Colts vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - October 6, 2024

Medium pick for the TD show

🐆🚀🌕 Betting Slip: https://x.com/vegasismybitchh/status/1842970066578718805?s=46

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Colts' offense faces challenges without Jonathan Taylor, their key rusher. With Taylor out, the Colts become one-dimensional, relying on inconsistent QB play, ranking 21st in passing yards. Defensively, the Colts struggle against the run (165 yards/game). Jacksonville’s strong rush defense and history (14-2-2 ATS vs. Colts) give them an edge, especially with Trevor Lawrence at QB and the Colts’ weak pass defense.

@TheBMatt

@nick_giffen

Tailing @shadybiev

This is the only way I’ll back JAX today

#ProSystem Road conference dogs low total Overall: 344-414-2,45% (ROI:19%) Season:3-3-0,50% (ROI:30%) Early season divisional dogs Overall: 106-97-1,52% (ROI:28%) Season:1-6-0,14% (ROI:-69%)

Targeting Colts WRs while Flacco is under center and Jonathan Taylor is out sounds attractive.

Meant for this to be a 3 unit

🔬 BTJ is set to go off vs the Colts predictable defense who has given up 3 games already with 100+ yards receivers & a perimeter wr has covered 60+ yards in all 4 games. 🔬Trevor Lawerence has played his best (albeit still basically league average) vs cover 3 which the colts run 43% of the time - it wouldn’t be surprising to see BTJ get to 100 yards for his first time in this game

Collab w/ @ThePropfessor_ 🤝

We’re super bullish on Thomas moving forward and in this nice matchup against the Colts. With Flacco on the other side this could actually turn into a shootout, but we wouldn’t need that for Thomas to get to 54. The coaches have heaped praise on Thomas during his first four games as a pro, and stated plainly his opportunities will increase. That’s easy to believe watching the game footage, and the opportunity stats in the box score related to routes and targets tell a similarly bullish story. The arrow goes up from here.

Jags starting to put it together offensively and they now get one of the worst secondarys in all of football. Jags coming home after 2 tough road opponents and an 0-4 start, this has a T-Law masterclass written all over it. Colts run zone coverage at the 3rd highest rate which Lawrence thrived against last year. Colt’s pass rush is banged up along with their 2 best corners which on return he should have all day to pick them apart with the solid WR core that they have.

Raybon 3

Going right back to picking on this Indianapolis pass defense after nailing the George Pickens ladder in Week 4. Pickens (7 catches for 113 yards) is the latest in a growing list of single-high safety killers to torch this team, joining Nico Collins (6 catches for 117 yards) and D.J. Moore (8 catches for 78 yards). The Colts played Cover 3 (one-high safety) at a hefty 47.5% rate against Pittsburgh, which even more than they usually do (43.1% on the season). Wouldn't expect Gus Bradley and company to switch things up this week. Thomas is ascending. He's earned 9 targets in each of the past two weeks and had a career-high 6 catches in Week 4. Thomas has also torched single-high looks this season. Thomas ranks 15th among wide receivers in yards per route run against single-high safety coverage (minimum 20 routes). Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Nico Collins are at the top of the leaderboard. Thomas is tied with Chris Olave. This is a pretty good leaderboard to be on.

DraftKings

It's not fun to bet unders on Colts games with their frantic pace, but neither passing offense here sets the world on fire, and current wind speed projections are at 10 mph.