Super Bowl Octopus Odds: Jalen Hurts Cashes +1400 Prop in Chiefs vs Eagles
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts (No. 1).
UPDATE (9:55 p.m. ET)
Jalen Hurts became the first player to secure an "Octopus" in Super Bowl history in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 57, as he scored a rushing touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game up at 35.
The Octopus cashed wagers up to +1400 on the event occurring in Super Bowl 57.
Super Bowl Octopus Odds
DraftKings and BetRivers have a novelty prop bet live called "Will There Be an Octopus?" for Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs vs. Eagles.
No, it's not some sort of demented joke. An octopus occurs when the same player that scores a touchdown scores the ensuing two-point conversion.
There have only been 175 recorded instances in NFL history.
And lo and behold, the two quarterbacks for Super Bowl LVII — Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts — have two of those 175 recorded instances. And they both did so this season.
Mahomes got it done during a November game against the Titans, when he rushed for a 14-yard TD and then ran for the two-point conversion to tie the contest at 17 late in the fourth quarter.
Hurts executed the vaunted octopus in a December matchup against the Bears to put his team up 25-13. After a QB sneak for a tuddy, Hurts rushed it in for the two-pointer.
Those were two of just six octopuses (octopi?) this season, alongside Browns running back Nick Chubb, Panthers running back D'Onta Foreman, Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. and Texans tight end Jordan Atkins.
Does this mean there's value on the octopus in the Super Bowl?
Will There Be An Octopus for Chiefs vs. Eagles?
Betting odds of +1400 imply a probability of 6.67%. That's the break-even point — if you believe there's better than a 6.67% chance that an octopus will take place, then this bet offers value.
At a rudimentary level, here's a crack at the odds. Mahomes has executed an octopus in 1 out of 93 career starts, including the playoffs. That's a 1.1% rate.
Hurts has recorded an octopus in 1 out of 37 starts, including the playoffs, good for a 2.7% rate.
That means the odds of one OR the other happening is roughly 3.7%, according to that basic analysis. That implies betting odds of about +2700.
So, you're paying a roughly 3% premium for the "yes" market, but you're getting better odds solely because Mahomes and Hurts have done so before.
The raw odds for an octopus taking place in any given game is about 2.2%. There have been about 7,800 NFL games since 1994 — when the two-point conversion was implemented — and only 175 octopuses.
So, relative to the regular odds of occurrence, you're receiving a 1.5% edge.
Out of all the games to pull the trigger on this longshot prop, this might be the day to do so. But, remember, you're still paying a premium for the luxury of betting on a prop that only exists for the Super Bowl.
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