Lions vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - September 8, 2023

Ethan please for the love of god

Ramble POD

Big IP getting a fat TD

@GDAWG5000

Annual tail of Koerner opening season TNF prop. They move quick

Surgical Stream POD

Fortunately got this before the kelce news, forgot to track during the @TheFavoritesPodcast pod on Tuesday.

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Playable at 1u at o8.5 at +100 or better. One of my favorite NFL player prop markets to attack last season was combined tackles (solo tackles plus assists). And with a prime opportunity presenting itself in Week 1 of the 2023 campaign, I’m jumping on Nick Bolton over 7.5 combined tackles against the Lions. Bolton is coming off a stellar sophomore campaign in which he recorded 180 combined tackles, which ranked second in the NFL. He cleared this line in a ridiculous 15 of 17 regular season games. The Chiefs middle-linebacker hardly ever came off the field, playing at least 99% of defensive snaps in 17 of Kansas City’s 20 total games (including the playoffs). Even if Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo does decide to ease his star players into action in Week 1, it’s a perfect matchup for Bolton to rack up the tackles when he’s on the field. The Lions allowed the 10th most combined tackles to opponents per game last season. With a balanced offensive attack, including both the run game and short-to-intermediate passes, Bolton should be around the ball a ton, come Thursday night. In fact, last season, Jared Goff ranked 32nd out of 40 in deep ball attempts (as a percentage of total throws, per Pro Football Focus). Favoring more of the underneath routes, this should allow for Bolton to do what he does best, and swarm the ball. It’s a softer line with a sky-high hit rate from last season, likely because of a potentially scaled-back Week 1 workload. But even so, Bolton will be leading the charge for the defending Super Bowl Champs, and I have him at an even 10 combined tackles against the Lions.

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Okay @wheatonbrando

KC breaking in two new Ts and new OC, now the Kelce injury, this offense may need some time. Primetime unders are 125–84–3 (60%) the last four years. Jared Goff is 14–9 (61%) to the under with a line of 51 or higher, and Thursday night games are 19–8–1 (70%) to the under with a line over 51.

Already had 0.5 units on lookahead, grabbing other 0.5 now because i see some books moving to 5.5 with Kelce injury news.

Bet at DraftKings. Vital for the Chiefs passing game and scored 9 receiving TDs in 2022. Outsnapped Pacheco from W13-18 when he scored 8 TD and had average ATD odds at +165 in that stretch. Combined for 35 RZ touches in 2022 (20 rushes, 15 targets). Would also consider for 2TD.

DK Happy Hour Boost

Posted/tweeted earlier - just correcting to the right line. First play of the season… an over on a rookie… here we go… Here’s what we know: the Lions used the 12th pick on Gibbs (and apparently were going to take him at 6 had they not traded down). They are clearly enamored by Gibbs, and drafted him to be a focal point of the offense. D’Andre Swift is gone, and the receiver core is weak. Outside of Amon Ra St Brown, there are a lot of question marks. This is a lions offense that supplied RBs with a 20% target share and 15% yard share in 2022. I have it as a tick higher in 2023, given the current state of their pass catchers. And he gets an A+ matchup against the Chiefs in week 1. Not only do we know the obvious with KC being favorites and the Lions could/should find themselves in plenty of passing situations, but the Chiefs defense has been designed to stop the downfield throws to receivers for years. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense have allowed top 5 production (both targets and yards) to RBs in each of the last 4 seasons. Last season, the Chiefs allowed 13 RBs to eclipse this total in 17 regular season games. There isn’t a significant change in pass defense personnel that suggests the defensive philosophy will flip. Yes, David Montgomery exists, but he profiles to take the Jamaal Williams role (and in my opinion, not 100% of that role). It’s going to be a time share, but Gibbs is Campbell and GM Brad Holmes’ guy - I think there is public worry about the timeshare because of Swift’s utilization last season. But Swift was not drafted by this regime, and there wasn’t nearly as much capital invested in him (big difference between the 12th pick and a high second rounder). I see him on the field for 25+ pass routes (both Swift and Williams were at better than 1.3 yards per route run last season). And then OC Ben Johnson makes the comments about using Gibbs “in ways people don’t quite think we might”. Cryptic, but I’m going to take a leap of faith and figure that’s more snaps for Gibbs in the slot. Give me the rookie in week 1.

Pointsbet

Sure, I love Dan Campbell. But only one QB is most profitable in Week 1 the past 20 yrs and overall the past 5: Jared Goff. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.380201921&selectionId[0]=50193&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Bet at Bet365. Love his chances to score vs Defense that gave up 2nd-most catches/receiving yards to RB in 2022. Especially if Chris Jones doesn’t play. Would still bet this down to +200.

Write-up on entire Week 1 slate coming soon