Lost in the undefeated storyline with the RedHawks is that they’ve been an Over ATM, 7th highest cash rate on over this season at 70%. Now BGSU is on the opposite end of the spectrum, cashing unders at 70%. They have average tempo, a top 100 KenPom defense, so that makes sense. What we see when BGSU is sped up though, against Akron/UMass/Kent the speedy MAC teams, Javontae Campbell gets a green light to score at will. He averaged 27 per game on 15 shots per game, and a staggering 15 FT per game. That was against the other fast MAC teams, how did it go against Miami in Round 1? 176 total points, the over cashed with ease, and Campbell was an efficient 7-for-11 from the field.

Mackey is going to be on fire for this one. Coming off a humbling loss to Michigan, lost at Assembly Hall to the Hoosiers, this is the spot for a Purdue blowout. Indiana by the way, on the road lost by 20 at Illinois, 14 at Michigan, 21 at Michigan State, 9 at Minnesota. You can beat them up and cover big numbers when they’re on the road. Matt Painter, btw, one of the best coaches in American ATS after a loss. Since he started at Purdue in 2005, he’s covered 56% following a loss, seventh best among Power Conference teams in the past 21 years. Perhaps some three point regression looms for opponents, recent games agaisnst MIchigan and Nebraska those two teams shot 46% from 3PT. Hoosiers made 12 three in their first meeting. A little regression and this could be a runaway.

Flag planting time. Illinois can reach at 1 seed now that UConn has stumbled and Houston/Iowa State/Arizona are beating each other up in the Big XII. But they need statement road wins for the committee, not just a DUB, but a blowout, bury Mick Cronin kind of game. Boswell is back and shaking off the rust. I played them against USC earlier this week in a 36 point win. They stayed out in LA, so the travel is a non-factor making the 20 minute cross town drive. And Cronin’s defense has fallen off a god damn cliff this month. Per Torvik, the Bruins are 182nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. And now they have to contend with Illinois’ pick and roll clinic. Underwood and his staff emphasis matchup hunting, putting opponents worst defenders in conflict and attacking relentlessly. This Illinois team has all the weapons you could ever want, an unselfish attitude on shot distribution and an edge from Underwood. I think this is blood in the water time. The Fightin’ Illini’s KenPom O rating is 132.5, that’s 1.5% better than the second best recorded rating in the KenPom database going back to 1997. Duke last year btw.