Bengals vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025

Prolly should stay away from

3.43% ev play to +103

100+ loading

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker Almost took it myself as an official play so lets roll

Projecting closer to 4.2 with around a 60% chance to clear 3.5

Joe Flacco over 38.5 Pass Att (-110 at BetMGM, HardRock, -118 at DK) This is a strong wind game, but I'm still showing value on Joe Flacco to clear 38.5 pass attempts for a handful of reasons. First, these two teams are Nos. 31 and 32 in time of possession, so there will simply be more overall play volume, and I'm projecting about an 8% increase in total play volume over each team's baseline. For Cincy's baseline, they have run 64.25 plays per game with Flacco in at QB in four games with the average in-game scoring margin in those four games of -2.7 points, which tracks pretty closely with a 5.5-point underdog as they are this weekend (they averaged to a 4.25-point underdog in those four games). Thus, an eight percent increase is around 69.5 plays expected, although i'll dock a few for it being a strong wind game, putting this game on the ground more. Flacco has thrown a pass attempt on 67.3% of total plays, so using that number as a similar underdog and docking it a full 4% for a super strong wind game on 66.5 total plays, and accounting for 2.5 sacks projected I'd get 39.5 passing attempts. But these are all worst case scenarios. I strictly docked him for 20+ mph wind games, but that includes the 30+ mph sustained wind games. Instead, if I limit the sustained winds between 18-23 mph, the pass rate only drops by about 1.3 attempts, or just under 2% instead of 4%, which would also increase the total plays back up to closer to 68 projected. Just making those small changes gets me to 42 projected pass attempts, and I'm still undercounting it because I'm not accounting for the fact that Flacco projects to be a bigger dog with a bigger average defecit than the four games he's played already as a Bengal. That leaves us plenty of wiggle room to stay over 38.5 pass attempts, and there's other factors in play here that help like projected explosiveness for the Steelers and their above average pace that work in the favor of the Bengals running more plays. Obviously if the Bengals get out to a lead this won't hit, but schedule-adjusted Expected Scores lean toward a Steelers cover. Even if the Steelers fall behind there's a case here because they'll go more no huddle and they throw at one of the highest rates while trailing, which would give the ball back to Cincy quicker (hopefully by them taking the lead back after a touchdown). I'd play this over 39.5 as well. tl;dr -- market is overreacting to wind

This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest. The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met. Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets. He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet). Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate. Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD. We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals. That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365). If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep. Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option. Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too. Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.

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