Dolphins vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2025

Tet McMillan ⬆️ 53.5 Receiving Yards (-120 @ BetMGM)(CAR) Hopefully some of y'all jumped on the early line with me. It's up to 63.5 at MGM as of today. I'd still take it in the low 60's. Tet is averaging about 70 receiving yards per game and I'm not sure that we've seen what he's fully capable of yet. His underlying stats look even more promising, with a alpha target share (22%), a 39.5% air yardage share and 34.3% of the team's total receiving yardage. The catch rate is not where we want it to be (54.5%), but that should have some positive regression as the season continues. He's averaging an excellent 15.44 yards per reception and 6.44 yards after the catch per reception. He faces a Dolphins team that is very vulnerable to through the air. They've only faced two teams with a clear alpha and here is how they've done against MIA: Garrett Wilson: 6 recs on 8 targets for 82 yards and a TD Michael Pittman: 6 on 8 for 80 and a TD The Panthers will be without their lead back today and are always finding themselves in a negative game script these days. There are plenty of reasons to throw here and Tet should be one of the benefactors.

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Bryce Young saved my life

THE BLITZ is forecasting 4.93 rush attempts for Ollie Gordon II compared to 6.89 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 65% of the time, resulting in a 36% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $36.23. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

I’ve been waiting for more books to post Tremayne props, but locking this one in now. He didn’t make an impact with Washington as an undrafted rookie, but has looked solid for Carolina in year two. With David Moore on IR, Tremayne stepped into his role last week and ran a route on 89% of dropbacks. This week Xavier Legette returns and Jimmy Horn is expected to debut, so Tremayne’s routes could scale back. A conservative projection would be around 40% of dropbacks, which gives him about a coin flip to catch 2+ passes. But the range of outcomes is wide.. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s back up closer to 60%. He’s also been schemed looks with a 20% 1st read rate and I’m guessing the team wants to see what they have in him over Renfrow before Jalen Coker returns next week (potentially) My conservative projection has him closer to 15.5 yards, and I’d still take him at that number. At 12.5, I like the value and the upside.

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Dolphins-Panthers looks like an easy cross-off between two bad teams at first, but I'm wondering if the Dolphins may be able to score here. Miami is somehow favored for a third time in four games, and even crazier, that's probably right. Mike McDaniel's offense is still pretty good at moving the ball and scoring points, especially against bad defenses — and that's still what the Panthers are. Carolina had a goofy shutout against Atlanta, but the Panthers have allowed at least 22 points in all but two games since the start of last season. Tua Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins to at least 23 points in nine of his last 13 starts. That all tempted me toward a Dolphins team total over 22.5, but I don't need it. It's a short week for Miami adjusting to life without Tyreek Hill and all that lost gravity, and Tagovailoa has been poor against the zone, which Carolina plays heavy amounts of. But if we're right about Miami scoring, when the Dolphins do play well, they typically score in droves. Miami has scored at least 22 points in 16 of 18 wins since the start of 2023 — but the Dolphins are also averaging 32.4 PPG in those wins. And in all those Carolina games allowing at least 22 points since the start of last season, the Panthers are averaging 32.2 PPG given up. Forget the median outcome; the Dolphins might just no show. If Miami does score, I think they score a bunch. Let's take a ride on Dolphins over 32.5 points at +455 (DraftKings), right at those two stats we just noted. And if Miami does score, how about a first career touchdown for tight end Julian Hill? The Panthers allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends last season, most of any team, and they've already allowed TDs this season to Hunter Long and Hunter Henry. And what's really interesting is the list of guys scoring on Carolina — guys like Foster Moreau (twice), Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins, Noah Gray (twice), Payne Durham, and now Hunter Long. These aren't star tight ends, nor even TE1s always. These are blocking tight ends, stealing unexpected scores. Darren Waller is the story right now after making his Miami debut with two TDs on Monday night, but he played only 16 snaps and he'll have the defense's attention now. Julian Hill played 41 of 58 snaps, and he's the blocking tight end so Miami needs him out there with this offensive line. Hill has only 20 career receptions, including only two in four games this season. We're probably going to get one shot at this, if that! But that's why it's +1100 at BetMGM. Let's have some fun!

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Mgm

Had the under for the Dolphins game last night, which didn't go great, but going back to the well here. No Tyreek Hill should lead to a less explosive, less efficient offense in the long run.