Thunder vs. Suns Odds & Betting Predictions - April 28, 2026

SGA has cleared 7.5 in two of the first three games but this is a decent sell-high spot. He’s obviously looking to score anytime he touches the ball, and when he does pass, it often turns into a shot. This season, 34% of his passes have led to potential assists, which is already elite. In this series that number has jumped to a ridiculous 41%, and that’s where I’m expecting some regression in Game 4. His pass rate is actually slightly down, and the Thunder are projected for 7 fewer points tonight than their average through three games, with roughly 3 fewer projected team assists as well. Just a tougher environment overall for him to rack up assists. He has 24 assists through three games, but I have his expected closer to 18.7 based on pass volume and pass mix, so he’s run quite a bit over expectation. I was prepared to play under 6.5 at +108 with me projecting him closer to 6.4 assists tonight, but now that books have moved this to 7.5 and juiced the under to -141, I actually prefer this number. I have around a 65% chance he stays under. And the extra assist matters more here than usual. Given SGA’s profile, lower pass volume for someone with his usage, extremely high potential assist rate, and teammates converting at around a 50% expected make rate, he tends to have a narrower range of outcomes. So getting from 6.5 to 7.5 is more valuable than it might look.