Colts vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

One of our top plays on the Favs

Luck Team Total given on Action Playbook LIVE

This been moving all morning. FD dropped to +115 and will likely keep climbing by kickoff.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tutu is off to a dreadful start: 1 catch for 4 yards through three games. The usage backs it up with a 5.5% target rate and only an 8% expected target rate, so it is tough to project much incoming positive regression. Jordan Whittington has also started to eat into his playing time, which lowers the floor even more. He’s going to have the occasional big play/game in this role, but the floor is too low to float a median of 14.5 right now. It reminds me of when books kept posting Kadarius Toney reception props before they pulled them. Tutu is not quite at that level yet, but even giving him a lot of positive regression in nearly every metric I still land on an average around 14.7 yards, a median closer to 11, and about a 61% chance to stay under 14.5.

Rams-Colts is actually one of the more intriguing games of the week. I remain skeptical of the Colts. They've been incredibly impressive thus far but against about as easy of a schedule as you can come by, and I ranked them most likely among the 3-0 teams to still miss the playoffs. The Colts rank top-three passing on both offense and defense by DVOA, and I'm skeptical of both ratings, but we may need to see more. I lean Rams as the better overall team and a sneaky top-five overall team right now, but I don't love having to pay the hook at -3.5 so instead I'd rather just play my favorite matchup of the week. You may not know the name Kenny Moore, but he's an elite slot corner for the Colts, a Pro Bowler who was one of the main characters on Hard Knocks with the Colts a few years back. He's also out this week, a huge loss in this specific matchup. Puka Nacua has played out of the slot in 50% of his snaps this season, more than double his rate from last season. That's the Davante Adams effect. Adams' presence means he can play outside and absorb the top corner coverage, freeing Nacua to play in the slot where he's most dangerous as a YAC guy. The Colts linebackers have not been great, nor their middle-of-field coverage, and Sean McVay loves to pepper plays that work over and over again until the defense has an answer. Indianapolis might not have one for Nacua in the slot with Moore out. Nacua leads the league in receptions with 29 so far. He's had 10, eight, and 11 in his three games, already over his receptions line of 7.5. That's a steep line for most, but not for Nacua, and we get it at plus money at +108 (DraftKings). Since Week 10 of last season when Nacua returned fully to the Rams lineup after an injury-filled start of the season, he's been absolutely on fire. Including this season, he's played at a pace of 148 catches for over 1800 yards, including 8.7 receptions per game, and he had at least seven receptions in all but one of those games, a remarkably high floor that puts us one away from our over. It's escalator season, and this time we'll take each step along the way, all at DraftKings. Nacua has at least nine catches in 55% of 11 games since Week 10 last season, over half, and we get that at +183. He's hit 10 receptions 36% of the time, and that one's at +303. Those are the main escalator plays, but let's take a nibble on two steps further. We can play 12+ receptions at +820 and even nibble 15+ at +3500, a number that would match Nacua's career-high back from the second game of his career.

Nacua leads the league in receptions (29) and ranks 2nd in targets (35). Indianapolis has surprised on defense, particularly in the secondary, but slot corner Kenny Moore went down in Week 3. He’s now been ruled out for this game. Nacua has done plenty of his damage from the slot and should draw a favorable matchup.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/QiU46AL9YWb

@BKPicks https://myaction.app/FqsJZ7B4YWb

THE BLITZ is forecasting 18.82 rush attempts for Jonathan Taylor compared to 25.22 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 77% of the time, resulting in a 42% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $50.19. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Sorry bout that loss last week (PX fucks so hard)