Let’s unpack the NC State-Virginia matchup first. The Wahoos finished 11-3 last season, but I’m here to tell you they were a slightly above-average team masquerading as a CFP contender. They won three games in overtime and four games in total by six points or less. Of their 11 wins, four came against teams that finished 99th or lower in the final SP+ rankings, and another came over FCS William & Mary. When they traveled to Raleigh to take on this same Wolfpack team, they squandered their red zone opportunities -- two touchdowns in five trips -- and fell 35-31. Now the Cavaliers are faced with an offensive rebuild. They lost their starting quarterback, top two rushers, top three wide receivers, and their All-ACC first-team center. While everything clicked last season, Tony Elliott and his staff are counting on a lot of new pieces gelling in short order, and that starts with Beau Pribula at quarterback. The dual threat is now on his third school in as many years, and while he’s a dynamic runner, he struggles to protect the football. Turnover margin was a big ingredient in Virginia’s secret sauce last season, and I’m skeptical that Pribula can avoid turnover-worthy plays and sacks after what he put on tape last year at Mizzou (12 TWPs, 25 sacks in 10 games). As for NC State, the Wolfpack return a difference-maker at quarterback in junior CJ Bailey. The six-foot-six pocket passer finished 12th nationally in QBR (79.4) and orchestrated an upset of No. 8-ranked Georgia Tech. Dave Doeren, now in his 14th year at NC State, procured Bailey some new weapons when he plucked JoJo Trader and Victor Snow from the portal. Trader is the former blue chipper looking to break out, and Snow arrives as a proven commodity with 19 career touchdowns at Buffalo. Speaking of Doeren, he’s owned Virginia, sporting a perfect 4-0 mark straight up against the Cavaliers. I think he makes it five straight while exposing Virginia as nothing more than an also-ran in the ACC this season. The second leg of this Week 0 parlay kicks off at 10 p.m. Eastern out in Sin City. UNLV, much like Virginia, is trying to validate a double-digit win season by hitting the ground running. But just like UVA, UNLV’s QB1 replacement gives me pause. Jackson Arnold was an abject failure at Auburn. He threw two touchdowns in SEC play while taking 23 sacks. That was also his problem at Oklahoma; he simply doesn’t process fast enough to avoid sacks. And in this game, he’s facing a Lance Guidry defense. In Guidry’s last two stops as a defensive coordinator (Marshall, Miami FL), his defenses’ average national finish in sack rate was 17th. He finds ways to heat up opposing passers, and he has the best G6 transfer portal haul along the defensive line to make it happen. J'Mond Tapp (12 TFLs in ‘25) will likely introduce himself to Arnold before the end of the first drive. Offensively, Kevin Decker is calling the shots, and to put it lightly, it’s an inspired hire by Charles Huff. The former ODU offensive coordinator turned the Monarchs into a terrifying rushing machine (7th, 238 ypg). He did this by leaning on a running quarterback, and he has two quality options to choose from here at Memphis. Air Noland was at one time a top ten high school quarterback recruit, and Marcus Stokes dominated the D-II scene last season. Stokes’ 10 rushing touchdowns indicate that he may be the perfect fit in Decker’s scheme. UNLV’s defense last year left a lot to be desired (SP+ 89th), and now they’re facing a near rebuild (104th in returning production). Paul Guenther struggled to contain running quarterbacks last fall as UNLV’s DC, and that won’t change in this opener. Whether it’s Noland or Stokes, Memphis will move the football and score the Week 0 upset.

I agree with 🦆’s accessment @Joshua_Nunn Here’s his write-up: Cincinnati found itself cruising to a 7-1 start in 2025 behind the arm of Brendan Sorsby, who posted a 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that stretch. The rubber met the road in the last half of the schedule, however, and Cincinnati didn't win another game after Oct. 25. The defense couldn't make stops late in the season, and the front seven was shredded on the ground, allowing 240 or more rushing yards to four of its last five opponents. Sorsby departed for Texas Tech, leaving the Bearcats to turn to either Ivy League transfer Liam O’Brien or journeyman JC French IV, who comes over from Georgia Southern. Needless to say, a downgrade is expected. The running back room is completely bare, with five of the top six ball-carriers gone, as is the receiver room, which saw its top five pass-catchers from last year vacate the premises. Finding explosiveness out of the backs and receivers is going to be crucial for Cincinnati, particularly if French earns the starting quarterback role. He held onto the rock way too long last year and took 30 sacks but also bailed from the pocket and gave up on the pass progression much earlier than necessary on multiple occasions while at Georgia Southern. The offensive line looks to be in decent shape, although Cincinnati will be replacing its starting center and right tackle. With a run game sure to take a step back and a stop-gap quarterback who has a propensity to panic and bail from the pocket, it's safe to assume the sack numbers will increase significantly. The defense was such a liability game after game, but the problems were masked by the offense winning games, so nobody talked about it. The front gave up nearly 4.5 yards per carry last season, and pass coverage appeared to be optional at times in the secondary. Cincinnati gave up 20 touchdown passes, compared to just two total team interceptions. Four of the top defensive backs are gone, so the Bearcats will have to rely on MAC transfers to fill the void. Leading sack man Jake Golday is also gone. The defensive line loses nine of the top 12 contributors, as this unit returns a combined 22 tackles from last season. The special teams unit returns nearly intact, but Cincinnati will have to replace a very reliable kicker in Stephen Rusnak, who made 13-of-17 field goals from last season. The schedule features the home opener against Boston College, followed by FCS Western Carolina and a neutral-site home game against in-state foe Miami (OH) in an NFL stadium. Cincinnati draws perhaps the toughest Big 12 schedule this season, with five road games and matchups against six of the projected top seven teams in Big 12 league play. The Bearcats are likely going to be 'dogs in at least seven conference games this season, including: at Arizona, Oct. 3rd vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 24th vs. Utah, Oct. 31st at Houston, Nov. 7th at Iowa State, Nov. 14th at BYU, Nov. 28th The end of the schedule is brutal, and there's a chance the season goes sideways well before a winnable trip to Ames and Colorado coming to town. There's too much lost production on both sides of the ball and not enough playmakers to replace the explosiveness this offense had last season. I don't have Cincinnati making a bowl game this season.

Sellers is a polarizing player, full stop. He flashed true greatness in 2024, upsetting Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl, tossing five touchdowns against nationally ranked Mizzou and accouting for 350 total yards in an upset of No. 10 Texas A&M. But 2025 was a mess for Sellers and the Gamecocks, dragging his career record as a starter down to 12-12. He was under fire every time he took a snap, suffering 42 sacks. That constant pressure tanked his passing statistics across the board and his dynamic rushing abilities nearly vanished. He was beat to a pulp and regressed as a result. But the good news is that help is on the way. South Carolina hired Kendall Briles to be Sellers’ new offensive coordinator and playcaller. Briles has created statistical monsters everywhere he’s been. At Baylor, a combination of Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham set the world on fire (49 Total TDs in 2015). At Houston, Briles unleashed D’Eriq King on the college football world. King exploded for 50 total touchdowns. Briles was on the bleeding edge of RPO exploration, and King created a pick-your-poison dynamic. An RPO-heavy attack also mitigates offensive line issues, which is great news for a USC offensive line that finished 102nd in pass blocking and 120th in run blocking per PFF. Briles has also elevated a similar player in the SEC four years ago. Across two seasons as Briles’ QB1, K.J. Jefferson completed 68% of his passes, while accounting for 60 total touchdowns. Toss in Briles’ recent work with Josh Hoover at TCU and it’s easy to envision 40 total touchdowns and a boatload of yards for Sellers in this offensive system. The schedule presents stat-padding opportunities early (Kent State, Towson, Miss State) and five to seven ranked opponents offering ample “Heisman Moment” opportunities. Shane Beamer and his staff brought in eight offensive linemen through the portal and retained Nyck Harbor at wide receiver. If some of their new faces in the trenches pop and Harbor makes the expected leap to All-SEC production levels, Sellers will generate the stats to keep him in the Heisman race all season long. The difference between contending and winning it will come down to the upsets South Carolina generates, but at 40:1 this is an excellent value as a centerpiece to a Heisman portfolio.