Bears vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025

Projection: -7.25. For more, check out the Fantasy Life game model.

There may be some value on the receptions prop for David Montgomery. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 2.68 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 2.18. The model believes there is a 45% chance he records at least 2.5 receptions, so there is value on the over at +180. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

Via @Wayne_Bets While he was relatively quiet in Week 1, I was highly encouraged by Rome Odunze’s role against the Vikings. He led the Bears in routes run and targets, and Ben Johnson moved him all over the formation. I loved seeing a 7.4-yard aDOT for Odunze - he ran a much more diverse route tree than we saw in his rookie season, and he’s great at winning over the middle of the field. Odunze was excellent against man coverage in his rookie season, posting a 71st percentile success rate against man and an 87th percentile success rate against press coverage, per Reception Perception. If Week 1 is any indication, the Lions are set to remain one of the most man-heavy defenses in the NFL. They led the league with a 52.2% man coverage rate in Week 1 after ranking first with a 45% rate last season per Fantasy Points Data. In a projected trailing game script, with the Bears installed as 6.5-point road underdogs, they will need to open up the offense more after leading for the entire game on Monday night. Johnson knows this Lions defense well, and he’ll have unique plays dialed up to take advantage of their lapses in coverage. Odunze is primed for a Year Two breakout, and this is where it starts.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb

I was high on Odunze entering the season, and he’s a clear buy-low WR heading into a potential Year 2 breakout in Ben Johnson’s scheme. He should also develop better chemistry with Caleb Williams, who is likely to improve in his own Year 2. Week 1 was a mixed bag. Odunze operated as the clear No. 1 in this new offense, leading the team with a 23% target share. Still, he and Caleb missed on a couple of throws, including one play that was clearly designed for Odunze but never got the ball because Caleb didn’t trust the read. Part of the issue came against Minnesota’s zone-heavy defense, which muted some of Odunze’s upside. Against man coverage, though, he showed exactly why I’m bullish. He ran only four man-coverage routes but drew three targets, and per FantasyPoints data, his 1.333 separation score ranked second-highest in Week 1. That lines up with his ability to consistently win vs. man. The Lions play man at one of the highest rates in the league, and that continued in Week 1 even with a new defensive coordinator. This is the perfect spot to buy low on Odunze, and his yardage prop is the way I want to attack it. I project his median closer to 53.5 yards and give him about a 60% chance to clear 45.5.

NFL INT Picks - W2

Grabbed this on Fri morning. Anything above +200 for me for Odunze.

This line started at Lions -4.5 on Sunday morning and has slowly but steadily climbed all week. I'm not certain it gets to +7, though, and six has become a key number these days too, so I'll grab Chicago +6.5 while it's there. So why has the line moved so much? Injuries and an overreaction to a national TV Monday Night Football game. The injuries, frankly, should be moving the line the other direction. It appears CB Jaylon Johnson and LB TJ Edwards will play for Chicago, two huge additions the team missed Monday, while Detroit actually has a number of unknowns with guys like CB Terrion Arnold, T Taylor Decker, and LB Jack Campbell somewhat up in the air and ongoing absences on the defensive line. As for Monday night, I wrote about not overreacting to that one. It's easy to forget now, but the Bears were debuting a brand new coaching staff and effectively a debut QB in Caleb Williams after a lost rookie season, and they were leading a top-10 14-win team 17-6 in dominant fashion through three quarters. That's good news, not bad! Ben Johnson made some mistakes as a head coach. He burned a bad challenge, and his decision to kick deep was questionable. But Johnson is still a huge asset as an offensive play caller, and the Bears had receivers open all night. He's also specifically calling plays for Chicago in this game and no longer Detroit! This is the spot we've waited for all summer, fading the Detroit brain drain and betting on the Chicago additions. Including DC Dennis Allen, Chicago has a top-three play calling duo, while Detroit's unknowns are bottom three until proven otherwise. Johnson knows exactly how to attack and surprise this Lions defense. I think these teams are relatively equal on talent but Chicago has taken steps to get ahead in the trenches and at coaching, so this is effectively playing our preseason position on both teams. Factoring those two items in, I make Chicago slightly better on both offense and defense, which means only Detroit's notable indoor homefield advantage is really in its favor. This is great spot to fade the Monday night overreaction with some Week 2 trends: Underdogs when both teams are 0-1 over the last two decades: 53-28-3 ATS (65%) Dogs of 3-to-7 points that failed to cover in Week 1: 41-17-2 ATS (71%) since 2014 Underdogs that lost Week 1 against an opponent that was a Week 1 underdog itself: 60-33-2 ATS (65%) I'm not ready to abandon Bears Island just because of one disaster fourth quarter. Give me Bears +6.5 and let's place a portion of the bet on Bears ML to win outright at +230 (both ESPN Bet). There's still value on the worst-to-first division too at +1300 (Caesars). Bear Down… but not out!

Have the Lions favored by 8 here as they return indoors at home to face a lesser foe than they had in Week 1.