Michael Calabrese

A salute to our troops! Army upset a lifeless Kansas State, scored 10 points in the final three minutes to take UNT to overtime, and then beat the crap out of UAB and Charlotte. What that’s done is make them appear closer to last year’s team than they really are. Here’s the underlying stats that prove they’re a below average American team, all they do is run but they’re 99th in success rate, 91st in explosiveness, they’re 40th in havoc avoidance, a stat should be closer to top 10 given their offense style, and they’re 117th in red zone scoring. They’re not explosive, they’re not finishing in the end zone when they march down the field and they’re not equipped to throw it at all. Tulane got the extra two days by playing on Thursday last week to prepare for this game. They have revenge on their mind after getting embarrassed in the American title game up at West Point. Now they’re hosting, Retzlaff is dealing. He was the reason they pulled it out against East Carolina, and I trust him to protect the football which is paramount against a keep-away team like Army. This is a below average Army secondary, not total dogshit, but they’re gettable. If Tulane keeps the turnover margin anywhere north of -1, they cover this number.

Kent State looked fiesty as hell in a narrow loss to Buffalo by 3. Then they basically say the hell with it, we’re shelving our best players in paycheck games. And then reemerge against UMass and lay the wood 42-6. Toledo meanwhile, just choked away a 21-0 lead to Bowling Green. Ready for their second half drive chart PUNT
PUNT PUNT PUNT PUNT FUMBLE PUNT INT END OF GAME Holy Jason Candle. Where is this team at emotionally? Can’t be good. Where is the execution, where is the leadership from Tucker Gleason. And now we’re expecting a four-touchdown win in MAC play? Oh they blew out Akron, so this is a slam dunk right? Just rinse and repeat. Well prior to that blowout, they hadn’t beaten a MAC opponent by four touchdowns in 25 games. It’s just not Candle’s MO, and Kent has way more fight, they have an elite return game to steal yardage and points. Gimme the Fightin’ Julian Edelman’s.

Duck call @Joshua_Nunn 🦆

Winds near 15 MPH are forecasted. Akron can’t pass as it is, and Ball State will be happy to play keep away with their run game.

What have I learned about Texas State in 2025 that I didn’t already know? Not much if we’re being honest. There has been a slight downgrade year over year with the offense, losing McCloud and Mahdi in the backfield hurt a bit. Last season, they were fifth in total yards and seventh in scoring. They’ve fallen back to 15th and 29th respectively there. So they’ve gone from elite to merely really good. Brad Jackson and Beau Sparks and Lincoln Perry are more than enough to score 35 on this Marshall defense. But this defense, goodness gracious. I’ll sum up the entire experience in one run-on sentence. Can’t tackle, can’t stop the run no matter how many are in the box and the turnover well has dried up like an oil deal gone bad. Marshall meanwhile has gone from hopeless in August to fercorious in October. Carlos Del Rio Wilson. In his three starts vs. FBS competition: 13 TDs, 0 turnovers, 305 total yards per game. Points per game, scored and allowed with Del Rio Wilson at the helm? 82! Some came in OT against Louisiana but holy hell. TOTAL OF THE YEAR Texas State plays fast, and Marshall’s pacing is closer to top 30 with Del Rio Wilson running than the show than their season long number which is in the 60s.

The Roadrunners have woken up. They took their lump, fought the good fight in an 18 point loss in College Station, collected their paycheck. But lost the following week in a shootout vs. Texas State. But they’ve won 3 of 4, offense just ragdolled Rice. Perfect balance offensively, McCown has a super deep receiving corps to work with, but he was let down early by his offensive line. 129th in pass pro, but this line was going to take time to gel, they had three transfer making contributions from day 1. What has Justin Burke their OC done? The quick game. He’s cut down on McCown’s aDOT by 15% year over year and saving the deep throws for play action. I saw a lot of waggles and rollouts against Rice, speed outs and bubbles screens. This is a smart coach, with a veteran offense and I trust him to protect McCown with his playcalling. And North Texas, emotional letdown after getting BLASTED in the game of the century by USF. They do not get to the passer very well, 91st in pass rush, only 13 on the entire season. They even made the Western Michigan offense look pretty good. This has shootout written all over it, and I like the Roadrunners to continue their ascent to the top of the American and North Texas needs to prove to me that a freshman QB like Mestemaker can rebound from an embarassing three turnover performacne. I’m willing to pay to see it.

UNLV games have gone over the closing total by an average of 9.8 points per game this season. Boise overs are 4-2. UNLV is getting torn apart on the ground. 120th in ground explosives allowed. Boise State’s numbers fall into two buckets Against nationally ranked USF and Notre Dame: 111 yards per game on the ground at a woeful 3 yards per carry flat. Against the rest of their schedule? 923 yards at 5.5 yards per carry. Dylan Riley breakout game incoming. And the biggest concern I have with Boise is that their fundamentals are trash this season. 123rd in tackling, and they’re dealing with a dangerous mobile QB here in Colandrea. They’ve played two dual threats, Byrum Brown and Liam Szarka. They gave up 71 points to those two.

I don’t trust this Colorado State defense if they’re not getting turnovers. You can throw on them, you can run on them, and they cannot rush the passer to save their life. 132nd PFF. You can rough up Alejado, but if you give him time to cook, I mean just look at the blitz vs no blitz When you drop 7 or more and make him throw into tight windows and get in his face with 3 or 4 rushers PFF passer grade of 62 with 6 TDs and 4 INTs But when you have to blitz to get to him, and he see’s cover 1, cover 0, man to man concepts, look out PFF grade 78, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 4:1 big time throw to turnover worthy grade

Winds are going to be out of control, 30 MPH gusts in the second half.