Despite a four-game skid, there are plenty of reasons to believe in the Cougars. Both KenPom and Evan Miya rank the BYU offense 10th nationally. AJ Dybantsa is averaging over 25 points per game in Big 12 play. And most promisingly, the Cougs have held second-half leads over nationally ranked opponents, Texas Tech and Houston, in the past three weeks. They’ve just failed to spring through the finish line tape. That shouldn’t be a problem against Baylor. The Bears have been in a nose-dive since early January. Five of Baylor’s last seven losses have come by double digits. Scott Drew’s dynamic backcourt of Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou desperately needs a frontcourt complement. Perhaps Drew and his staff can find one in the offseason, because his current bigs are stiffs. Baylor gets worked over on the defensive glass (256th), and Drew’s constant tinkering with the lineup hasn’t helped. The Bears are barely inside the top 200 in average height, and Drew doesn’t trust a single player taller than 6’9” to log serious minutes. Even if BYU’s perimeter shots aren’t falling, they’ll get double-digit offensive rebounds and run away from Baylor in the second half.

As a college basketball community, I think we’re underrating the job that Jon Scheyer has done in Durham. Replacing a coaching legend is never easy. Look no further than Adrian Autry at Syracuse to understand the pitfalls of following a coaching icon. But Scheyer has made it look effortless, improving upon his win total in ACC play in each of his first three seasons, while leading Duke to the Round of 32, Elite Eight, and Final Four during those campaigns. Scheyer has also been a gambler’s best friend, covering 60.8% of his games, the best mark in the ACC since his arrival in 2022. Coming off an ACC regular-season loss has been an ideal time to target the Dookies. Under Scheyer, Duke is 9-1 SU in ACC regular-season play following a conference loss. They’ve won those games by an average margin of 16 points per game. This Pitt team, meanwhile, is rudderless, complete with a lame duck coach, a 2-9 record in ACC play, and a 10-14 ATS record at the window. They’ve attempted to slow the pace down (337th), but that hasn’t worked against skilled offensive teams like Louisville and SMU in recent weeks. Duke only scores 10 fastbreak points per game, so they’re comfortable playing through Cam Boozer in the post, which means a slower game won’t help the Panthers. Evan Miya catalogues which teams play up and play down to their competition. When it comes to struggling against quality opponents, Pitt is 364th out of 365 D1 teams. This will be a runaway for a Duke team looking to get right off a loss to UNC.

Gonzaga was upset last week by Portland, a truly stunning outcome out of the WCC. But here’s something I know about Mark Few: When his teams lose, they go on the warpath. Especially when they get to lick their wounds in Spokane. In GU’s first game back home, following a loss, the Bulldogs have won 23 straight games, demolishing their competition by an average margin of 25 points per game. That streak reaches back to 2015. Washington State has been dreadful on the road (2-8 SU), particularly when it comes to shooting the basketball. The Cougars effective field goal percentage dips by 7.4% on the road, and they fail to put any pressure on opposing ball handlers. Wazzu ranks outside the top 290 in both turnover rate and opponent three-point accuracy on defense. With little to no resistance, GU will destroy Wazzu just as they did earlier this year, when they covered as a 16.5-point favorite in Pullman, WA.