Browns vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - November 17, 2024

@TheBMatt

@nick_giffen

@convince_me

N. Chubb ⬆️ 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel) **1. Snap Share Trending Upward** Since returning from injury, Chubb’s workload has been inconsistent, with snap shares of 36%, 61%, and 35% over his first three games back. However, these fluctuations can be attributed to the game script and his ongoing recovery process. With each passing week, Chubb is expected to get more involved. Given the soft matchup against the Saints, this should be a spot where the Browns lean on him for 60%+ snap share, especially since this game script likely favors the run. **2. Saints’ Struggles Against the Run** The Saints have allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game this season at 113.3 yards. This trend isn't a one-off; their run defense has been porous and consistently exploitable. What stands out is their league-worst 5.17 yards per carry allowed. This points to a significant opportunity for Chubb to have efficient touches and potentially break off big runs. **3. Matchup Scheme Advantage** Chubb is primarily a zone runner, and the Saints have struggled immensely against zone-run concepts, allowing a 54.8% success rate this season, ranking 2nd highest success rate allowed in the league. The stars align for Nick Chubb in this spot. If not now, when?

+EV

🔬The saints have allowed the 4th most yards per game to wr’s and lost Lattimore to trade recently. They also run 2 high at one of the highest rates in the league. 🔬Moore is the leader in target share and targets per route run vs 2 high with Winston at QB. 🔬NO defense has allowed the 6th most catches and the 3rd most yards to the wr postion

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Hill had a season-high 59.3% route rate last week. He only earned 2 targets, but he caught both for 36 yards. New Orleans only threw it 25 times, as they surprisingly controlled the game against Atlanta. Hill is 3rd on the team in target share since returning from injury in Week 8. Chris Olave is ahead of him, and he's now on IR. Hill's route rate has jumped from 16% in his first 3 games to 45% in his last 3 games. Hill has run 46.9% of his routes from the slot and 30.6% from out wide in Weeks 8-10. All but 2 of his targets have come from those alignments in this stretch. Cleveland hasn't ceded a ton of volume to slot receivers, but the production has been good. The Browns have allowed the 12th-most yards per route run (YPPR) and the 8th-most yards per target (YPT) to the slot. Receivers lined up out wide have had similar success, ranking top 10 in both YPRR and YPT against Cleveland.

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