Panthers vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Rosa gang

@braydenhenry

Nice buy-low on Tet after his career-worst 3/48/0 in a 30–0 game where Carolina barely needed to throw. As 5.5-point road dogs, they should be pushed into a more pass-heavy script. The Bryce–Tet chemistry keeps ticking up each week, and I expect that to continue as the season goes. Christian Gonzalez should be back and could shadow. The two go way back to Arizona vs. Oregon. I actually waited for Gonzalez to be ruled in and the number dipped to 62.5, which I wanted. New England plays man at a high rate (7th most, likely higher with Gonzalez active) and Tet has crushed man, leading all qualified WRs at 5.88 YPRR vs man. Gonzalez may break up a couple, but Bryce has been more willing to give Tet chances, and they have just missed on a few big ones. He is also excellent after the catch for an X receiver. I have this closer to 69.5 yards with about 58% to clear 62.5. Worth a small ladder sprinkle: 100+ yards at +351 (DK); I price that closer to +300.

There is a value opportunity on Rhamondre Stevenson's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.65 receptions, while sportsbooks implies 2.34. The model believes there is a 55% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +155. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

TreVeyon Henderson over 14.5 rec yds (-125 at BetMGM, -120 at Hard Rock) Could be in line for an increase in snaps after both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson had fumbles last week Henderson has the highest targets per route run (TPRR) on the Patriots when Drake Maye has a clean pocket, and faces a CAR defense that's by far last in pressure rate this year Henderson also has the second-highest TPRR on the Patriots against Cover 3, of which CAR plays 2nd most in the NFL In 2 games against other Cover 3-heavy teams (Wk 1 vs LV and Wk 3 vs PIT), Henderson has 9 catches on 9 targets for 43 yards, an average of 4.5 and 21.5 yds per game Yes, NE is more likely to be in a run-heavy script here, but even accounting for that, the low pressure and high Cover 3 should help his target share on those pass attempts CAR last year allowed 8.2 yards per catch to RBs, and this year 6.9, which is bottom half, so he should get there on 3 catches, and could even get there on 2.5 Projecting a median closer to 19.5 rec yds ... each yard is worth around 2.75%, so over 14.5 -120 at HR or -125 at MGM is better than over 15.5 -116 at DK or over 16.5 -114 at FD, but all three are still value by my numbers.

Played 97% of snaps with Legette out in W3 and he out again in W4. Panthers also missing Hubbard and Sanders so Moore should see “more” targets this week. And if CB Christian Gonzalez plays, he’ll likely shadow Tet McMillan.

@Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/FqsJZ7B4YWb

NFL INT Picks - W4

@sundaysixpack @Stuckey2 2 https://myaction.app/JNv2zeOUXWb

@Stuckey2 2 https://myaction.app/kzy8ZyeUXWb

Drake Maye but wearing a durag and smoking a blunt

I have the Panthers rated higher than the Pats, I feel a moral obligation to bet them at 2-1 odds.

Have the Patriots favored by less than a field goal. Panthers have been more fine than abysmal, so 5.5 is a big number.

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