Miami (FL) vs. Indiana Odds & Betting Predictions - January 20, 2026

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Miami susceptible to explosive runs (10.5% explosive rush rate allowed is bottom 15 in FBS) while Indiana is top 3 in 20-yard rushes. Canes play best OL yet. Cignetti does not take foot off the gas. Not worried about turnovers here. Last time National Champion went under 28 points was Alabama in 2017. Only team in 12-team CFP to do so. Champions score points in the title game.

Gave out on BBOC live

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Gave out on BBOC live. Projecting closer to +220

@The_Oddsmaker

Gave out on BBOC live. Proj closer to 21.5

8.5 available at Bettor Edge for the moment

This is probably not the flashy pick everyone was looking for in a National Championship game, but there’s just too much that makes sense here. First and most importantly, these are two of the slowest teams in the country. Indiana’s offense operates at the 127th slowest pace in the nation, while Miami operates at the 130th slowest pace. Both teams rank bottom 10 in pace, which immediately sets up a slow game script. Both teams are coming off big offensive performances where their previous games went over the total. That might tempt you to look at the over, but I wouldn’t recommend it for a few reasons. Ole Miss versus Miami turned into a shootout, but that was expected. The total was 52.5 because Ole Miss has one of the most explosive offenses in the country paired with a very subpar defense, and they also play at the 14th fastest tempo in the nation. That game going over wasn’t surprising. The Oregon versus Indiana game going over was more shocking, but that final score was largely driven by early, uncharacteristic turnovers by Oregon in their own half of the field. Indiana consistently had short fields, often needing to go only 30 yards to score. This then forced Oregon into a trailing, pass heavy script for the entire second half. I expect this game to look much different, with both teams fighting for every inch in a slow paced battle. Let’s start with Miami. The Hurricanes have been money to the under this season (4-10). Last year, their defense was non existent while their offense was the best in the country. This season has been the complete opposite. Their defense is now top 10 nationally, while the offense is significantly less explosive. Miami owns the best pass rush in the country, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, and that unit has been the driving force behind this postseason run. They completely neutralized both the Ohio State and Texas A&M run and pass games. Ole Miss had some success last week, but that success was a bit misleading. Ole Miss couldn’t even pick up a first down on their first three possessions before a first down run by Kewan Lacy went for 70 yards. The Rebels were then skunked in the third quarter before finally finding some rhythm late. Overall, this Hurricanes defense has been fantastic all season and even better in the postseason. They rank seventh in pass defense, seventh in EPA per rush, and fifth in quality drive rate. Miami’s defense has also been elite at home, allowing just 11.8 points per game over eight home games this season compared to 16.6 points per game on the road. Yes, the Indiana offense and Fernando Mendoza are exceptional, but Miami is not just going to roll over. They rank fourth in PFF defensive grade and will be the best defense the Hoosiers have faced since Ohio State, a game in which Indiana scored just 13 points. Now let’s talk about the Indiana defense. This unit continues to dominate, holding Alabama to three points and Oregon to essentially 15 points before a late garbage time touchdown. Indiana owns the best passing defense in the country and the fourth best rush defense. They also have a top five pass rush, but what really separates them is how they mix coverages on the back end. They consistently confuse quarterbacks and force mistakes, just like we saw last week with Dante Moore. I do have some concern about a potential Carson Beck mistake, but those mistakes could also benefit an under if they occur deep in the red zone. Beck is a veteran and should avoid the catastrophic error, but he will certainly take some sacks. His passer rating drops from 82.8 in a clean pocket to just 49.9 under pressure. Miami’s offensive line is elite, but they can only hold up for so long when the Indiana secondary is offering no easy looks. The Hoosiers rank first in points allowed per quality drive, meaning if they do bend they won’t break. It’s also important to note how run heavy both teams are. Indiana runs the ball on 60.78% of snaps, 15th most in the country, while Miami runs on 53.54% of snaps. Slow teams with run heavy offenses facing elite defenses points me directly to the under. Our model makes this total 47.1, which is below the current market number. Give me under 47.5 in the final game of the college football season (sad).

Whole lotta red

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The enduring image of Beck’s career will be that game-winning scramble against Ole Miss. He still finished that game with -6 rushing yards. That’s kind of his thing this season, 7 games he’s finished with negative rushing yardage, and he’s gone under 3.5 rushing yards in 9 of his 15 starts. Protection wise, Miami has an elite offensive line, but he’s still taken 8 sacks during this playoff run. And that was with optimal game scripts for the most part. Miami has trailed for all of 12:32 during their playoff run. This Indiana run against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon, 11 sacks, and opposing QBs finished with -48 rushing yards. And let’s look at some pocket passer comps Luke Altmyer - Sacked 7 times, -27 rushing Julian Sayin - Sacked 5 times, -29 rushing Ryan Brown - finished with 3 rushing yards Game flow I see Miami being forced into far more known passing situations than they have been on this winning streak. If Indiana can get home 3 times, I just don’t see how he’s going to generate 20 positive rushing yards to get this over the number.

Small fun hedge play against heavy Indiana backed card. If Miami is going to win (or play it close), Toney is going to be a catalyst. Dawson gets Toney involved. He has 11 rush attempts in last four games, a few in the red zone. Home town kid playing for a national championship with his home town university in his home town stadium. Longshot for a reason, but a roulette chip to hedge for an all-time Hurricanes upset.

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