One week of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and that means it's time for overreactions.
With only one week of data, everything seems so black and white! The good teams are great, the bad teams are awful, and it's hard to imagine anything ever changing. That means NFL Week 2 can be dangerous for bettors, but it can also present huge opportunity.
Let's get to my NFL Week 2 predictions, which include everything from spread picks, player props, parlays and even two Week 3 picks!
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation.
NFL Week 2 Predictions
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Bears vs Lions
This line started at Lions -4.5 on Sunday morning and has slowly — but steadily — climbed all week. I'm not certain it gets to +7, though, and six has become a key number these days so I'll grab Chicago +6.5 while it's there.
So why has the line moved so much? Injuries and an overreaction to a national TV Monday Night Football game.
The injuries, frankly, should be moving the line the other direction.
It appears CB Jaylon Johnson and LB TJ Edwards will play for the Bears — two huge additions Chicago missed on Monday — while Detroit has a number of unknowns with guys like CB Terrion Arnold, T Taylor Decker and LB Jack Campbell somewhat up in the air. There are also ongoing absences on Detroit's defensive line.
As for Monday night, I wrote about not overreacting to that one. It's easy to forget now, but the Bears were debuting a brand new coaching staff and effectively a second debut for QB Caleb Williams after a lost rookie season. They were leading a top-10, 14-win team a season ago by the score of 17-6 through three quarters. That's good news, not bad!
Ben Johnson made some mistakes as a head coach. He burned a bad challenge, and his decision to kick deep was questionable. But he is still a huge asset as an offensive playcaller; the Bears had receivers open all night.
He's also specifically calling plays for Chicago in this game and no longer Detroit!
This is the spot we've waited for all summer, fading the Detroit brain drain and betting on the Chicago additions. Including DC Dennis Allen, Chicago has a top-three playcalling duo while Detroit's unknowns are bottom three until proven otherwise. Johnson knows exactly how to attack and surprise the Lions defense.
I think these teams are relatively equal on talent, but Chicago has taken steps to get ahead in the trenches and at coaching, so this is effectively playing our preseason position on both teams. Factoring those two items in, I make Chicago slightly better on both offense and defense, which means only Detroit's notable indoor home-field advantage is really in its favor.
This is great spot to fade the Monday night overreaction with some Week 2 trends:
- Underdogs when both teams are 0-1 over the last two decades: 53-28-3 ATS (65%)
- Underdogs of 3-to-7 points that failed to cover in Week 1: 41-17-2 ATS (71%) since 2014
- Underdogs that lost Week 1 against an opponent that was a Week 1 underdog itself: 60-33-2 ATS (65%)
I'm not ready to abandon Bears Island because of one disaster fourth quarter in the first game of the season.
Give me Bears +6.5 and let's place a portion of the bet on Bears ML to win outright at +230 (both ESPN Bet). There's still value on the worst-to-first division too at +1300 (Caesars).
Bear Down … but not out!
Picks: Bears +6.5 (1 unit) | Bears ML +235 (0.5 units)
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49ers vs Saints
Stop me if you've heard this before: the 49ers' injury list is long and troubling.
Brock Purdy is officially out for 2-to-5 weeks with turf toe. George Kittle is out along with Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings is questionable. Trent Williams is listed as questionable and had a rough Week 1, while Christian McCaffrey was questionable a week ago before playing somewhat ineffectively with a huge workload.
That's pretty much the entire San Francisco offense, and you're right to be concerned about its futures and long term — but not against the Saints.
Downgrading the 49ers for all those injuries is significant. It pushes the 49ers outside my top 10 offenses and defenses and drops them from the top echelon of Super Bowl contenders to 10th overall — but the Saints are 32nd.
New Orleans has its own injuries. S Julian Blackmon is out, and top pass rusher Chase Young is questionable along with a pair of first-round offensive linemen from an already shaky unit. And the Saints just weren't that good to start with, at anything really.
Purdy is the big loss here, obviously.
This is no longer Mr. Irrelevant. Purdy played like a fringe top-10 QB last season and looked the part leading the 49ers to a comeback win in Week 1. He's a real loss.
Kyle Shanahan's numbers without Purdy or Jimmy Garoppolo are ghastly as a head coach. He's an awful 9-32 SU without them, including 3-17 on the road and 3-9 as a favorite.
If that alone scares you away, I get it.
But you should know that a majority of those losses came with barely competent career backups Brian Hoyer (0-6), Nick Mullens (5-11) and C.J. Beathard (2-10). Trey Lance was a perfectly fine 2-2. Mac Jones is not C.J. Beathard.
Jones is a guy Kyle Shanahan always had his eye on, the perfect point-and-click point guard QB for a Shanahan system. Jones can be successful running this offense; I make him around a 2-to-2.5-point downgrade from Purdy — a bit shy of an industry-consensus four-point drop.
But even with Jones and the injuries, I still have the 49ers favored by almost 10 points because the Saints are that bad.
Drop further for Jones or the loss of Williams and we're still north of 49ers -7, still getting multiple key numbers and sitting at -3 (+100) that could even drop below the bottom key number by kickoff.
You're right to be concerned about the 49ers — against the rest of the league.
The 49ers are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. If we lose to the Saints, so be it.
Editor's Note: 49ers -2.5 is available on FanDuel at -118 — it is worth paying the juice to get under the key number of 3.
Picks: 49ers -3 (1 unit); -2.5 (-118) also worth the juice
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Bills vs Jets
The Jets were one of the more interesting teams in Week 1.
Justin Fields played great football and OC Tanner Engstrand's offense looked very intriguing!
The Jets were super run heavy, by far the most in the league, and Breece Hall rushed 19 times for 107 yards.That included runs of 16, 17 and 18 yards; the Jets saw 7.8% of their outside volume of runs hit 15 or more yards, good for the second-best rate in the league. Only one other team was even above 5% and that was the Ravens — hey, remind me again who the Ravens played last week?
That would be Buffalo of course, New York's new opponent in Week 2.
This is an obvious letdown spot for the Bills after an astonishing comeback on Sunday Night Football, and with a division opponent waiting on Thursday.
Buffalo was repeatedly gashed for long runs, and we have every reason to believe the Jets can run on them.
For whatever reason, Breece Hall has been great at home against the Bills — it's been one of his best two or three games each of the past two seasons — but his numbers are inconsistent enough that I'm targeting just those one or two explosive runs.
Hall has nine rushes of 10 or more yards in his career against Buffalo, his most against any opponent. And the same is true for his five 15+ runs that include rushes of 24, 26, 42, and 83 against the Bills. Buffalo allowed 18 players to have a 14+ yard run last year, with at least one in all but three regular season games.
Let's wait for that one explosive run and play Hall over 14.5 longest rush (-110) DraftKings).
This is an obvious escalator play as well. I call them escalators, not ladders, because escalators do the hard work for you once you reach one step, already approaching the next level for you. If Hall is out in the open 15 yards down the field, why not 20 or 30?
You can nibble longest rush overs of 20+ at +190, 30 at +425, 40 at +800, and 50 at +1650 all at bet365 and hope for one home-run shot.
Picks: Breece Hall over 14.5 longest run (1 unit) | escalators to 20 (0.2 units) and 30/40/50 (0.1 unit each)
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Patriots vs Dolphins
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out while watching film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise.
Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Last season, Miami allowed 13 tight ends to record at least 32 yards — including Henry in both matchups (32 and 44 yards). The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye.
The TE is averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in eight of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 (bet365).
The reception lines might look even better.
Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650 and 7+ at +1300 00 he's hit that top number in 30% of games with Maye.
Picks:
- Henry over 31.5 yards (1 unit) | 50+ yards +270 (0.25 units)
- Henry over 3.5 receptions (0.75 units) | 5+/+300, 6+/+650, 7+/+1300 (0.25 units each)
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Jaguars vs Bengals
We played a tight end against the Bengals in Week 1 — we got the right read but had the wrong guy.
David Njoku disappointed, but rookie Harold Fannin caught seven balls for 63 yards and nine targets.
Brenton Strange is the right guy this time around. He played 79% of the snaps in Week 1 for Jacksonville, way up from his usual snap count in Denver, and it's pretty clear he's the Evan Engram replacement.
Strange caught all four of his targets for 59 yards. He has at least 59 yards in half his games, with at least a 50% snap count for his career and four or more targets in 78% of them.
The Bengals have been abysmal against tight ends. They allowed the most opposing TE points in the league last season in fantasy football, a line of 111 catches for over 1,100 yards and 10 scores. That included at least 55 yards to an opposing tight end 10 times — and another last week with Fannin.
This should be a high-scoring game with both defenses subpar, so we should get plenty of chances for yards.
Play Strange to go over 31.5 yards (-110, BetMGM), and place a portion of your bet on 50+ yards at +270 (bet365).
If you like the Henry and Strange lines, you can play them together for a little No Name TE parlay: +264 for the over 31.5s and +1070 if they both hit 50+ yards at bet365.
Picks:
- Brenton Strange over 31.5 yards (1 unit) | 50+ yards +270 (0.25 units)
- No Name TE Parlay: Henry & Strange both over 31.5 yards +264 (0.25 units) | both 50+ yards +1070 (0.1 unit)
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Panthers vs Cardinals
This is my favorite prop of the week.
The Panthers defense looked terrible in Week 1, maybe as bad as they were last season — especially the run defense. Remember, this is the defense that was last in the league in DVOA last season, including dead last against the run by a mile.
If you magically combined opposing RBs to face Carolina last season into one player, that player had by far the greatest statistical season in NFL history: 486 carries for 2,520 yards and 18 TDs. Only one other team allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground to RBs.
Jacksonville hasn't run the ball well for years. The Jaguars play the Panthers in Week 1 and, voila! Travis Etienne rips off 143 yards on 16 carries.
This could be a breakout game for Drew Petzing's offense, and you always want James Conner overs in games you expect Arizona to win.
Conner averaged 92 rushing yards per game with 10 TDs in 11 wins the last two seasons, compared to just 62 YPG with eight TDs in 18 losses. Those are stark contrasts, which means playing Conner overs can act as a proxy for a Cardinals win.
I love Conner to go over 60.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars). He had 98+ rushing yards in seven of those 11 wins the last two years, so we should place a sizable portion of our bet on 100+ yards at +500 (bet365).
Touchdown bettors will see a green light here at -135, with Conner finding the end zone in seven of those 11 wins. I don't mind that, but I'll just nibble the huge game outcome of 100+ yards and two scores at +1600 (bet365) and hope for a monster game.
If you're looking for it, Tip Reiman was ruled out, so we will not be playing his Anytime TD long shot.
Picks: James Conner escalator: over 60.5 yards (1.5 units) | 100+ yards +500 (0.5 units) | 100+ yards & 2 TDs +1600 (0.1 unit)
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Eagles vs Chiefs
Kansas City's secondary got absolutely torched in Brazil.
Justin Herbert constantly had open receivers; it felt like Ladd McConkey or Keenan Allen were open any time he needed one of them.
Any Chiefs–Eagles game is going to come down to how Jalen Hurts handles Steve Spagnuolo's blitz, and his answer in this matchup has consistently been DeVonta Smith.
Smith is Philadelphia's zone beater, the guy who finds all that open space right where the blitz came from.
A.J. Brown is Philly's man-to-man dominator, but he had only one target in Week 1 and struggled to create separation — I'm not convinced his hamstring is healthy. Besides, Brown hasn't been great against the Chiefs with Philadelphia anyway — 10 catches for 147 yards in three games, and Smith has had more yards in all three games.
Smith has 6/99 and 7/122 in two regular-season matchups and 7/100 and 4/69 in the two Super Bowls. That's an average of six catches for 95 yards, with at least 99 yards in all but the one game when the Eagles were ahead by so much they barely passed the ball.
Smith was invisible in the opener, but this line of 54.5 (BetRivers) is way off considering the way he has dominated this matchup. I'm taking the escalator all the way up.
Start with the traditional over, then play 80+ yards at +300 and 100 yards at +600 (both bet365), a bet he's come within a yard of cashing in three of four games. And, of course, we'll sprinkle 120 yards at +1100 (ESPN Bet) and 140+ at +1900 (DraftKings) just in case.
Picks:
- DeVonta Smith over 54.5 yards (1 unit)
- 80 yards/+300 and 100 yards/+600 (0.25 units each) | 120 yards/+1100 and 140 yards/+1900 (0.1 unit each)
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Falcons vs Vikings
Minnesota was -5.5 on Sunday at some books but is down to a consensus -3.5 and teetering on the precipice of that valuable key number.
I'd wait for Vikings -3. We're already seeing -105 or even +110 on the Minnesota -3.5 ticket so this should hit -3 at some point — or you can pay a few cents for the alternate line.
In this case, the line move makes sense because of the injury report.
Atlanta has cleared Drake London and Darnell Mooney from what had been cluster injuries at WR, and that bumps the Falcons almost a point to the spread for me. Meanwhile, Minnesota will be without LBs Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel, and star LT Christian Darrisaw — that's a definite downgrade.
But even after those swings, I still make Minnesota almost a double-digit home favorite — because these are not equal teams!
What is Atlanta better at??
The Vikings' offensive line is superior. The loss of Darrisaw is not great but Atlanta's pass rush is awful and down two starters from last year's good line.
Minnesota's coaching staff is far better. The Vikings defense is miles and miles better, with Atlanta's defense the clear weak unit in the game. Minnesota's skill players are just as good as Atlanta's, but healthier.
So it comes down to the quarterbacks.
Even though J.J. McCarthy has played exactly one good quarter of NFL football, has Michael Penix Jr. proven much more? Penix has played four career NFL games, none of them against an opponent even remotely like this nasty, aggressive Brian Flores defense he's about to face on the road in primetime.
This is a huge test. Even if you think Penix is better than McCarthy — and you should be uncertain about that — there's no way you should like Penix with the current state of the Falcon's blocking and playcalling against the Vikings defense.
Some of those Week 2 overreaction trends favor Atlanta, and this is our top Luck Rankings play of the week, but I think the line move has already factored that in — and without even really doing much, since -5.5 to -3.5 is mostly across a dead zone.
It's easy to look at both teams and see coin-flip games in Week 1, but those were not the same type of fight.
Atlanta grades out as my No. 28 team right now with Tampa Bay also in the bottom 10 in the awful NFC South. Rosters and coaching put Minnesota and Chicago fringe top 10 in my rankings. It's a big difference fighting to a coin flip in a battle of great teams versus subpar ones.
Raheem Morris has been bad as an underdog and against teams over .500 in his career. Minnesota has a huge coaching advantage, enough to overcome the injuries and get the Vikings safely to 2-0.
Grab -3 if you can get it, but otherwise play the best Minnesota number on Sunday Night Football.
Pick: Vikings -3.5 (1 unit — wait for -3 if possible)
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NFL Week 3 Lookahead Picks
Steelers vs. Patriots
It's Mike Tomlin vs Mike Vrabel — which way do you think the line will go?
This is defense all the way down with Tomlin and Vrabel, and I trust both defenses far more than either offense.
I had the Patriots inside my top 10 before the season started and the Steelers top two. Neither defense was great in Week 1, but it'll take more than one game to give up on all the talent on both rosters, especially against subpar offenses.
Trends will push this one under.
Tomlin unders between 40 and 49 over the first seven Pittsburgh games are 58-24-1 (71%), and Tomlin road unders over the first half of the season are 56-31-1 (64%).
Vrabel has also trended under with totals below 44 at 58% to the under.
As much as anything else, this is a value grab to stay ahead of the number.
We can play under 43 at bet365, and I'm already seeing this as low as 40.5 at one major book. Every number from 40 to 44 is a key number for totals, so get ahead of things with an early under.
Pick: Under 43
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Chiefs vs Giants
I don't need to tell you why the Chiefs are better than the Giants — though I might need you to let me know why this game was chosen for Sunday Night Football?
Let's just focus on the number grab here at -5.5 (FanDuel).
There are two outcomes for the Chiefs this weekend.
Either Kansas City beats Philadelphia in the Super Bowl rematch and gains the confidence of bettors back, pushing this line to -6 or -7, maybe even past both key numbers — or the Chiefs lose again, fall to 0-2, and face an unprecedented-for-them kitchen sink spot against the lowly Giants.
Either way, this line rises!
Heck, just the Giants losing badly to the Cowboys could do that, and they've lost by at least five points in 15 of the last 18 meetings.
There's another reason this line could move in our favor — we might get rookie QB Jaxson Dart making his debut, especially with a Sunday night audience on tap and Brian Daboll not wanting to get himself embarrassed or fired early. Any rookie QB debuting in primetime against an aggressive, blitzing Steve Spagnuolo is likely to struggle.
Really, this is all about the -5.5. If this line somehow moves toward the Giants, we lose very little — four and five aren't particularly important key numbers, and there's no chance this ever gets to -3 or the Chiefs would get hammered.
But if the lines goes the other way, both six and seven are key numbers in today's NFL, and we could even end up at -7.5 on the other side of both.
Play the Chiefs now and stay ahead of the line move.
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
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Brandon's Week 2 Betting Card and Week 3 Lookahead Picks
- Bears +6.5 (1 unit) | Bears ML +235 (0.5 units)
- Vikings -3.5 (1 unit — wait for -3 if possible)
- 49ers -3 (1 unit); -2.5 also worth the juice
- James Conner escalator: over 60.5 yards (1.5 units) | 100+ yards +500 (0.5 units) | 100+ yards & 2 TDs +1600 (0.1 unit)
- Breece Hall over 14.5 longest run (1 unit) | escalators to 20 (0.2 units) and 30/40/50 (0.1 unit each)
- Hunter Henry over 31.5 yards (1 unit) | 50+ yards +270 (0.25 units)
- Henry over 3.5 receptions (0.75 units) | 5+/+300, 6+/+650, 7+/+1300 (0.25 units each)
- Brenton Strange over 31.5 yards (1 unit) | 50+ yards +270 (0.25 units)
- No Name TE Parlay: Henry & Strange both over 31.5 yards +264 (0.25 units) | both 50+ yards +1070 (0.1 unit)
- DeVonta Smith over 54.5 yards (1 unit) | 80 yards/+300 and 100 yards/+600 (0.25 units each) | 120 yards/+1100 and 140 yards/+1900 (0.1 unit each)
- Week 3 Lookahead: Steelers at Patriots under 43 (1.5 units)
- Week 3 Lookahead: Chiefs -5.5 at Giants (1.5 units)
