Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - February 12, 2023

This was the hedge

Little Pat insurance never hurt anybody

From pod and writeup

@Stuckey2

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

Scored in 8 of his last 9 postseason games and is chalk #WhatCouldGoWrong?

Tailing @TurveyBets

Tailing @SimonHunterNFL HT/FT still my best bet. Bet now: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361464180&selectionId%5B0%5D=50186&marketId%5B1%5D=42.360403560&selectionId%5B1%5D=50186&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Small edge on PHI, wouldn't trigger a bet typically but fuck it it's the Super Bowl. My breakdown: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-vs-philadelphia-eagles-odds-pick-super-bowl

DK Boost

Dk boost

Looking for Over 48.5 Live

DK: see my full analysis for this in my SB total piece

TD Fortson. 29% of career receptions TDs. 38% of targets this year inside the 10.

At DK: Finally moved past key number of 51

As heard on Convince Me from @SimonHunterNFL

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

Great matchup vs KC

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

Bet at FanDuel. Tailing @nick_giffen with his top bet for The Touchdown Show.

Am I really going to not take Mahomes as an underdog?

Using this to remind you to play THE MOST FUN SB BET YOU CAN MAKE: Both Travis & Jason Kelce to score a TD +20000 at FD Travis, duh. But Jason? Sirianni talked in Oct about getting Jason eligible and getting him a fullback dive or screen to use his nimbleness. Travis just brought up a Jason TD a month ago today on the Kelce bros pod. Where there's smoke there's fire...?? Use this link to bet it right now at FanDuel: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361395764&selectionId%5B0%5D=52217715&shareBetId=10004_-443033149

Writeup: https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/eagles-super-bowl-same-game-parlay/embed

Expect a game won in the trenches: advantage Philly. Eagles #1 pressure rate, #1 sack rate this century, biggest matchup of SB is Philly edge rushers vs beatable Chiefs tackles, esp with Mahomes ankle that will only get worse during the game. Other side, Eagles best OL in NFL, #1 rushing DVOA, EPA, explosives, by a mile. Chiefs run D bad or worse in most metrics. This is the big mismatch in the game and an Eagles script is the same as always: get a lead early, run the ball and bleed the clock late. Chiefs have the MVP. Eagles have the edge in run game, receivers, OL, pass rush, secondary, in game coaching. Team > individual. Note: spread not my preferred way to play. SB best bet is HT/FT double +160. Bet that here: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361464180&selectionId%5B0%5D=50186&marketId%5B1%5D=42.360403560&selectionId%5B1%5D=50186&shareBetId=10023_-443033149 Fly Eagles Fly 🦅 Read my full case: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/eagles-vs-chiefs-picks-prediction?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

FanDuel AZ Free Bet

Analysis on @TheTDShow Sunday at 11am ET Bet at DK

Under 5.5 in 12 of 19 (63%)

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

3 or fewer in 16 of 19g (84.2%). True u3.5 odds would be -533 at that rate. (2 or fewer in 11 of 19g (57.8%); true u2.5 odds would be -124.)

Split with receptions

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

Luke Swain / VegasRefund best bet

Under in 4/L5, and gets a brutal matchup against the Eagles secondary (especially since he’s been playing more on the outside of late - and I think that continues on Sunday). Only one catch of 20+ air yards this season (2 targets), and only 3 of his 29 total targets between 10 and 17 air yards came in the last 5 games. MVS, Toney, Kelce, Moore, Watson are all bigger threats to see deep shots, and the eagles allowed the 6th lowest aDOT as is. And I’m not too concerned about JuJu’s YAC potential, since the matchups should make it tough for him to gain significant separation.

Raybon 3

Bet at FanDuel. This is a volume play and reflective of his receptions line. O1.5 receptions is -135 to -150. If he gets at least 2 receptions, high probability this goes over. In 16 career games when he’s had 2+ catches, he’s had at least 12 yards in 13 of them. One of those games was vs Chiefs last season. Chiefs ranked last in receptions to RB and 4th worst in yards allowed. Both Mixon and Etienne went over this mark. If you want to tail at FanDuel, use QuickSlip below and save some time: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361811849&selectionId%5B0%5D=40915793&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

#brandonanderson @wheatonbrando

Bet at Bet365. May have high ADOT but low volume. Only averaged 2 targets and 1 catch per game. Went under this number in 12/18 games this season and 6/10 games with MeCole Hardman out of lineup. Eagles allowed 4th-fewest yards to WR this season. JuJu and Toney both practicing and expected to play. My man @The_Oddsmaker has Watson projected at 12 yards. He could go over this mark in one catch but with such little volume, its more likely he isnt a factor in this game.

Raybon convinced me when he came on the favorites. Quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.361733998&selectionId[0]=11890079&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

#simonhunter @SimonHunterNFL

Bet at BetMGM. Doesn’t correlate with my Mahomes Anytime TD bet at all but this is kind of a hedge and bet on Eagles defense. Here’s some stats on why I’m betting this: -Since start of 2021 season, Chiefs have lost 9 games. Mahomes threw INT in 7 of them. -4 INT in 2 career Super Bowls. -Mahomes has thrown INT in 53% of all games since start of 2021 (25 INT total) -Eagles were 3rd in NFL with 17 INT.

Via @Stuckey2

DraftKings. Cleared in 14/18 full games, and the Eagles have allowed a primarily outside cornerback to hit this in 7/L8. He’s cleared concussion protocol, so I’m expecting his full allotment of snaps (and this line/price justifies the risk). He lead the NFL in tackles in both the run game and pass game amongst CBs - and he should be heavily involved in coverage against both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Eagles allowed the 8th most tackles in the regular season.

Under 11.5 long in 12 of 19 (64%).

@nick_giffen

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker also bet T. Townsend first punt o46.5 yards vs eagles and miles sanders to lead game in rush yards +175

Tailing @nick_giffen here. Limited to .96 by Hard Rock.

#stuckey @Stuckey2

Bet at FanDuel. 5 rush TD in 13 career playoff games. Eagles were 29th in rush yards allowed to QBs and 31st in rush yards per carry during regular season. I believe Mahomes ankle will be healthy enough to scramble in RZ which makes this mispriced. Should be +400. If you have FanDuel and want to tail, use QuickSlip and save yourself some time: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361501729&selectionId%5B0%5D=11054744&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Under 9.5 in 15-of-19g (79%). Only 5-of-88 carries (5.7%) have gone for 10+. Value on u9.5 to -170, u8.5 to -119.

See my analysis on Action Island Have 60% under, bet to about -140 FanDuel QuickSlip: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId[0]=42.361624104&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/super-bowl-props-chiefs-vs-eagles-picks-patrick-mahomes-jalen-hurts?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

#anthonydabbundo @AnthonyDabbundo

DK

Bet at Bet365. Chiefs gave up 2nd most TD to slot. 9 TD to TE. He below +200 everywhere else. Scored vs Chiefs when Eagles hosted them in W4 in 2021.

I've got a downgrade on the Chiefs' side of things for both their WR health and Mahomes' health (primarily for its impact on the rushing attack). Even with that, both my old and my new model have the Chiefs as at least slight favorites here. Given the way this market moved overnight, I don't think we'll see this get a ton longer than +110, especially if we get positive news on the health of the Chiefs' WRs. The Eagles are now the best team in the NFC by my numbers, so they're the team most likely to put up a good fight here. They could easily win it, too. But I do think the Chiefs are undervalued despite how much I respect Philadelphia, pushing me to take the moneyline now just in case we see more movement like we saw overnight.

Why is Pat a dog

Circa: Are you joking with this line? Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as underdog.

Coming back on Eagles +1. Not expecting Chiefs +3 longer than 30 seconds in the market.

First SB bet following the NFL Championship games.

What the fuck is going on????

FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360403563&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Lookahead line at Westgate was Eagles -1; 49. Will add or get out leading up to kickoff

Just getting best of number. May buy out as week goes on. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360403561&selectionId[0]=50186&shareBetId=10023_-443033149