49ers vs. Seahawks Odds & Betting Predictions - November 24, 2023

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Available at FanDuel. It sounds like Geno Smith should be good to go here, which allows me to dig into this market. In the four games "The Big Four" have been fully healthy (omitting when Deebo Samuel was banged up in the middle of the year), Brock Purdy has averaged 0.39 Passing NEP per drop back (numberFire's EPA metric -- league average tends to hover around 0.10). That's a number that would typically lead the league. As a result, the 49ers are able to put up points in bunches, meaning we don't tend to need much from the opposing side to get an over at 42.5. The 49ers tend to face heavy passing volume on early downs, and the Seahawks have actually excelled there this year. It has been the ground attack and late downs that have bitten them. With a tough ground matchup and no Kenneth Walker, we could see the Seahawks lean more on the pass, an attack that lends itself more toward overs than unders. The loss of Talanoa Hufanga may boost the Seahawks' passing efficiency a bit, as well. My model has this total pretty well clear of this number, allowing me to lay a pretty heavy price at -118.

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