Thunder vs. Suns Odds & Betting Predictions - April 28, 2026

#EV 1.38% Pinny -124 BO -125

#EV 2.96% Pinny -105 BM -105

Run it back. Sometimes the best plays are the one's that were right all along, as we've seen time and time again in the playoffs. He's the guy running the offense when Shai sits. Elbow touches, short rolls, decision-maker reads. He had 34 passes and 4 potential assists in Game 2 and only finished with 1 because he was in foul trouble all night and barely played 23 minutes. So not a process error, just variance. According to PropsMadness with Chet on, JDub off, 27-37 passes; he hits this number 66.7% of the time (4/6 games). Despite only have 1 assits in Game 1, his teamates shot 0-3 from 3PT on his passes, and Ajay shot 1-6 FG. As we turn the page to today's game. Now the Thunder are getting Isaiah Joe back for Game 3, which is another piece that was missing. Joe's sharpshooting and McCain's movement shooting from Hart's passing is key in the second unit, and without Joe in Game 2, part of Hart's potential assists died on contested looks. PHX at home in a must-win is going to send help at Shai and Chet harder than ever, which means more kickouts to the second side; and the second side is where Hart is reading the floor. Same thesis as Game 2, cleaner setup, better partner back. Foul trouble is the only real risk and that's not a repeating issue. #PlayerProps

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#EV 4.95% Pinny -103 BO +101

SGA has cleared 7.5 in two of the first three games but this is a decent sell-high spot. He’s obviously looking to score anytime he touches the ball, and when he does pass, it often turns into a shot. This season, 34% of his passes have led to potential assists, which is already elite. In this series that number has jumped to a ridiculous 41%, and that’s where I’m expecting some regression in Game 4. His pass rate is actually slightly down, and the Thunder are projected for 7 fewer points tonight than their average through three games, with roughly 3 fewer projected team assists as well. Just a tougher environment overall for him to rack up assists. He has 24 assists through three games, but I have his expected closer to 18.7 based on pass volume and pass mix, so he’s run quite a bit over expectation. I was prepared to play under 6.5 at +108 with me projecting him closer to 6.4 assists tonight, but now that books have moved this to 7.5 and juiced the under to -141, I actually prefer this number. I have around a 65% chance he stays under. And the extra assist matters more here than usual. Given SGA’s profile, lower pass volume for someone with his usage, extremely high potential assist rate, and teammates converting at around a 50% expected make rate, he tends to have a narrower range of outcomes. So getting from 6.5 to 7.5 is more valuable than it might look.

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#Tailing @JoeDellera

The Thunder took to close out the sweep against the Phoenix Suns on Monday night and I’m targeting a key role player. Isaiah Joe missed last game due to personal reasons but is returning for tonight’s potential closeout game. He should not see any restrictions as a result of that. Every shot Joe has taken this series is a 3 pointer. That’s not hyperbole - he was 3/8 and 2/7 from 3 in the two games he played with no other attempts. Additionally, without Jalen Williams, he does get a bit of extra burn. He’s made 2+ 3s in 76% of games without JDub this season. He’s a sniper from beyond the arc and taking his 3s line as opposed to his 6.5 or 7.5 points line is the way to go.

Would play 15.5 over but definitely like the 14.5

#EV 5.04% Pinny -115 FD -112