers have scored on 45% of their drives this season -- 2nd-best in NFL; the Packers defense has allowed scores on 39% of opponent drives this season -- T-7th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

49ers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
49ers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
49ers are 1-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of 49ers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of 49ers' 9 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
49ers	5-12	4-5	1-7	5-8	0-4
Packers	0-1	5-4	0-1	6-6	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
49ers	10-7	5-4	5-3	7-6	3-1
Packers	0-1	3-5-1	0-1	5-6-1	0-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
49ers	6-11	N/A	N/A	6-7	0-4
Packers	0-1	6-3	N/A	9-3	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 7th	LA	L 20-21	-5.5 L	O 40	LA -259
Dec 31st	@WAS	W 27-10	-14 W	U 48.5	SF -1124
Dec 26th	BAL	L 19-33	-6.5 L	O 47	BAL -312
Dec 17th	@ARI	W 45-29	-12.5 W	O 48	SF -769
Dec 10th	SEA	W 28-16	-15 L	U 44.5	SF -1050

Trevis Gipson
LB
Gipson is out with ankle
Out

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Packers

Total

49ers

330

Total Yards

356

Total Plays

5.3

Yards Per Play

5.6

Packers

Passing

49ers

194

YDS

252

21/34

Comps/Atts

23/39

5.706

YPA

6.125

2/2

TDs/INTs

1/0

0/0

Sacks/Yards

1/7

Packers

Rushing

49ers

136

Rush Yards

111

Attempts

4.857

YPC

4.625

TDs

Packers

Turnovers

49ers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Packers

Efficiency

49ers

2/5 40%

Redzone

1/1 100%

7/13 0%

3rd Down

10/16 0%

0/1 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Packers

First Downs

49ers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Packers

Misc

49ers

1/5

Penalties/Yards

6/83

30:19

Possession

29:41

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MatchupOverUnder
Packers 0-1	o19.5-118	u19.5-105
49ers 0-1	o30.5-122	u30.5+100

Packers vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - January 21, 2024

Packers at 49ers

Green Bay Packers

San Francisco 49ers

Packers at 49ers Odds

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Packers vs. 49ers Previews & Analysis

NFL Divisional Round Picks for Every Game, Every Team

Packers vs. 49ers: Raybon's Pick & Preview

NFL Divisional Round: How We're Live Betting Saturday's Games

Gallant's Anytime TD Bets for Packers-49ers

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Public

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Bets%

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