Colts vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - December 7, 2025

📚Player Profit 🔑 Jaguars ML +114 (Player Profit) 2u Jags rolling, at home to have a major advantage and lead in division, love that +money all day with a 1 leg Daniel jones on the other side

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Oluokun has bounced back after a down 2024 season, and his median this year has been 8.5 tackles. The Colts have been a below-average matchup for LBs, but I found another underlying factor that supports why I’m showing value on the under here. Oluokun has recorded a tackle on 25.0% of his run defense snaps against runs outside the tackles this season, tied for the highest rate among LBs. On runs between the tackles, he has made a tackle on just 13.9% of his run defense snaps, the 5th-lowest rate among inside LBs. The Jags have seen 45% of opponents’ runs go inside the tackles, which is right around league average. However, Jonathan Taylor runs inside the tackles on 54% of his attempts, and the Colts as a team run inside on 53% of their attempts, the 7th-highest rate in the league. I looked at how many tackles Oluokun racked up versus how often opponents run inside, and the correlation is strong. In the 5 games where he faced a team that runs outside at a 53%+ rate, he averaged 9.2 tackles. In the 5 games against teams that run inside 53%+ of the time, he’s averaged 6.8 tackles, and the Colts fit into that latter bucket. I’m projecting him closer to 7.9 tackles here with around a 60% chance to stay under 8.5.

THE BLITZ is forecasting 2.44 receptions for Jonathan Taylor compared to 3.19 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 59% of the time, resulting in a 28% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $27.83. This play is good down to at least -106. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

7+ ladder ... wasnt working tracking it as 7+ alt rec so just doing it at over 6.5 ... same thing

This is a huge game in the AFC South, and I don't have a great feel for which team will come out on top. I don't trust either team right now, but the home team has won 14 of 15 in this rivalry, and the Colts have only covered three of the last 20 meetings. It should be a good game for tight ends both ways, since both defenses rank top-four in yards allowed to TEs. Tyler Warren is fading a bit from his hot start to just 49 YPG over the last five, but Jacksonville's Brenton Strange should be in line for another good game. Indianapolis ranks bottom 10 in DVOA defending tight ends. The Colts are top-five in fantasy points allowed at the position and have allowed at least 34 yards to a tight end 10 times already this season. Who would have believed when the season started that it would be Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange, not Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., leading the way for a Jaguars playoff contender? Strange has really had a breakout season, though. He averaged 4.8 catches for 46 yards on six targets a game over the first four games before missing a chunk of time hurt, but he's picked up right where he left off since returning at 4.0 receptions for 69 yards a game on five targets these last two outings. Bet Strange to go over 39.5 receiving yards (BetMGM). He's gone over that in five of six healthy games, hilariously all of them except the easiest spot on the schedule, against the Bengals. He's also had 59+ yards in half of his healthy games, so place part of your bet on 60+ yards at +240 (bet365).

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Jags trending up, Colts trending down. Also, Indy hasn’t won in Jacksonville since Blake Bortles was quarterbacking the team. 2014 to be specific.

Windy unders, neither team made postseason Overall: 314-202-4,61% (ROI:18%) Season:3-4-0,43% (ROI:-16%) Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 262-164-10,62% (ROI:19%) Season:7-1-0,88% (ROI:67%) Divisional Totals Early or Late in Szn Overall: 292-178-9,62% (ROI:20%) Season:15-6-0,71% (ROI:37%)