Vikings vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Last minute buy-in!

There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Carson Wentz. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 4.83 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 3.50. The model believes there is a 64% chance he records at least 3.5 rush attempts, so there is value on the over at +130. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

#SundaySixPack

Tough schematic matchup that could turn into a system play. Brian Flores has leaned into two-high safety shells at the highest rate in the NFL, structurally capping explosive plays and funnelling throws underneath. That’s translated into a 6.1 opponent aDOT (30th) and the fourth-fewest air yards per completion. No quarterback so far (Penix, Caleb, Browning) has hit a completion longer than 31 yards against Minnesota all year. The coverage is paired with pressure. Flores blitzes more than anyone, creating a 48.0% pressure rate (2nd-most), and often disguises it with late safety rotations and simulated pressure looks. That combination forces quick answers at the line of scrimmage, not extended pocket time for Rodgers to uncork deep sideline fades. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has struggled in true pass sets, meaning Rodgers is far more likely to settle into rhythm throws and shallow crossers than connect on a long shot. Through three weeks, opposing passers have managed only five completions of 20+ yards, zero of 40+, and have been held well below their season-long explosive-play averages. This is versus Odunze, Moore, Chase, Higgins, London. Brian Flores’ scheme is designed to bend but not break, trading splash plays for sustained drives. Against this structure, asking Rodgers to hit a 35-yard strike is betting against the entire identity of Minnesota’s defense. #PlayerProps

It's our first Sunday morning game of the year — and the first ever NFL regular season game in Ireland! — so there's no way we're not betting this one. Aaron Rodgers faces an old foe in the Vikings, and Mike Tomlin and Vikings DC Brian Flores are plenty familiar with one another too. These teams should know what to expect from one another, and one of them will be a somewhat surprising 3-1 by Sunday noon. The Vikings are finally getting healthy and might be a bit underrated because of their roster issues thus far. Star LT Christian Darrisaw finally returned last week and made an immediate huge impact, practically erasing Trey Hendrickson. It looks like C Ryan Kelly will be cleared from concussion protocol in time to play too. Even without first-round G Donovan Jackson, this is the best Minnesota offensive line in years. The Vikings also got Harrison Smith back as the de facto quarterback of the defense, and don't forget WR Jordan Addison is back from suspension this week too. These are not just any old names — those four names together are probably worth two points to the spread, and they explain part of the reason this line has shifted towards Minnesota. A healthy Minnesota squad looks like a top-10 NFL team. The Vikings are finally running well for the first time under Kevin O'Connell and may have backdoor lucked into a power run identity when Aaron Jones got hurt and left Jordan Mason in a bigger role. He should have another big game against a beatable Steelers run defense. The truth is that Pittsburgh's defense has been beatable all around. This is no Steel Curtain. The Steelers have allowed at least 369 in all three games, and that's against a trio of pretty uninspiring offenses: the Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots. That's almost 400 yards a game to Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, and Drake Maye. Pittsburgh allowed over 30 points in two of those games, and New England was wildly unlucky to get only 14 last week thanks to five turnovers, two of them right at the goal line. Pittsburgh's defense has forced eight turnovers, second most in the NFL, but those splash plays aren't always repeatable or predictive — and the constant bleeding of yards and chain-moving is. Minnesota's defense is by far the best unit on the field and the only reliable one right now. The Vikings rank second in Defensive DVOA, and you always know Flores' unit will bring the heat and pressure the quarterback. That's an especially big problem against Aaron Rodgers, who is winless internationally in his career. Rodgers ranks 35th of 36 qualified in PFF grade on the season, and he's dead last when under pressure, an ugly 6-of-22 for just 27% completion with two interceptions. You can hardly blame him, but the old man just doesn't want to take a hit! Excluding Jaguars games (because they play so regularly overseas), favorites in NFL international games are 26-11 ATS, covering 70% of the time. Makes sense, right? Just bet the better team on a neutral field.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Has seen an increased snap share every week, corresponding perfectly with the steelers' share of snaps while leading As 2.5-point underdogs, the script should be relatively neutral, and I'd expect the steelers to be leading more than the 23.9% of snaps they've played this year, and certainly more than the 10.9% of snaps they led in Weeks 1 and 2 combined Warren has a 72% to 28% ratio of zone runs to man/gap concept runs since Arthur Smith became OC in 2024 MIN has struggled vs zone runs, allowing 0.58 more yards per carry vs zone runs in 2023, 1.43 more in 2024, and so far 2.49 yards more, at 4.75 ypc allowed vs zone concept runs Warren himself has performed better with zone runs at 4.13 ypc in zone runs to 3.35 ypc in man/gap runs since the start of last year The Steelers offensive line should also get a boost this week by facing Minnesota who has allowed opponents to put up 1.89 yards per carry before contact against them compared to PIT's other three opponents 1.49 for SEA 1.25 for NYJ 0.39 for NE Overall projecting warren for 15.5 carries at 4.0 ypc for 62 yards, with a median around 59.5 yards

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Jordan Addison returns from his three-game suspension, which should cut Nailor’s playing time. Adam Thielen is in the mix too, and I expect him to mix in more than Brandon Powell or Trent Sherfield did as last year’s WR4. That is a tough combo for a player who already draws a low target rate (13.4%) with a downfield aDOT (15.0) and an expected catch rate of just 47%. Sometimes the OC gets cute and schemes one early. We saw it in Week 2 when they opened with a designed throw to Nailor in the flat for a two-yard gain. The fact they did that so recently makes it a bit less likely to happen again here, When he is on the field he will also be competing with Addison for targets (instead of Thielen), which does not help. I project him at 1.3 receptions with about a 61% chance to stay under 1.5. His one catch could be an explosive one, so I am not interested in fading his yardage prop here.

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon 3 https://myaction.app/JNv2zeOUXWb @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/QiU46AL9YWb

@ChrisRaybon 3 https://myaction.app/kzy8ZyeUXWb

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Jalen Nailor. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.51 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 2.15. The model believes there is a 60% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions. If you can get the under at +125 or better, there is some great value here. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

SKOL Biev

Not playing

Crazy line imo. Darrisaw back yesterday and possibly Kelly back for this game for the Vikings o line. Vikings obviously looked great against Cincy but this is more about selling Pitt than buying high on Minny. Pitt has been dominated every box score yet 2-1. KOC 2-0 ATS/SU in overseas games for what it’s worth