Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 14 on Sunday, December 7.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 14 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 14.
NFL Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Commanders vs Vikings |
| Dolphins vs Jets |
| Titans vs Browns |
| Steelers vs Ravens |
| Seahawks vs Falcons |
| Colts vs Jaguars |
| Saints vs Buccaneers |
| Bengals vs Bills |
| Broncos vs Raiders |
| Bears vs Packers |
| Rams vs Cardinals |
Commanders vs. Vikings
I know we tend to think low of the Vikings because their offense is in shambles, but their defense hasn’t been terrible and only have allowed one passing TD over the last four games.
I’m not saying to avoid Commanders' pass-catchers, but the matchup and odds better be worth it, even with Jayden Daniels returning from injury.
The Vikings tend to play a lot of zone and the highest rate of two-high safety in the NFL, while also ranking bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the deep pass.
I know WR Deebo Samuel technically has the best receiver metrics against zone and two-high, but I think WR Terry McLaurin is the better value at +220 this week.
He’s easily the Commanders’ No. 1 deep threat, and he’s scored in each of his last two games against pretty tough matchups in the Broncos and Chiefs.
I’m fairly certain I’ve lost my Vikings TD bets in each week with JJ McCarthy at QB, and I thought QB Max Brosmer might be a spark.
Man, was I ever wrong about that.
Part of the reason why I’d keep going back is you’d be able to get WR Justin Jefferson at +250 or Jordan Addison at +425, but with both listed under +250, I’m not interested in waiting around any longer to see if the Vikings' passing offense will figure it out.
Until we see some progress or way better TD odds, I’ll be passing on Vikings TD scorers for the foreseeable future.
Verdict: Terry McLaurin +220 | Pass On Vikings
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Dolphins vs. Jets
If “Pop Star,” aka Dolphins TE Darren Waller is back healthy, we bet him to score at +300.
He only saw three targets in his return to the lineup, but at least one was an end zone target.
As a result, he ranks second on the Dolphins with five end zone targets with four TDs in just four games, giving the Dolphins another receiving option after WR Tyreek Hill went down.
The Jets are 26th in touchdowns allowed to TE this season (7), while ranking 31st in defensive DVOA against the position.
Last week, we hit on Jets WR Adonai Mitchell at +750, and he caught his first career TD against the Falcons, who play a lot of zone and single-high safety.
That was good for Mitchell, since he’s historically thrived against single-high, but this week against the Dolphins, the Jets will likely see more two-safety looks.
If that’s the case, we pivot back to WR John Metchie at +350.
Although he didn’t score in Week 13, he did see eight targets with one in the red zone, which is encouraging because he had scored a TD in the previous two games.
Another reason why I like Metchie here is the Dolphins are 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass and play a lot of two-high safety, which Metchie has the better receiver metrics against than Mitchell.
I think we can swap these two each based on the matchup, and with Mitchell down to +250 now because he scored last week, I’ll just take the WR with the better matchup and higher odds.
Verdict: Darren Waller +300 | John Metchie +350
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Titans vs. Browns
This game has a total hovering around 34 and has been dropping all week. I’m not digging it at all for touchdowns, but this is who I’d choose if I had to.
If I’m betting any Brown this week, it’s rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. at +350. He has scored three TDs this season, and QB Shedeur Sanders has looked for him the most in his two starts this year.
The Browns might not be able to push the ball downfield much against a Titans defense that plays a higher rate of zone and two-high safety, which lends itself to Fannin, who has easily been the team’s top target in the red zone against those defensive looks, regardless of who is at quarterback.
For the Titans, I’m eying TE Gunnar Helm this week.
He’s really seen his role increase over the last three games, out-snapping TE1 Chig Okonkwo, while seeing 17 targets in that span.
He has also seen a higher target rate against man coverage and single-high safety, which the Browns play both at the highest rate in the NFL.
With scoring likely being scarce in this matchup, I’d rather take long shots in a game that might see two touchdowns, max.
For what it’s worth, Helm caught his lone TD this season against man defense earlier this season.
Verdict: Harold Fannin +350 | Gunnar Helm +600
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Steelers vs. Ravens
I really hope this isn’t a classic AFC North game where both teams fail to score 20 points and it’s just a defensive slugfest.
I’m rooting for points in this game, and while I don’t expect a shootout, I do like the chances of some tight end touchdowns in this one.
For the Ravens, we always start the conversation with TE Mark Andrews because, not only is he the top red zone receiving threat for Baltimore, he also tends to fare well against the coverages the Steelers like to roll with.
Pittsburgh’s defense typically plays a lot of man coverage and single-high safety, and in two games last year against the Ravens, the Steelers played those coverages at nearly an 80% rate.
When the Ravens face a team that uses those coverages, Andrews tends to see a higher target rate, while leading Baltimore with three TDs against them.
This will be my first time betting on Steelers TE Darnell Washington all season to score a touchdown.
Part of it was just not believing the hype (only two career TDs in 46 games), but another was because of the TE trio now in Pittsburgh where picking which TE is going to find the end zone each week is like throwing darts.
This time, I think it’s Washington because the matchup fits better for his output.
The Steelers have only faced two teams that rank in the top-10 in single-high safety rate this season in Cincinnati (twice) and Cleveland.
Well, those are the three games where he had the highest targets-per-route-run, and he also scored a TD against Cincy.
This season, he’s first on the Steelers in TPRR against man coverage, while also ranking second against single-high.
With his large frame and ability to make catches in traffic, this could be the week where the Steelers deploy him more as a pass-catcher in the end zone.
Verdict: Mark Andrews +190 | Darnell Washington +450
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Seahawks vs. Falcons
Both teams don’t really inspire confidence in touchdown props because they’re either force-feeding their stars with steamed TD odds or just don’t score at all.
I still think there’s slight value on one player on each side, and we start with Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed +300, who may have some familiarity with the Falcons defense.
Shaheed came over from the Saints, and my TD Show co-host Chris Raybon brought up a great point that having Seahawks offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak could work well for Shaheed due to their time together in New Orleans.
The Falcons allow the highest aDOT in the league to opposing pass-catchers, and Shaheed is a true deep threat in this offense.
Atlanta also plays the second-highest rate of single-high safety in the NFL, which is why we’ve been targeting deep-threat receivers like Alec Pierce or Adonai Mitchell, who both scored against them.
Shaheed may still end up just being a “Cardio King,” but if there’s any matchup where he could be effective, this is the one.
As for the Falcons, this is more of a bet that WR Drake London doesn’t play this weekend, and that means I want to target WR David Sills at +850.
He’s scored in back-to-back games with London out and has effectively moved into the WR2 role behind Darnell Mooney.
The Seahawks are one of the best teams at limiting the deep ball, and Sills has been a short-range target for the Falcons over the last two games with his longest catch going for nine yards.
You could always take a chance on Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts again because the Seahawks rank 29th in defensive DVOA against TEs, but I (along with anyone who has played fantasy football) have been burned too many times by the Pitts Promise.
Verdict: David Sills +850 | Rashid Shaheed +300
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Colts vs. Jaguars
Another Colts game, another decent matchup for rookie TE Tyler Warren.
We hit on Warren last week against the Texans, and I think he could be in line to score another TD against Jacksonville this week.
The Jaguars have allowed seven TDs to TEs this year and are bottom-five in targets, catches, and yards to the position.
Warren is still being priced as the fourth option in this offense at +190, when he was +230 last week against Houston.
He leads the team in red zone targets, and with the Jaguars playing zone and two-high safety at top-10 rates, he profiles as the pass-catcher with the best receiver metrics against those defenses.
Now, all Colts pass-catchers could just get muted if RB Jonathan Taylor has a huge day.
However, with Daniel Jones dealing with a fibula issue, Warren could also see short-yardage goal line work over Dimes as well, giving him other outs to find the end zone.
I know he’s played in the playoffs and we’ve seen the Jaguars have some big wins with him, but this might be the biggest game of QB Trevor Lawrence’s career.
With it being a three-way race for the AFC South title and the stakes of the game, I expect T-Law to be a bit more assertive on the rushing front. So, I like the upside near the goal line for a TD.
The odds are favorable at +425, and like most quarterbacks, his scramble rate jumps way up when seeing pressure, and the Colts rank top-five in pressure-rate per dropback.
What’s also encouraging is he’s third amongst all quarterbacks in carries inside the 5-yard line this season (7), and will get used in tush push scenarios in case there’s a DPI in the end zone.
I'm not saying it will play out that way, but Colts are bottom-five in DPI flags this year. So, if the game is close in the second half, look for T-Law to use that 6’5" frame and lean in for it.
Verdict: Trevor Lawrence +425 | Tyler Warren +200
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Saints vs. Buccaneers
If you bet a Bucs pass-catcher in Week 13, you likely got burned because only one Buccaneer caught a TD last week, and it was left tackle Tristin Wirfs.
I doubt we’ll see a big man touchdown again this week, but I do think rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is on track to score against the Saints.
He has the best metrics against zone defense and single-high safety, which the Saints play both at top-10 rates, while still running the most routes each week.
At +140, he’s the best value on the Bucs, but if you wanted to take a bit of a long shot, WR3 Tez Johnson at +375 is intriguing since he has five TDs this year.
However it’s a little concerning that with WR Chris Godwin back, Tez’s route participation dropped in half, but we didn’t see a TD odds bump.
In Week 13, he was listed at +400 to score, and now he’s +375, despite dropping in the pecking order? Nah, I’ll stick with Egbuka this week.
There’s not much left to say about the Saints offense with Tyler Shough at QB. The passing upside will be limited, and third down efficiency could be awful.
But, we're likely gonna have the Saints in a trailing game script with more pass attempts. So, if that’s the case, I’m running it back with TE Juwan Johnson at +350.
The Bucs' pass defense is weaker than the run defense, and outside of Chris Olave, Johnson may as well be the WR2 in this offense with his snap and route rates in line with Olave’s.
Tampa Bay has given up six TDs to TE this year, with one allowed in each of the last two games.
It’s pretty flimsy overall because I’m not a believer in Shough or the Saints' offense, but Johnson has the upside to score in any game given his physical frame and how much he plays on a weekly basis.
Verdict: Emeka Egbuka +150 | Juwan Johnson +350
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Bengals vs. Bills
Congratulations to the Bengals! They didn’t allow a TD to a TE last week.
A little bit of sarcasm here, as Ravens TE Isaiah Likely dropped the ball before crossing the goal line to break the streak of six straight games with a TD allowed to a TE by the Bengals' defense.
Still, the conversation has to start with the Bills TEs, and if TE Dalton Kincaid is back and healthy, this is who we want to score at +250.
Kincaid has four TDs this season, and the Bengals have sneakily been playing man coverage and single-high safety at top-5 rates in each of the last four games.
If they keep running those defenses against the Bills, that will be huge for Kincaid, who leads the team in targets-per-route-run against man and single-high.
As of Friday evening, Kincaid has practiced each day, but is still listed as questionable. If the Bills rule him out, we’ll replace him with TE Dawson Knox at +350.
The good news with QB Joe Burrow returning is the upside for the passing game should be even more elevated than it was with QB Joe Flacco.
That being said, we’re not going to see +200 prices for WR Ja’Marr Chase anytime soon. So, you either have to go with WR Tee Higgins at +185 or take a flier on a long shot TE like Drew Sample or Noah Fant.
I’d go with Higgins because he can be just as effective as Chase and we get better odds.
I fully expect the Bills to blanket Chase, which should give Higgins some 1-on-1 matchups on the outside.
Higgins kind of gets forgotten with Chase on the roster, but it’s worth noting that it’s Higgins who leads the Bengals in end zone targets and receiving TDs this season.
Verdict: Tee Higgins +185 | Dalton Kincaid +220 (if inactive, replace with Dawson Knox +350)
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Broncos vs. Raiders
This game was played just a few weeks ago with it being a disgusting primetime matchup for touchdown bets with only two combined scores.
Still, I’m running it back with two of my go-to guys when it comes to TD props, and that’s Raiders TE Brock Bowers and Broncos WR Troy Franklin.
For Bowers, it’s quite simple. The Broncos play man coverage at top-three rate, and he has absolutely crushed man defense this year with four of his five TDs scored against that coverage.
He also leads the Raiders in target share against man, and with TE2 Michael Mayer out again this week, Bowers should see the bulk of snaps and targets.
Now, keep in mind, QB Geno Smith may be running for his life, take a lot of sacks, and even throw some interceptions, but this is trending toward a trailing game script for the Raiders, and I want their best passing option in this matchup.
Another angle is to look at WR Tre Tucker at +500.
I get that the Broncos' pass defense is tough for WRs, but this is just too long of odds for a guy who’s basically the WR1 and has the highest route participation on the team.
As for Franklin, we might be getting a bit of a discount since he didn’t score last week, and both WR Courland Sutton and WR Patrick Bryant played more snaps than him, but I’m not discouraged.
The Commanders play more man coverage, while the Raiders are very zone-heavy. So, that helps Franklin, who has done well against zone and scored in the previous matchup.
Franklin still leads the team in red zone (14) and end zone targets (eight). So, I’m not going to overreact to one game script where he wasn’t targeted as much to the point where we completely stop betting him altogether.
Verdict: Brock Bowers +200 | Troy Franklin +230
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Bears vs. Packers
This is shaping up to be a DJ Moore game for the Bears. The veteran has been a bit of an afterthought with the emergence of WR Rome Odunze, but he’s dealing with a foot injury and will miss Week 14.
Moore will slide into the WR1 role, and facing the Packers, he might be in line for 10+ targets with Odunze out.
The Packers play zone at a top-seven rate, and Moore has a bit of a target bump against zone compared to man coverage, while also being a goal line threat with potential jet sweep runs out of the backfield.
The Packers are way more difficult to pinpoint for TD props these days because they have a bunch of receivers that are viable options to collect targets.
Both WR Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden are expected back to go along with WR Christian Watson and WR Romeo Doubs.
Let’s not overlook WR Dontayvion Wicks either, who scored twice against the Lions last week.
I think I’m just gonna take the advice of my colleague Sean Koerner and get out of the Packers WR business. Instead, I'm going to target TE Josh Whyle at +1200.
Whyle didn’t catch a pass last week, but was operating as the TE1 in the offense with the highest route participation of any Packers TE.
The Bears' passing defense has had some issues this year with 24 passing TDs allowed (ranked 28th), while ranking 22nd in defensive DVOA against TE.
It’s a long shot for a reason, but ever since TE Tucker Kraft went down, the Packers TEs have been in flux and it’s a perfect time to grab Whyle, who scored earlier this season against the Giants.
Verdict: DJ Moore +350 | Josh Whyle +1200
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Rams vs. Cardinals
I was initially leaning to Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr., but with him dealing with a leg injury, let’s just keep running Trey McBride back for a TD in this offense.
McBride has just been a monster for TD props since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB from Kyler Murray. He has scored eight TDs this season, with seven coming in the games with Brissett at QB, and he's scored in six of seven games overall with him under center.
McBride easily leads the Cardinals with 21 red zone targets, and while it’s definitely a tougher matchup against the Rams, they’ve had tough matchups before and Brissett keeps force-feeding him the ball.
At +150, this is the sweet spot, as he’d been +120 or lower in each of the last three games to score a touchdown.
I was able to make some profit from TE Colby Parkinson before his TD odds got completely nuked. Now, you’re lucky to get +225 for him, even though prior to this TD surge, he wasn’t really an end zone threat in his career.
If you want to bet him this week, that’s fine, but just know the value is mostly gone at this stage of the season.
Instead, let’s roll the dice on rookie TE Terrance Ferguson again.
The Cardinals rank bottom-5 in defensive DVOA against TEs and bottom-five against the deep ball. They also play man defense at top-10 rate.
This checks the boxes for Ferguson because he has a higher target rate against man and leads the team in aDOT. Almost every target he’s seen this season has been 20+ yards downfield.
So, at +1000, I’d rather take a long shot in the Rams' offense since the odds for the top three options of WR Davante Adams, WR Puka Nacua, and RB Kyren Williams have all been steamed.
That being said, if I had to pick one of those three, I’d go with Kyren since I’m seeing plus-money start to pop up at some spots, and he’s got five touchdowns over his last five games.
Verdict: Trey McBride +150 | Terrance Ferguson +1000
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